This week’s preliminary report takes a look at early projections for DreamWorks Animation’s follow-up to the 2016 hit, Trolls. Its sequel is set for release on Friday, April 17.
Also opening that weekend are Searchlight Pictures’ Antlers and Paramount’s Blue Story. We’ll offer up analysis on those titles if/when wide releases are detailed.
Trolls: World Tour
Opening Weekend Range: $17 – 27 million
PROS:
- Anna Kendrick and Justin Timberlake return as part of an all-star voice cast that should help attract kids and parents again, especially those of the latter who grew up with the popular toys.
- The first film captured the prior generation’s nostalgia three-and-a-half years ago when Trolls bowed to a strong $46.6 million domestic opening November 2016 — onward to $153.7 million stateside and $347 million globally.
- Opening two weeks after Peter Rabbit 2 and one month before SCOOB!, there’s a fair runway for playability. Appeal to mothers and daughters is also notable.
CONS:
- Advance models indicate this sequel isn’t driving quite the same level of social media engagement as its predecessor.
- A trend of animated sequels falling sharply from their predecessors has become quite apparent in recent years, with relevant comparisons for this particular IP being franchise follow-ups like The Angry Birds Movie 2, The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part, and Smurfs: The Lost Village.
Estimated Location Counts
- The Invisible Man (3,500 studio estimate on February 28)
- Onward (3,900)
- The Way Back (2,700)
8-Week Tracking and Forecasts
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Tracking Range | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Forecast | % Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total Range | Domestic Total Forecast | % Chg from Last Week | Distributor |
| 2/28/2020 | The Invisible Man | $20,000,000 – $40,000,000 | $30,000,000 | $60,000,000 – $105,000,000 | $80,000,000 | Universal | ||
| 3/6/2020 | Onward | $50,000,000 – $70,000,000 | $60,000,000 | $175,000,000 – $250,000,000 | $227,000,000 | Disney / Pixar | ||
| 3/6/2020 | The Way Back | $8,000,000 – $13,000,000 | $9,000,000 | -10% | $25,000,000 – $45,000,000 | $28,000,000 | -16% | Warner Bros. |
| 3/13/2020 | Bloodshot | $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 | $12,000,000 | $25,000,000 – $38,000,000 | $30,000,000 | Sony / Columbia | ||
| 3/13/2020 | The Hunt | $8,000,000 – $13,000,000 | $10,500,000 | $20,000,000 – $33,000,000 | $25,000,000 | Universal | ||
| 3/13/2020 | I Still Believe | $13,000,000 – $18,000,000 | $13,000,000 | -10% | $44,000,000 – $59,000,000 | $43,000,000 | -12% | Lionsgate |
| 3/13/2020 | My Spy | $6,000,000 – $11,000,000 | $7,500,000 | -17% | $15,000,000 – $35,000,000 | $25,000,000 | -23% | STX |
| 3/20/2020 | A Quiet Place Part II | $60,000,000 – $80,000,000 | $72,000,000 | $140,000,000 – $190,000,000 | $168,000,000 | Paramount | ||
| 3/27/2020 | Mulan | $40,000,000 – $60,000,000 | $48,000,000 | 4% | $115,000,000 – $170,000,000 | $138,000,000 | 4% | Disney |
| 4/3/2020 | The Lovebirds | $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 | $12,000,000 | $35,000,000 – $50,000,000 | $42,000,000 | Paramount | ||
| 4/3/2020 | The New Mutants | $15,000,000 – $25,000,000 | $17,000,000 | $35,000,000 – $55,000,000 | $37,000,000 | 20th Century Studios | ||
| 4/3/2020 | Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway | $14,000,000 – $19,000,000 | $18,500,000 | $65,000,000 – $85,000,000 | $71,000,000 | Sony / Columbia | ||
| 4/10/2020 | No Time to Die | $75,000,000 – $100,000,000 | $88,000,000 | $200,000,000 – $290,000,000 | $269,000,000 | MGM | ||
| 4/17/2020 | Antlers | n/a | n/a | Searchlight Pictures | ||||
| 4/17/2020 | Blue Story | n/a | n/a | Paramount | ||||
| 4/17/2020 | Trolls: World Tour | $17,000,000 – $27,000,000 | $23,500,000 | NEW | $60,000,000 – $90,000,000 | $81,000,000 | NEW | Universal |
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