Despite the lack of clear event-level releases this holiday season, studios will offer a number of choices through the holiday period through to the end of 2023, with one film in particular likely to stand out on Christmas.
The Color Purple
Warner Bros. Pictures
December 25, 2023
Opening Weekend Range: $13M+
Domestic Total Range: $59M+
WEEKEND PROS:
- The Color Purple‘s early marketing imprint is generating stronger pre-sales and social media metrics than those of West Side Story and In the Heights. The remake’s combination of star power and mega-producer credentials (Oprah Winfrey and Steven Spielberg), plus appeal to an under-served audience and potential award season candidacy could help the film resonate in a notable way. Long-tail holdover power could also be extended by the Martin Luther King, Jr. holiday in January.
- Though the exact scope of how wide their releases will be is at this point unknown, MGM’s The Boys in the Boat and NEON’s Ferrari each have their own potentially distinct appeal to moviegoers over the holiday. The former is a sports underdog story helmed by George Clooney, while the latter features a buzzed-about performance from Adam Driver, working with director Michael Mann.
WEEKEND CONS:
- Musicals have notoriously had a feast-or-famine showing at the box office in recent years, from the highs of The Greatest Showman and Mary Poppins Returns to the aforementioned West Side Story remake and In the Heights. As The Color Purple also focuses on challenging subject matter, it might not benefit from the same kind of crowd-pleasing buzz as more successful musically-driven films.
- It remains to be seen how aggressively or conservatively MGM and NEON will market Boys in the Boat and Ferrari, respectively, creating some added volatility to expectations. With that in mind, similar prestige releases have regularly performed at more restrained box office levels in recent years as consumers (especially adults) become more selective with which films earn their time and money in theaters.
Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 11/30/23)
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | 4-Day (FSSM) Opening Low/High Range | Domestic Total Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | Distributor |
| 12/8/2023 | The Boy and the Heron | GKIDS | |||||
| 12/8/2023 | Eileen (Wide Expansion; Platform Dec. 1) | NEON | |||||
| 12/8/2023 | Poor Things (Limited) | Disney / Searchlight Pictures | |||||
| 12/15/2023 | American Fiction (Limited) | MGM / MRC | |||||
| 12/15/2023 | Concrete Utopia (Wide Expansion; NY+LA on Dec. 8) | Lotte Entertainment | |||||
| 12/15/2023 | Wonka | $32,000,000 – $42,000,000 | +20% | $175,000,000 – $252,000,000 | +23% | Warner Bros. Pictures | |
| 12/22/2023 | All of Us Strangers (Limited) | Disney / Searchlight Pictures | |||||
| 12/22/2023 | American Fiction (Expansion) | MGM / MRC | |||||
| 12/22/2023 | Anyone But You | $1,000,000 – $3,000,000 | $2,000,000 – $10,000,000 | Sony / Columbia Pictures | |||
| 12/22/2023 | Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom | $32,000,000 – $42,000,000 | -3% | $42,000,000 – $56,000,000 | $105,000,000 – $168,000,000 | Warner Bros. Pictures | |
| 12/22/2023 | The Iron Claw | $2,000,000 – $5,000,000 | $10,000,000 – $26,000,000 | A24 | |||
| 12/22/2023 | Migration | $20,000,000 – $30,000,000 | -8% | $28,000,000 – $42,000,000 | $112,000,000 – $250,000,000 | Universal Pictures / Illumination | |
| 12/22/2023 | Salaar: Part 1 Ceasefire | Prathyangira Cinemas | |||||
| 12/25/2023 | The Boys in the Boat | $1,500,000 – $4,000,000 | $8,000,000 – $16,000,000 | MGM | |||
| 12/25/2023 | The Color Purple | $13,000,000+ | $59,000,000+ | Warner Bros. Pictures | |||
| 12/25/2023 | Ferrari | $3,000,000 – $7,000,000 | $12,000,000 – $35,000,000 | NEON |
Unless otherwise noted, all figures above represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation at the time of this report’s publication date. These are statistical snapshots, not final forecasts.
Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections for theatrical movies up to 12 months from release are available to clients.
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