This week’s report moves ahead to the weekend of December 8—though no major studio is currently planning to put out a wide release on that date.
Below are updates for the bevy of films opening over the course of the next few weeks as the holiday season takes shape.
PROS:
- The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes continues to slightly over-perform with regard to expected tracking and pre-sales, particularly for post-preview showtimes on Friday.
- With pre-sales beginning for Napoleon, preliminary trends are outpacing director Ridley Scott’s 2021 Thanksgiving release House of Gucci; it also enjoys comparable traction to Killers of the Flower Moon.
- Disney’s Wish remains a strong presence across social media channels as the studio begins to significantly ramp up marketing, continuing to push a new song release each week in the run-up to opening weekend. Now that the SAG-AFTRA strike has ended, cast members such as Ariana DeBose and Chris Pine will likely be able to promote the film over the course of the next two weeks.
- Godzilla Minus One is capturing respectable tracking movement ahead of its specialty release in early December, currently trending along the lines of One Piece Film: Red.
CONS:
- Despite the resolution of the actors’ strike, immediate releases whose promotional windows have matured aren’t likely to benefit as much as those later on the calendar as studios will have to balance marketing obligations with production restarts on the schedule.
- The post-Thanksgiving corridor, despite Godzilla and Beyoncé’s Renaissance, continues to look historically weak, meaning early December will need holdovers and limited releases to prop up the market before Wonka arrives on December 15.
Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 11/9/23)
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | 5-Day (WTFSS) Opening Low/High Range | Domestic Total Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | Distributor |
| 11/17/2023 | The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes | $38,000,000 – $50,000,000 | $97,000,000 – $157,000,000 | Lionsgate | |||
| 11/17/2023 | Next Goal Wins | $4,000,000 – $9,000,000 | $12,800,000 – $31,500,000 | Disney / Searchlight Pictures | |||
| 11/17/2023 | Thanksgiving | $8,000,000 – $13,000,000 | -15% | $17,600,000 – $34,700,000 | -15% | Sony / TriStar Pictures | |
| 11/17/2023 | Trolls Band Together | $21,000,000 – $31,000,000 | -4% | $67,000,000 – $113,000,000 | -4% | Universal Pictures | |
| 11/22/2023 | Napoleon | $16,000,000 – $21,000,000 | +3% | $23,000,000 – $32,000,000 | $54,000,000 – $74,000,000 | +3% | Sony Pictures / Apple |
| 11/22/2023 | Saltburn (Expansion; Limited Nov. 17) | Amazon Studios / MGM | |||||
| 11/22/2023 | Wish | $40,000,000 – $60,000,000 | $57,000,000 – $86,800,000 | $165,000,000 – $289,000,000 | Walt Disney Pictures | ||
| 12/1/2023 | Godzilla Minus One | $5,000,000 – $9,000,000 | NEW | $9,000,000 – $18,000,000 | NEW | Toho International | |
| 12/1/2023 | Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé | $27,000,000 – $36,000,000 | $40,000,000 – $80,000,000 | AMC Theatres Distribution | |||
| 12/1/2023 | The Shift | Angel Studios | |||||
| 12/1/2023 | Silent Night | $5,000,000 – $10,000,000 | $13,000,000 – $30,000,000 | Lionsgate | |||
| 12/8/2023 | The Boy and the Heron | GKIDS | |||||
| 12/8/2023 | Eileen (Expansion; Platform Dec. 1) | NEON | |||||
| 12/8/2023 | Poor Things (Limited) | Disney / Searchlight Pictures |
Unless otherwise noted, all figures above represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation at the time of this report’s publication date. These are statistical snapshots, not final forecasts.
Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections for theatrical movies up to 12 months from release are available to clients.
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