Pre-Thanksgiving weekend will belong to the second frame of Marvel’s Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, which as reported last week is tracking for a new November record debut, but two alternative options will hope to stand out in the mean time.
The MCU blockbuster is likely poised for a sophomore weekend north of $60 million (if not considerably more, depending on reception and its eventual opening).
PROS:
- The Menu boasts an ensemble cast led by Ralph Fiennes, Anya Taylor-Joy, and Nicholas Hoult in a dark comedy that hopes to appeal to fans of Knives Out and duplicate some of the same seasonal success.
- She Said will be courting prestige film audiences and award season followers in hopes of counter-programming the blockbusters and lighter fare of the season.
CONS:
- As a Searchlight release, The Menu‘s expectations are modest given Disney’s handling of recent releases under that banner and surrounding competition — notably the Knives Out sequel, Glass Onion — over the Thanksgiving frame beginning five days later. Early models position it just slightly ahead of Amsterdam at the same point before release.
- She Said‘s initial tracking and social metrics are comparable to those of Bombshell at this stage. The drama will need standout marketing or reception to bring in a broad commercial audience.
Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 10/20/22)
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | Distributor |
| 10/28/2022 | Prey for the Devil | $4,000,000 – $9,000,000 | -12% | $8,700,000 – $20,500,000 | -12% | Lionsgate |
| 10/28/2022 | Tár (Wide Expansion; Limited on October 7) | Focus Features | ||||
| 10/28/2022 | Till (Wide Expansion; Limited on October 14) | MGM / UAR / Orion | ||||
| 11/4/2022 | Armageddon Time (Wide Exp; Limited on Oct. 28) | Focus Features | ||||
| 11/4/2022 | One Piece Film Red | $9,000,000 – $15,000,000 | $15,750,000 – $30,000,000 | Crunchyroll / Sony | ||
| 11/11/2022 | Black Panther: Wakanda Forever | $180,000,000 – $225,000,000 | $445,000,000 – $590,000,000 | Disney / Marvel Studios | ||
| 11/11/2022 | Spirited | Apple Original Films | ||||
| 11/18/2022 | The Menu | $7,000,000 – $12,000,000 | $25,000,000 – $50,000,000 | Disney / Searchlight Pictures | ||
| 11/18/2022 | She Said | $4,000,000 – $9,000,000 | $14,000,000 – $34,000,000 | Universal Pictures |
All above figures represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation before release. These are not final forecasts.
Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections are available to clients. For more information on forecasts, pricing, and availability, please contact us.
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