Long Range Box Office Tracking: Antebellum

Photo Credit: Matt Kennedy

This week’s update takes an early look at the original horror film, Antebellum, currently slated to open Friday, April 24.

UAR’s Bad Trip is also scheduled to open in wide release that day, however, we’re holding off on projections until its marketing campaign attains a wider footprint.

Antebellum
Opening Weekend Range: $9 – 14 million

PROS:

  • Janelle Monáe takes on her first leading role following her well-received turns in Hidden Figures and Harriet. The multi-talented star also recently headlined as the Oscars opening musical act.

  • Early marketing has emphasized the film’s producing connection to Get Out and Us, which could further attract audiences looking for another unique, cerebral horror film.

CONS:

  • Social media activity has been relatively silent in recent months, though that’s not necessarily a tell-tale sign given the penchant of original horror films to not catch fire until much closer to release.

  • Opening the weekend before a Marvel film in late April has typically proven to be disadvantageous for various releases as audiences of varying backgrounds often sit that weekend out in preparation for the upcoming blockbuster (May 1’s Black Widow, in this case).

Upcoming Location Count Projections

  • Onward (4,000 studio estimate on March 6)
  • The Way Back (2,600+ studio estimate on March 6)
  • Bloodshot (2,900 on March 13)
  • Emma (1,500 studio estimated expansion on March 13)
  • The Hunt (2,600 on March 13)
  • I Still Believe (2,000 on March 13)
  • My Spy (2,500 on March 13)

8-Week Tracking and Forecasts

Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Tracking Range 3-Day (FSS) Opening Forecast % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Range Domestic Total Forecast % Chg from Last Week Distributor
3/6/2020 Onward $45,000,000 – $65,000,000 $55,000,000 -8% $170,000,000 – $250,000,000 $210,000,000 -7% Disney / Pixar
3/6/2020 The Way Back $7,000,000 – $12,000,000 $8,000,000 -11% $20,000,000 – $40,000,000 $25,000,000 -11% Warner Bros.
3/13/2020 Bloodshot $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 $11,000,000 -8% $25,000,000 – $38,000,000 $26,500,000 -12% Sony / Columbia
3/13/2020 The Hunt $8,000,000 – $13,000,000 $9,500,000 -10% $20,000,000 – $33,000,000 $23,000,000 -8% Universal
3/13/2020 I Still Believe $13,000,000 – $18,000,000 $13,000,000   $44,000,000 – $59,000,000 $43,000,000   Lionsgate
3/13/2020 My Spy $6,000,000 – $11,000,000 $7,500,000   $15,000,000 – $35,000,000 $25,000,000   STX
3/20/2020 A Quiet Place Part II $60,000,000 – $80,000,000 $72,000,000   $140,000,000 – $190,000,000 $168,000,000   Paramount
3/27/2020 Mulan $40,000,000 – $60,000,000 $48,000,000   $115,000,000 – $170,000,000 $138,000,000   Disney
4/3/2020 The Lovebirds $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 $12,000,000   $35,000,000 – $50,000,000 $42,000,000   Paramount
4/3/2020 The New Mutants $15,000,000 – $25,000,000 $17,000,000   $35,000,000 – $55,000,000 $37,000,000   20th Century Studios
4/3/2020 Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway $14,000,000 – $19,000,000 $18,500,000   $65,000,000 – $85,000,000 $71,000,000   Sony / Columbia
4/10/2020 No Time to Die $75,000,000 – $100,000,000 $88,000,000   $200,000,000 – $290,000,000 $269,000,000   MGM
4/17/2020 Antlers   n/a     n/a   Searchlight Pictures
4/17/2020 Blue Story   n/a     n/a   Paramount
4/17/2020 Trolls: World Tour $17,000,000 – $27,000,000 $23,500,000   $60,000,000 – $90,000,000 $81,000,000   Universal
4/24/2020 Antebellum $9,000,000 – $14,000,000 $12,000,000 NEW $20,000,000 – $40,000,000 $34,000,000 NEW Lionsgate
4/24/2020 Bad Trip   n/a NEW   n/a NEW United Artists Releasing

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