This week’s report takes an early look at two wide releases slated for Friday, April 21: Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant and Warner Bros.’ Evil Dead Rise.
Additional notes and forecasts are below.
PROS:
- As a continuation of the successful cult classic horror franchise, Evil Dead Rise should draw die-hard fans on opening weekend in efforts to mimic the 2013 reboot’s $25.8 million domestic opening. Sam Raimi and Bruce Campbell’s involvement serve as an added bonus for fan goodwill going into release.
- Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant is making a play for adult male audiences that drove films like Plane in recent months, and an early marketing campaign bodes well toward the goal of at least out-performing the recent Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre, which was undone by late release strategy and minimal marketing.
- Paramount’s Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves currently stands at 87 percent from 60 reviews on Rotten Tomatoes, underscoring sleeper potential among the uninitiated beyond a fan base, the latter of which is still expected to drive healthy numbers in a wide array of preview shows before opening weekend.
- Angel Studios’ His Only Son is generating respectable ticket sales as the studio spins off from prior partnership distributions with Fathom Events for this latest faith-based film catering to fans of Jesus Revolution, The Chosen, Son of God, et al.
CONS:
- Early social traction for Evil Dead Rise isn’t on par with recent horror breakouts, and reactions among the vocal fan base will be key to watch in the weeks ahead as buzz evolves. Shake-ups within and above the Warner Bros. heirarchy have also created some volatility in expectations for how much will be invested into a full marketing push for this kind of title.
- After a March packed with male-driven films, The Covenant will need to generate strong word of mouth in order to top current expectations as the typical box office doldrums of late April approach before summer kicks off in May.
Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 3/24/23)
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | 5-Day (WTFSS) Opening Low/High Range | Domestic Total Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | Distributor |
| 3/31/2023 | Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves | $27,000,000 – $36,000,000 | +14% | $67,000,000 – $135,000,000 | +14% | Paramount Pictures | |
| 3/31/2023 | A Good Person (Wide Expansion; Limited on 3/24/23) | United Artists Releasing | |||||
| 3/31/2023 | His Only Son | $2,000,000 – $6,000,000 | $5,000,000 – $20,000,000 | Angel Studios | |||
| 3/31/2023 | A Thousand and One | Focus Features | |||||
| 4/5/2023 | Air | $6,000,000 – $11,000,000 | $20,000,000 – $39,000,000 | Amazon Studios | |||
| 4/5/2023 | On a Wing and a Prayer | United Artists Releasing | |||||
| 4/5/2023 | The Super Mario Bros. Movie | $71,000,000 – $105,000,000 | $94,000,000 – $141,000,000 | $301,000,000 – $427,000,000 | Universal Pictures | ||
| 4/7/2023 | Paint | IFC Films | |||||
| 4/14/2023 | Mafia Mamma | Bleecker Street | |||||
| 4/14/2023 | Nefarious | Soli Deo Gloria Releasing | |||||
| 4/14/2023 | The Pope’s Exorcist | $4,000,000 – $9,000,000 | $9,000,000 – $24,000,000 | Sony Pictures / Screen Gems | |||
| 4/14/2023 | Renfield | $14,000,000 – $19,000,000 | $37,000,000 – $55,000,000 | Universal Pictures | |||
| 4/14/2023 | Suzume | Crunchyroll / Sony | |||||
| 4/14/2023 | Sweetwater | Briarcliff Entertainment | |||||
| 4/21/2023 | Beau Is Afraid | A24 | |||||
| 4/21/2023 | Chevalier | Disney / Searchlight Pictures | |||||
| 4/21/2023 | The Covenant | $4,000,000 – $8,000,000 | $11,000,000 – $27,000,000 | MGM & STX Films | |||
| 4/21/2023 | Evil Dead Rise | $21,000,000 – $30,000,000 | $42,000,000 – $67,000,000 | Warner Bros. Pictures |
Unless otherwise noted, all figures above represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation at the time of this report’s publication date. These are statistical snapshots, not final forecasts.
Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections for theatrical movies up to 12 months from release are available to clients.
For more information about this article or to report any corrections, please contact the author.
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