Long Range Box Office Forecast: The Menu and She Said Will Fight for Runner-Up in Black Panther: Wakanda Forever‘s Second Frame

Photo Credits: Searchlight Pictures ("The Menu"); Universal & Natasha Braier ("She Said")

Pre-Thanksgiving weekend will belong to the second frame of Marvel’s Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, which as reported last week is tracking for a new November record debut, but two alternative options will hope to stand out in the mean time.

The MCU blockbuster is likely poised for a sophomore weekend north of $60 million (if not considerably more, depending on reception and its eventual opening).

PROS:

  • The Menu boasts an ensemble cast led by Ralph Fiennes, Anya Taylor-Joy, and Nicholas Hoult in a dark comedy that hopes to appeal to fans of Knives Out and duplicate some of the same seasonal success.
  • She Said will be courting prestige film audiences and award season followers in hopes of counter-programming the blockbusters and lighter fare of the season.

CONS:

  • As a Searchlight release, The Menu‘s expectations are modest given Disney’s handling of recent releases under that banner and surrounding competition — notably the Knives Out sequel, Glass Onion — over the Thanksgiving frame beginning five days later. Early models position it just slightly ahead of Amsterdam at the same point before release.
  • She Said‘s initial tracking and social metrics are comparable to those of Bombshell at this stage. The drama will need standout marketing or reception to bring in a broad commercial audience.

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 10/20/22)

Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Distributor
10/28/2022 Prey for the Devil $4,000,000 – $9,000,000 -12% $8,700,000 – $20,500,000 -12% Lionsgate
10/28/2022 Tár (Wide Expansion; Limited on October 7)         Focus Features
10/28/2022 Till (Wide Expansion; Limited on October 14)         MGM / UAR / Orion
11/4/2022 Armageddon Time (Wide Exp; Limited on Oct. 28)         Focus Features
11/4/2022 One Piece Film Red $9,000,000 – $15,000,000   $15,750,000 – $30,000,000   Crunchyroll / Sony
11/11/2022 Black Panther: Wakanda Forever $180,000,000 – $225,000,000   $445,000,000 – $590,000,000   Disney / Marvel Studios
11/11/2022 Spirited         Apple Original Films
11/18/2022 The Menu $7,000,000 – $12,000,000   $25,000,000 – $50,000,000   Disney / Searchlight Pictures
11/18/2022 She Said $4,000,000 – $9,000,000   $14,000,000 – $34,000,000   Universal Pictures

All above figures represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation before release. These are not final forecasts.

Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections are available to clients. For more information on forecasts, pricing, and availability, please contact us.

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