Long Range Box Office Tracking: Trolls: World Tour

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This week’s preliminary report takes a look at early projections for DreamWorks Animation’s follow-up to the 2016 hit, Trolls. Its sequel is set for release on Friday, April 17.

Also opening that weekend are Searchlight Pictures’ Antlers and Paramount’s Blue Story. We’ll offer up analysis on those titles if/when wide releases are detailed.

Trolls: World Tour
Opening Weekend Range: $17 – 27 million

PROS:

  • Anna Kendrick and Justin Timberlake return as part of an all-star voice cast that should help attract kids and parents again, especially those of the latter who grew up with the popular toys.

  • The first film captured the prior generation’s nostalgia three-and-a-half years ago when Trolls bowed to a strong $46.6 million domestic opening November 2016 — onward to $153.7 million stateside and $347 million globally.

  • Opening two weeks after Peter Rabbit 2 and one month before SCOOB!, there’s a fair runway for playability. Appeal to mothers and daughters is also notable.

CONS:

  • Advance models indicate this sequel isn’t driving quite the same level of social media engagement as its predecessor.

  • A trend of animated sequels falling sharply from their predecessors has become quite apparent in recent years, with relevant comparisons for this particular IP being franchise follow-ups like The Angry Birds Movie 2, The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part, and Smurfs: The Lost Village.

Estimated Location Counts

  • The Invisible Man (3,500 studio estimate on February 28)
  • Onward (3,900)
  • The Way Back (2,700)

8-Week Tracking and Forecasts

Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Tracking Range 3-Day (FSS) Opening Forecast % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Range Domestic Total Forecast % Chg from Last Week Distributor
2/28/2020 The Invisible Man $20,000,000 – $40,000,000 $30,000,000   $60,000,000 – $105,000,000 $80,000,000   Universal
3/6/2020 Onward $50,000,000 – $70,000,000 $60,000,000   $175,000,000 – $250,000,000 $227,000,000   Disney / Pixar
3/6/2020 The Way Back $8,000,000 – $13,000,000 $9,000,000 -10% $25,000,000 – $45,000,000 $28,000,000 -16% Warner Bros.
3/13/2020 Bloodshot $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 $12,000,000   $25,000,000 – $38,000,000 $30,000,000   Sony / Columbia
3/13/2020 The Hunt $8,000,000 – $13,000,000 $10,500,000   $20,000,000 – $33,000,000 $25,000,000   Universal
3/13/2020 I Still Believe $13,000,000 – $18,000,000 $13,000,000 -10% $44,000,000 – $59,000,000 $43,000,000 -12% Lionsgate
3/13/2020 My Spy $6,000,000 – $11,000,000 $7,500,000 -17% $15,000,000 – $35,000,000 $25,000,000 -23% STX
3/20/2020 A Quiet Place Part II $60,000,000 – $80,000,000 $72,000,000   $140,000,000 – $190,000,000 $168,000,000   Paramount
3/27/2020 Mulan $40,000,000 – $60,000,000 $48,000,000 4% $115,000,000 – $170,000,000 $138,000,000 4% Disney
4/3/2020 The Lovebirds $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 $12,000,000   $35,000,000 – $50,000,000 $42,000,000   Paramount
4/3/2020 The New Mutants $15,000,000 – $25,000,000 $17,000,000   $35,000,000 – $55,000,000 $37,000,000   20th Century Studios
4/3/2020 Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway $14,000,000 – $19,000,000 $18,500,000   $65,000,000 – $85,000,000 $71,000,000   Sony / Columbia
4/10/2020 No Time to Die $75,000,000 – $100,000,000 $88,000,000   $200,000,000 – $290,000,000 $269,000,000   MGM
4/17/2020 Antlers   n/a     n/a   Searchlight Pictures
4/17/2020 Blue Story   n/a     n/a   Paramount
4/17/2020 Trolls: World Tour $17,000,000 – $27,000,000 $23,500,000 NEW $60,000,000 – $90,000,000 $81,000,000 NEW Universal

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