Long Range Box Office Forecast: The Covenant and Evil Dead Rise

Photo Credits: MGM & STXfilms ("The Covenant"); Warner Bros. Pictures ("Evil Dead Rise")

This week’s report takes an early look at two wide releases slated for Friday, April 21: Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant and Warner Bros.’ Evil Dead Rise.

Additional notes and forecasts are below.


  • As a continuation of the successful cult classic horror franchise, Evil Dead Rise should draw die-hard fans on opening weekend in efforts to mimic the 2013 reboot’s $25.8 million domestic opening. Sam Raimi and Bruce Campbell’s involvement serve as an added bonus for fan goodwill going into release.
  • Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant is making a play for adult male audiences that drove films like Plane in recent months, and an early marketing campaign bodes well toward the goal of at least out-performing the recent Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre, which was undone by late release strategy and minimal marketing.
  • Paramount’s Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves currently stands at 87 percent from 60 reviews on Rotten Tomatoes, underscoring sleeper potential among the uninitiated beyond a fan base, the latter of which is still expected to drive healthy numbers in a wide array of preview shows before opening weekend.
  • Angel Studios’ His Only Son is generating respectable ticket sales as the studio spins off from prior partnership distributions with Fathom Events for this latest faith-based film catering to fans of Jesus Revolution, The Chosen, Son of God, et al.


  • Early social traction for Evil Dead Rise isn’t on par with recent horror breakouts, and reactions among the vocal fan base will be key to watch in the weeks ahead as buzz evolves. Shake-ups within and above the Warner Bros. heirarchy have also created some volatility in expectations for how much will be invested into a full marketing push for this kind of title.
  • After a March packed with male-driven films, The Covenant will need to generate strong word of mouth in order to top current expectations as the typical box office doldrums of late April approach before summer kicks off in May.

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 3/24/23)

Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week 5-Day (WTFSS) Opening Low/High Range Domestic Total Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Distributor
3/31/2023 Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves $27,000,000 – $36,000,000 +14%   $67,000,000 – $135,000,000 +14% Paramount Pictures
3/31/2023 A Good Person (Wide Expansion; Limited on 3/24/23)           United Artists Releasing
3/31/2023 His Only Son $2,000,000 – $6,000,000     $5,000,000 – $20,000,000   Angel Studios
3/31/2023 A Thousand and One           Focus Features
4/5/2023 Air $6,000,000 – $11,000,000     $20,000,000 – $39,000,000   Amazon Studios
4/5/2023 On a Wing and a Prayer           United Artists Releasing
4/5/2023 The Super Mario Bros. Movie $71,000,000 – $105,000,000   $94,000,000 – $141,000,000 $301,000,000 – $427,000,000   Universal Pictures
4/7/2023 Paint           IFC Films
4/14/2023 Mafia Mamma           Bleecker Street
4/14/2023 Nefarious           Soli Deo Gloria Releasing
4/14/2023 The Pope’s Exorcist $4,000,000 – $9,000,000     $9,000,000 – $24,000,000   Sony Pictures / Screen Gems
4/14/2023 Renfield $14,000,000 – $19,000,000     $37,000,000 – $55,000,000   Universal Pictures
4/14/2023 Suzume           Crunchyroll / Sony
4/14/2023 Sweetwater           Briarcliff Entertainment
4/21/2023 Beau Is Afraid           A24
4/21/2023 Chevalier           Disney / Searchlight Pictures
4/21/2023 The Covenant $4,000,000 – $8,000,000     $11,000,000 – $27,000,000   MGM & STX Films
4/21/2023 Evil Dead Rise $21,000,000 – $30,000,000     $42,000,000 – $67,000,000   Warner Bros. Pictures

Unless otherwise noted, all figures above represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation at the time of this report’s publication date. These are statistical snapshots, not final forecasts.

Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections for theatrical movies up to 12 months from release are available to clients.

For more information about this article or to report any corrections, please contact the author.

Photo Credits: MGM & STXfilms ("The Covenant"); Warner Bros. Pictures ("Evil Dead Rise")

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