This week’s report takes an early glance at the second frame of June, currently slated for the release of Paramount’s Transformers: Rise of the Beasts.
That weekend was previously set to also see the release of Universal’s Strays, but that comedy has been shifted to an August 18 release.
Current forecast and tracking updates are listed below.
PROS:
- Transformers: Rise of the Beasts has driven fair trailer views online thanks to a strong fan base interested in the big screen adaptation of one of the franchise’s most popular storylines.
- Positive reception from 2018’s Bumblebee, which was a leggy holiday performer that reached $127.2 million domestically and $468 million worldwide, could give this latest franchise entry some incoming goodwill.
- Like prior series installments, global box office should be an asset with a strong international pull. Bumblebee‘s total drew 73 percent from international markets, while 2017’s The Last Knight drew 78 percent.
CONS:
- Concerns linger about the franchise’s diminished returns, particularly in the domestic market. Bumblebee‘s total domestic gross was down 68 percent from the brand’s peak in 2009 when Revenge of the Fallen earned $402 million, and marked the fourth consecutive film in the series to decrease in both gross and admissions.
- Early tracking and pre-sales for Rise of the Beasts are more in line with franchise underperformers like Shazam! Fury of the Gods, Morbius, X-Men: Dark Phoenix, Terminator: Dark Fate, and others.
- Surrounding competition is a major concern. Even with appeal already limited to older fans (which may create a front-loading issue) and young boys, both of those demographics are targeted by June’s Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (June 2) and The Flash (June 16).
Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 5/12/23)
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range | 4-Day (FSSM) Opening Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | Distributor |
| 5/19/2023 | Fast X | $63,000,000 – $73,000,000 | -4% | $141,500,000 – $181,000,000 | -4% | Universal Pictures | |
| 5/26/2023 | About My Father | $4,000,000 – $8,000,000 | $10,000,000 – $29,000,000 | Lionsgate | |||
| 5/26/2023 | Kandahar | $5,000,000 – $10,000,000 | $14,000,000 – $31,000,000 | Open Road Films | |||
| 5/26/2023 | The Little Mermaid (2023) | $80,000,000 – $95,000,000 | $102,000,000 – $122,000,000 | +6% | $255,000,000 – $322,000,000 | +6% | Walt Disney Pictures |
| 5/26/2023 | The Machine | Sony Pictures / Legendary Pictures | |||||
| 5/26/2023 | You Hurt My Feelings | A24 | |||||
| 5/27/2023 | Oggy and the Cockroaches: The Movie | Seven Minds Family Films | |||||
| 6/2/2023 | The Boogeyman | $19,000,000 – $26,000,000 | $61,000,000 – $102,000,000 | Disney / 20th Century Studios | |||
| 6/2/2023 | Past Lives (Platform) | A24 | |||||
| 6/2/2023 | Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse | $85,000,000 – $105,000,000 | $226,000,000 – $325,000,000 | Sony / Columbia Pictures | |||
| 6/9/2023 | Transformers: Rise of the Beasts | $30,000,000 – $40,000,000 | $61,000,000 – $90,000,000 | Paramount Pictures |
Unless otherwise noted, all figures above represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation at the time of this report’s publication date. These are statistical snapshots, not final forecasts.
Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections for theatrical movies up to 12 months from release are available to clients.
For more information about this article or to report any corrections, please contact the author.
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