Long Range Box Office Forecast: One Piece Film Red

Photo Credits: Crunchyroll ("One Piece Film Red")

This week’s report dives into initial tracking for Crunchyroll’s latest anime distribution, while updated forecasts for other upcoming films are listed below as usual.

One Piece Film Red
Sony / Crunchyroll
November 4, 2022

PROS:

  • One Piece Film Red currently represents the lone wide release of the November 4 weekend, and the franchise’s global fan base has already sent the film to $120.2 million internationally (mostly from Japan at $112.3 million).

    Anime has become an increasingly strong draw in the domestic market as fans have rallied via grassroots marketing campaigns to drive the box office success of films such as Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero, Jujutsu Kaisen 0: The Movie, and Demon Slayer the Movie during the pandemic era.

    Preliminary tracking for One Piece is comparable to three of them in varying respects depending on which model is given precedence, though as always, forecasts are highly volatile for the evolving genre and its domestic market pull.

    The film will have wide release play and a premium footprint in IMAX and other formats.

CONS:

  • It remains to be seen whether or not this One Piece release is quite as strong of a theatrical draw domestically as the aforementioned IPs, though this growing sector of theatrical releases has a history of over-performing expectations more often than not. Overall social and trailer metrics are not quite at the level of Demon Train or Jujutsu yet, but some models suggest that could change.

    Pre-sales have only just begun as of the writing of this report, so they won’t be included in the universe of tracking samples until at least next week.

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 10/6/22)

Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
10/14/2022 Halloween Ends $37,000,000 – $47,000,000 +6% $69,000,000 – $88,000,000 +6% 3,800 Universal Pictures
10/21/2022 The Banshees of Inisherin           Disney / Searchlight Pictures
10/21/2022 Black Adam $55,000,000 – $70,000,000   $135,000,000 – $175,000,000     Warner Bros. Pictures
10/21/2022 Ticket to Paradise $12,000,000 – $17,000,000   $40,000,000 – $65,000,000     Universal Pictures
10/21/2022 Untitled Paramount           Paramount Pictures
10/28/2022 Prey for the Devil $6,000,000 – $11,000,000   $13,000,000 – $25,000,000     Lionsgate
10/28/2022 Tár (Nationwide Expansion; Limited on October 7)           Focus Features
10/28/2022 Till (Wide Expansion; Limited on October 14)           MGM / UAR / Orion
11/4/2022 One Piece Film Red $8,000,000 – $16,000,000   $14,000,000 – $32,000,000     Crunchyroll / Sony

All above figures represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation before release. These are not final forecasts.

Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections are available to clients. For more information on forecasts, pricing, and availability, please contact us.

News Stories

Forecasts & Tracking

Long Range Box Office Forecast: Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Tracking for Mini-Marvel Franchise Best; Will It Become 2023’s First $100M+ Opener?

Shawn Robbins  • 

2023’s first major tentpole is just four weeks away, representing the first of three Marvel Cinematic Universe theatrical releases this year. Here’s what’s driving preliminary tracking for the anticipated sequel. Ant-Man and the Wasp: QuantumaniaDisney & Marvel StudiosFebruary 17, 2023...