Long Range Box Office Forecast: Where the Crawdads Sing and Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank

Photo Credits: Sony ("Where the Crawdads Sing"); Paramount ("Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank")

Joining this week’s report are a pair of counter-programmers hoping to find their audience during the second weekend of Thor: Love and Thunder.

Speaking of the next Marvel Cinematic Universe tentpole, current tracking ranges for it, The Black Phone, Elvis, and Minions: The Rise of Gru are in the chart below as usual.

Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank
Paramount Pictures
July 15, 2022

PROS:

  • An all-star voice cast and early summer trailer rotations give this below-the-radar animated release some initial awareness among parents and kids.
  • Opening two weeks after Minions: The Rise of Gru and two weeks before DC League of Super-Pets gives it some (slight) breathing room.

CONS:

  • Early social trends are muted relative to the other major animated titles opening this summer.
  • Despite two-week buffers ahead and behind, it’s likely that the Minions runway and eventual launch of Super-Pets overshadow this with their strong IP pull.

Where the Crawdads Sing
Sony Pictures
July 15, 2022

PROS:

  • Delia Owen’s hit novel has spent nearly three years’ on the New York Times Best Seller list.
  • The film adaptation has generated strong imprints and social chatter since the release of its initial trailer, with trends often ahead of 2018’s A Simple Favor.
  • Appeal to young and adult women should be notable as a strong counter-programming option in the middle of summer with minimal direct competition.

CONS:

  • Novel-to-film adaptations aren’t always slam-dunks at the box office, so critical reception and audience word of mouth will be key for adjusting the ceiling and floor of potential closer to release.

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 6/16/22)

Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Distributor
6/24/2022 The Black Phone $14,000,000 – $19,000,000 -11% $43,000,000 – $67,000,000 -11% Universal Pictures
6/24/2022 Elvis $31,000,000 – $46,000,000   $94,000,000 – $143,000,000   Warner Bros. Pictures
7/1/2022 Minions: The Rise of Gru $65,000,000 – $77,000,000   $195,000,000 – $260,000,000 -8% Universal Pictures
7/8/2022 Thor: Love and Thunder $155,000,000 – $205,000,000   $350,000,000 – $495,000,000   Disney / Marvel Studios
7/15/2022 Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris         Focus Features
7/15/2022 Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank $9,000,000 – $14,000,000   $28,000,000 – $45,000,000   Paramount Pictures
7/15/2022 Where the Crawdads Sing $17,000,000 – $26,000,000   $48,000,000 – $85,000,000   Sony / 3000 Pictures

All above figures represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation before release. These are not final forecasts.

Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections are available to clients. For more information on forecasts, pricing, and availability, please contact us.

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