The weekend before Thanksgiving brings some much-needed films to cinemas, as several new releases hit the big screen and holiday season ramps up.
PROS:
- The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes is aiming to bring back faithful fans of its source material and the four blockbuster films released between 2012 and 2015. Collectively, they earned $1.45 billion at the domestic box office. A strong ensemble cast and the return of director Francis Lawrence are also notable factors.
- Eli Roth’s feature-length adaptation of a faux parody trailer he created for 2007’s Grindhouse should attract his fans, who have clamored for the full film treatment in the time since. Potential appeal to a broader horror-slasher audience could be on the menu if it reception is positive going into the titular holiday period.
- After another drought of kid-friendly animated films in dating back to late September’s PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie, this could be a lucrative spot for Trolls Band Together to bring back fans of the generational franchise and previous two films. The 2016 original earned $153.7 million domestically.
CONS:
- Preliminary social metrics for Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes are far below those of its franchise predecessors and more comparable to the recent Fantastic Beasts sequels in the Harry Potter universe. This is reflective of an overall decline in the former heat created by young adult-leaning films one decade ago.
Moreover, Jennifer Lawrence’s rise to stardom during the film franchise’s original release will obviously not be a factor here; franchise prequels rarely drum up the same excitement as what’s come before. Competition for the target female audience will be considerable with The Marvels opening one week earlier, Trolls Band Together bowing on the same weekend, and Disney’s Wish five days later.
- Horror films often see a decline in must-see demand after Halloween, so Thanksgiving will need to stand out beyond Roth’s core audience to avoid a front-loaded run.
- Female audience competition is also a consideration for Trolls Band Together, particularly from Wish the following week. Animated sequels also have a consistent history of diminished returns, and Trolls itself has been well exposed with its straight-to-streaming sequel, Trolls World Tour, during the pandemic and a Netflix series that ran from 2018 to 2019.
Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 10/19/23)
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | Distributor |
| 10/27/2023 | After Death | Angel Studios | ||||
| 10/27/2023 | Five Nights at Freddy’s | $56,000,000 – $80,000,000 | +43% | $90,000,000 – $172,000,000 | +23% | Universal Pictures / Blumhouse |
| 10/27/2023 | Freelance | Relativity Media | ||||
| 10/27/2023 | Inspector Sun | Viva Pictures | ||||
| 10/27/2023 | Sight | Briarcliff Entertainment | ||||
| 11/3/2023 | The Marsh King’s Daughter | STX / Lionsgate / Roadside Attractions | ||||
| 11/3/2023 | Priscilla | $3,000,000 – $8,000,000 | $10,000,000 – $27,000,000 | A24 | ||
| 11/3/2023 | What Happens Later | Bleecker Street | ||||
| 11/10/2023 | The Holdovers (Wide Expansion; LA+NY Oct. 27, Limited Nov. 3) | Focus Features | ||||
| 11/10/2023 | The Marvels | $50,000,000 – $75,000,000 | -2% | $121,000,000 – $189,000,000 | -2% | Disney / Marvel Studios |
| 11/10/2023 | Journey to Bethlehem | $4,000,000 – $9,000,000 | $15,000,000 – $38,000,000 | Sony / AFFIRM Films | ||
| 11/17/2023 | The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes | $35,000,000 – $45,000,000 | $90,000,000 – $142,000,000 | Lionsgate | ||
| 11/17/2023 | Next Goal Wins | Disney / Searchlight Pictures | ||||
| 11/17/2023 | Thanksgiving | $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 | $22,000,000 – $40,000,000 | Sony / TriStar Pictures | ||
| 11/17/2023 | Trolls Band Together | $21,000,000 – $31,000,000 | $68,000,000 – $113,000,000 | Universal Pictures |
Unless otherwise noted, all figures above represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation at the time of this report’s publication date. These are statistical snapshots, not final forecasts.
Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections for theatrical movies up to 12 months from release are available to clients.
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