Long Range Box Office Forecast: Renfield and The Pope’s Exorcist, Plus John Wick: Chapter 4 Updates

Photo Credits: Universal ("Renfield"); Sony ("The Pope's Exorcist")

This week’s forecast takes an early look at two major studio releases slated for April 14, The Pope’s Exorcist and Renfield.

Also scheduled to open that weekend are Crunchyroll’s Suzume and Briarcliff Entertainment’s Sweetwater, though forecasts are not currently offered for those.

Initial takeaways and forecasts for those and other upcoming films are below.

PROS:

  • The Pope’s Exorcist could attract fans of R-rated supernatural horror with some appeal to adult audiences thanks to its star, Russell Crowe.
  • Renfield carries a playful horror-comedy tone that should catch on with young male and female audiences, bolstered by its leads Nicholas Hoult, Nicolas Cage, and Awkwafina. Early social footprints and trailer engagement are very positive, a testament to Universal’s reputation for tapping into young audience interest with edgy films in the wake of M3GAN and Cocaine Bear earlier this year.
  • Closer on the horizon, John Wick: Chapter 4 continues to make gains with strong industry reviews driving additional optimism. There’s also the recent news that this may be the last outing for Keanu Reeves in the franchise for the foreseeable future, perhaps creating a sort of finale factor for this installment rather than any previously cautioned diminishing returns.

CONS:

  • Initial tracking for Pope’s Exorcist is on the conservative end as the R rating will keep out much of the younger horror audience and many of March’s holdovers will still be in the mix.
  • Renfield models aren’t quite up to the level of Cocaine Bear just yet, and the staying power for Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves could be somewhat impactful in mid-April should the latter film’s word of mouth take off and/or this one’s doesn’t.

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 3/17/23)

Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week 5-Day (WTFSS) Opening Low/High Range Domestic Total Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Distributor
3/24/2023 John Wick: Chapter 4 $59,000,000 – $74,000,000 +36%   $156,000,000 – $210,000,000 +38% Lionsgate
3/31/2023 Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves $21,000,000 – $30,000,000     $52,000,000 – $110,000,000 +16% Paramount Pictures
3/31/2023 Good Person (Wide Expansion; Limited on 3/24/23)           United Artists Releasing
3/31/2023 His Only Son           Angel Studios
3/31/2023 A Thousand and One           Focus Features
4/5/2023 Air $6,000,000 – $11,000,000     $20,000,000 – $39,000,000   Amazon Studios
4/5/2023 On a Wing and a Prayer           United Artists Releasing
4/5/2023 The Super Mario Bros. Movie $71,000,000 – $105,000,000   $94,000,000 – $141,000,000 $301,000,000 – $427,000,000   Universal Pictures
4/7/2023 Paint           IFC Films
4/14/2023 Nefarious           Soli Deo Gloria Releasing
4/14/2023 The Pope’s Exorcist $4,000,000 – $9,000,000     $9,000,000 – $24,000,000   Sony Pictures / Screen Gems
4/14/2023 Renfield $14,000,000 – $19,000,000     $37,000,000 – $55,000,000   Universal Pictures
4/14/2023 Suzume           Crunchyroll / Sony
4/14/2023 Sweetwater           Briarcliff Entertainment

Unless otherwise noted, all figures above represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation at the time of this report’s publication date. These are statistical snapshots, not final forecasts.

Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections for theatrical movies up to 12 months from release are available to clients.

For more information about this article or to report any corrections, please contact the author.

Photo Credits: Universal ("Renfield"); Sony ("The Pope's Exorcist")
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