COurtesy Murray Close/Lionsgate, Courtesy of Tristar Pictures/©2023 CTMG. All Rights Reserved., © DreamWorks Animation. All Rights Reserved.

The weekend before Thanksgiving brings some much-needed films to cinemas, as several new releases hit the big screen and holiday season ramps up.


  • The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes is aiming to bring back faithful fans of its source material and the four blockbuster films released between 2012 and 2015. Collectively, they earned $1.45 billion at the domestic box office. A strong ensemble cast and the return of director Francis Lawrence are also notable factors.
  • Eli Roth’s feature-length adaptation of a faux parody trailer he created for 2007’s Grindhouse should attract his fans, who have clamored for the full film treatment in the time since. Potential appeal to a broader horror-slasher audience could be on the menu if it reception is positive going into the titular holiday period.
  • After another drought of kid-friendly animated films in dating back to late September’s PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie, this could be a lucrative spot for Trolls Band Together to bring back fans of the generational franchise and previous two films. The 2016 original earned $153.7 million domestically.


  • Preliminary social metrics for Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes are far below those of its franchise predecessors and more comparable to the recent Fantastic Beasts sequels in the Harry Potter universe. This is reflective of an overall decline in the former heat created by young adult-leaning films one decade ago.

    Moreover, Jennifer Lawrence’s rise to stardom during the film franchise’s original release will obviously not be a factor here; franchise prequels rarely drum up the same excitement as what’s come before. Competition for the target female audience will be considerable with The Marvels opening one week earlier, Trolls Band Together bowing on the same weekend, and Disney’s Wish five days later.
  • Horror films often see a decline in must-see demand after Halloween, so Thanksgiving will need to stand out beyond Roth’s core audience to avoid a front-loaded run.
  • Female audience competition is also a consideration for Trolls Band Together, particularly from Wish the following week. Animated sequels also have a consistent history of diminished returns, and Trolls itself has been well exposed with its straight-to-streaming sequel, Trolls World Tour, during the pandemic and a Netflix series that ran from 2018 to 2019.

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 10/19/23)

Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Distributor
10/27/2023 After Death         Angel Studios
10/27/2023 Five Nights at Freddy’s $56,000,000 – $80,000,000 +43% $90,000,000 – $172,000,000 +23% Universal Pictures / Blumhouse
10/27/2023 Freelance         Relativity Media
10/27/2023 Inspector Sun         Viva Pictures
10/27/2023 Sight         Briarcliff Entertainment
11/3/2023 The Marsh King’s Daughter         STX / Lionsgate / Roadside Attractions
11/3/2023 Priscilla $3,000,000 – $8,000,000   $10,000,000 – $27,000,000   A24
11/3/2023 What Happens Later         Bleecker Street
11/10/2023 The Holdovers (Wide Expansion; LA+NY Oct. 27, Limited Nov. 3)         Focus Features
11/10/2023 The Marvels $50,000,000 – $75,000,000 -2% $121,000,000 – $189,000,000 -2% Disney / Marvel Studios
11/10/2023 Journey to Bethlehem $4,000,000 – $9,000,000   $15,000,000 – $38,000,000   Sony / AFFIRM Films
11/17/2023 The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes $35,000,000 – $45,000,000   $90,000,000 – $142,000,000   Lionsgate
11/17/2023 Next Goal Wins         Disney / Searchlight Pictures
11/17/2023 Thanksgiving $10,000,000 – $15,000,000   $22,000,000 – $40,000,000   Sony / TriStar Pictures
11/17/2023 Trolls Band Together $21,000,000 – $31,000,000   $68,000,000 – $113,000,000   Universal Pictures

Unless otherwise noted, all figures above represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation at the time of this report’s publication date. These are statistical snapshots, not final forecasts.

Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections for theatrical movies up to 12 months from release are available to clients.

COurtesy Murray Close/Lionsgate, Courtesy of Tristar Pictures/©2023 CTMG. All Rights Reserved., © DreamWorks Animation. All Rights Reserved.

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