This week’s report takes a preliminary glance at the first weekend of 2023’s final month, with two wide releases scheduled to hit theaters during the post-Thanksgiving lull.
Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé
AMC Theatres Distribution
December 1, 2023
Opening Weekend Range: $27M-$36M
Domestic Total Range: $40M-$80M
PROS:
- As Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour recently showed with its stellar $92.8 million bow, there is significant demand for alternative content in movie theaters—especially during a period when tentpoles and high-profile films aren’t otherwise filling up screens.
- Beyoncé commands a strong fan base that has driven very encouraging pre-sales in recent weeks, leaping past all of November’s releases in overall volume so far. Weekday play, unlike the weekend-only engagements of Eras Tour, could help multipliers.
- The film will not only benefit from a premium screen footprint, including Imax, and minimal competition for two weekends, but an average ticket price currently projected to be north of 20 dollars per ticket.
CONS:
- As Eras Tour proved, concert films cannot be weighed in an apples-to-apples manner with traditional films when tracking box office potential. Swift’s film was notably front-loaded in the pre-sales window, and that’s a fair expectation to have of Renaissance.
- Though incredibly influential and popular in her own right, Beyoncé’s fanbase is not expected to be as rabid as Swift’s in terms of driving demand. Nevertheless, Renaissance still has a chance at snagging the second biggest concert film opening in history.
- Following a string of female-driven films in November, competition will be worth keeping in mind as Disney’s Wish, in particular, hopes to prove its staying power.
Silent Night
Lionsgate
December 1, 2023
Opening Weekend Range: $5M-$10M
Domestic Total Range: $13M-$30M
PROS:
- Fans of iconic action director John Woo could drive demand to this holiday-themed genre film designed to appeal to fans of last year’s Violent Night, Die Hard, and similar R-rated vengeance pics.
CONS:
- As Violent Night showed with its $13.5 million debut, the post-Thanksgiving window makes it challenging for films to break out, as holdovers settle in for long runs and consumers enter the depths of the Christmas shopping season. Still, Violent Night‘s run proved leggy due to strong reception; similar word of mouth could help Silent Night in the long run as well.
Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 11/2/23)
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | 5-Day (WTFSS) Opening Low/High Range | Domestic Total Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | Distributor |
| 11/10/2023 | The Holdovers (Wide Expansion; LA+NY Oct. 27, Limited Nov. 3) | Focus Features | |||||
| 11/10/2023 | The Marvels | $45,000,000 – $62,000,000 | -2% | $109,000,000 – $156,000,000 | -2% | Disney / Marvel Studios | |
| 11/10/2023 | Journey to Bethlehem | $2,000,000 – $6,000,000 | -11% | $5,000,000 – $20,000,000 | -11% | Sony / AFFIRM Films | |
| 11/17/2023 | The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes | $38,000,000 – $50,000,000 | +1% | $97,000,000 – $157,000,000 | +1% | Lionsgate | |
| 11/17/2023 | Next Goal Wins | $4,000,000 – $9,000,000 | -7% | $12,800,000 – $31,500,000 | -7% | Disney / Searchlight Pictures | |
| 11/17/2023 | Thanksgiving | $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 | -7% | $22,000,000 – $40,000,000 | -6% | Sony / TriStar Pictures | |
| 11/17/2023 | Trolls Band Together | $23,000,000 – $33,000,000 | $73,000,000 – $120,000,000 | Universal Pictures | |||
| 11/22/2023 | Napoleon | $16,000,000 – $21,000,000 | $23,000,000 – $32,000,000 | $54,000,000 – $74,000,000 | Sony Pictures / Apple | ||
| 11/22/2023 | Saltburn (Expansion; Limited Nov. 17) | Amazon Studios / MGM | |||||
| 11/22/2023 | Wish | $40,000,000 – $60,000,000 | -7% | $57,000,000 – $86,800,000 | $165,000,000 – $289,000,000 | Walt Disney Pictures | |
| 12/1/2023 | Godzilla Minus One | Toho International | |||||
| 12/1/2023 | Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé | $27,000,000 – $36,000,000 | $40,000,000 – $80,000,000 | AMC Theatres Distribution | |||
| 12/1/2023 | The Shift | Angel Studios | |||||
| 12/1/2023 | Silent Night | $5,000,000 – $10,000,000 | $13,000,000 – $30,000,000 | Lionsgate |
Unless otherwise noted, all figures above represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation at the time of this report’s publication date. These are statistical snapshots, not final forecasts.
Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections for theatrical movies up to 12 months from release are available to clients.
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