This week’s update takes a preliminary look at one of December’s key tentpoles, plus updates to upcoming releases over the Thanksgiving window and beyond.
Warner Bros. Pictures
December 15, 2023
Opening Weekend Range: $25M-$35M
Domestic Total Range: $125M-$210M
- Timothée Chalamet is arguably this prequel’s biggest asset in terms of inspiring appeal among Gen Z audiences, and he’ll be able to promote the film now that the SAG-AFTRA strike has ended.
- In general, the franchise’s familiarity and popularity should resonate with families as the original 1971 Willy Wonka & the Chocolate Factory as well as 2005’s Charlie and the Chocolate Factory have kept the IP alive and well across multiple generations of moviegoers.
- With no competing releases sharing the same weekend, plus an absence of tentpoles in early December and mixed expectations for Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom, Wonka will need only healthy word of mouth to help it build a leggy, back-loaded holiday run.
- Musicals are challenging to sell in the modern market, and older IP has seen its share of modest box office performances in recent times. The crossroads of the two previously fell below bullish industry expectations with 2018’s Mary Poppins Returns, though that film ultimately drew out a strong multiplier and respectable global gross.
- Competition for family audiences could be a factor one week later when Universal and Illumination’s Migration opens ahead of Christmas. Historically, multiple films have co-existed around this corridor, but that remains a more challenging assumption to make during a time when consumers (especially families) are becoming more selective about their theatrical selections.
Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 11/16/23)
|Release Date||Title||3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range||Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week||5-Day (WTFSS) Opening Low/High Range||Domestic Total Low/High Range||Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week||Distributor|
|11/22/2023||Napoleon||$17,000,000 – $22,000,000||+11%||$23,000,000 – $32,000,000||$57,000,000 – $77,500,000||+11%||Sony Pictures / Apple|
|11/22/2023||Saltburn (Expansion; Limited Nov. 17)||Amazon Studios / MGM|
|11/22/2023||Wish||$40,000,000 – $60,000,000||$57,000,000 – $86,800,000||$165,000,000 – $289,000,000||Walt Disney Pictures|
|12/1/2023||Godzilla Minus One||$5,000,000 – $9,000,000||$9,000,000 – $18,000,000||Toho International|
|12/1/2023||Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé||$27,000,000 – $36,000,000||$40,000,000 – $80,000,000||AMC Theatres Distribution|
|12/1/2023||The Shift||$3,000,000 – $7,000,000||NEW||$6,000,000 – $21,000,000||NEW||Angel Studios|
|12/1/2023||Silent Night||$4,000,000 – $9,000,000||$10,000,000 – $27,000,000||Lionsgate|
|12/8/2023||The Boy and the Heron||GKIDS|
|12/8/2023||Eileen (Wide Expansion; Platform Dec. 1)||NEON|
|12/8/2023||Poor Things (Limited)||Disney / Searchlight Pictures|
|12/15/2023||American Fiction (Limited)||MGM / MRC|
|12/15/2023||Concrete Utopia (Wide Expansion; NY+LA on Dec. 8)||Lotte Entertainment|
|12/15/2023||Wonka||$25,000,000 – $35,000,000||$125,000,000 – $210,000,000||Warner Bros. Pictures|
Unless otherwise noted, all figures above represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation at the time of this report’s publication date. These are statistical snapshots, not final forecasts.
Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections for theatrical movies up to 12 months from release are available to clients.