This week’s forecast takes an early look at two major studio releases slated for April 14, The Pope’s Exorcist and Renfield.
Also scheduled to open that weekend are Crunchyroll’s Suzume and Briarcliff Entertainment’s Sweetwater, though forecasts are not currently offered for those.
Initial takeaways and forecasts for those and other upcoming films are below.
PROS:
- The Pope’s Exorcist could attract fans of R-rated supernatural horror with some appeal to adult audiences thanks to its star, Russell Crowe.
- Renfield carries a playful horror-comedy tone that should catch on with young male and female audiences, bolstered by its leads Nicholas Hoult, Nicolas Cage, and Awkwafina. Early social footprints and trailer engagement are very positive, a testament to Universal’s reputation for tapping into young audience interest with edgy films in the wake of M3GAN and Cocaine Bear earlier this year.
- Closer on the horizon, John Wick: Chapter 4 continues to make gains with strong industry reviews driving additional optimism. There’s also the recent news that this may be the last outing for Keanu Reeves in the franchise for the foreseeable future, perhaps creating a sort of finale factor for this installment rather than any previously cautioned diminishing returns.
CONS:
- Initial tracking for Pope’s Exorcist is on the conservative end as the R rating will keep out much of the younger horror audience and many of March’s holdovers will still be in the mix.
- Renfield models aren’t quite up to the level of Cocaine Bear just yet, and the staying power for Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves could be somewhat impactful in mid-April should the latter film’s word of mouth take off and/or this one’s doesn’t.
Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 3/17/23)
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | 5-Day (WTFSS) Opening Low/High Range | Domestic Total Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | Distributor |
| 3/24/2023 | John Wick: Chapter 4 | $59,000,000 – $74,000,000 | +36% | $156,000,000 – $210,000,000 | +38% | Lionsgate | |
| 3/31/2023 | Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves | $21,000,000 – $30,000,000 | $52,000,000 – $110,000,000 | +16% | Paramount Pictures | ||
| 3/31/2023 | Good Person (Wide Expansion; Limited on 3/24/23) | United Artists Releasing | |||||
| 3/31/2023 | His Only Son | Angel Studios | |||||
| 3/31/2023 | A Thousand and One | Focus Features | |||||
| 4/5/2023 | Air | $6,000,000 – $11,000,000 | $20,000,000 – $39,000,000 | Amazon Studios | |||
| 4/5/2023 | On a Wing and a Prayer | United Artists Releasing | |||||
| 4/5/2023 | The Super Mario Bros. Movie | $71,000,000 – $105,000,000 | $94,000,000 – $141,000,000 | $301,000,000 – $427,000,000 | Universal Pictures | ||
| 4/7/2023 | Paint | IFC Films | |||||
| 4/14/2023 | Nefarious | Soli Deo Gloria Releasing | |||||
| 4/14/2023 | The Pope’s Exorcist | $4,000,000 – $9,000,000 | $9,000,000 – $24,000,000 | Sony Pictures / Screen Gems | |||
| 4/14/2023 | Renfield | $14,000,000 – $19,000,000 | $37,000,000 – $55,000,000 | Universal Pictures | |||
| 4/14/2023 | Suzume | Crunchyroll / Sony | |||||
| 4/14/2023 | Sweetwater | Briarcliff Entertainment |
Unless otherwise noted, all figures above represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation at the time of this report’s publication date. These are statistical snapshots, not final forecasts.
Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections for theatrical movies up to 12 months from release are available to clients.
For more information about this article or to report any corrections, please contact the author.
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