Long Range Forecast — October 17, 2025
Black Phone 2 | Universal
Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $20M – $28M
Tracking for this Blumhouse horror sequel is currently on par with its 2022 predecessor, which emerged as a surprise genre hit at the box office, opening to $23.6M en route to a $90.1M domestic haul. Historically, October has been a profitable release month for Blumhouse; six of their top ten domestic grossers, including 2023’s Five Nights at Freddys ($80M domestic opening), 2022’s Halloween Ends ($40M), and 2021’s Halloween Kills ($49.4M), came out during that month, as did a pair of titles—2023’s The Exorcist: Believer ($26.4M) and 2017’s Happy Death Day ($26M)—that opened within the range expected of Black Phone 2. Among non-Blumhouse titles, 2024’s Smile 2 ($23) and 2019’s Zombieland: Double Tap ($26.8M) are both horror sequels released in mid-October that opened within $2.5M of their respective predecessors.
Good Fortune | Lionsgate
Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $12M – $18M
Aziz Anzari directs, writes, and co-stars in this comedy, featuring Keanu Reeves as a bumbling guardian angel who attempts to improve the lives of a gig worker (Ansari) and a wealthy venture capitalist (Seth Rogen). While Reeves’ presence creates compelling commercial appeal for the title, it’s worth noting that he hasn’t appeared in a non-franchise, theatrically released film since 2018’s Replicas ($2.3M domestic opening), leaving his box office draw outside of known properties in question. The box office has also not been kind to R-rated comedies of late, with this summer’s The Naked Gun and 2023’s Dumb Money (also an autumn release co-starring Rogen) coming in under box office expectations; the former opened to $16.8M, while the latter didn’t go wide until its third week, earning $3.3M en route to an eventual $13.9M domestic cume.
Truth & Treason | Angel Studios
Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $2M – $4M
Angel Studios returns to the historical drama genre with Truth & Treason, a World War II resistance story about a teenage boy executed for resisting the Nazis. Another German historical figure who resisted Nazi rule, the pastor Dietrich Bonhoeffer, was at the center of Angel Studios’ Bonhoeffer ($5M domestic opening), released in November of last year; another of the studios’ historical dramas, Cabrini, gave Angel its fourth-highest opening weekend ($7.1M) in March 2024. Truth & Treason is only the second Angel release to open in theaters in October, following the 2023 documentary After Death, which opened to $5M.
Among non-Angel Studios, Europe-set WWII films, our forecasting panel has Truth & Treason opening higher than Lionsgate’s White Bird, which opened to $1.5M in early October 2024 after several scheduling delays.
Tracking Updates [as of September 12]
| Release Date | Title | Predicted Opening Range | Distributor |
| 9/12 | The Long Walk | $10M – $15M | Lionsgate |
| 9/12 | Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale | $20M – $25M | Focus Features / Universal |
| 9/12 | Demon Slayer -Kimetsu no Yaiba- The Movie: Infinity Castle | $60M – $75M | Crunchyroll / Sony |
| 9/12 | Spinal Tap II: The End Continues | $4M – $6M | Bleecker Street |
| 9/19 | A Big Bold Beautiful Journey | $8M – $12M | Sony |
| 9/19 | HIM | $17M – $23M | Universal |
| 9/19 | The Senior | $2M – $4M | Angel Studios |
| 9/26 | The Strangers: Chapter 2 | $8M – $12M | Lionsgate |
| 9/26 | One Battle After Another | $15M – $20M | Warner Bros. |
| 9/26 | Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie | $15M – $20M | Universal |
| 10/3 | The Smashing Machine | $6M – $10M | A24 |
| 10/10 | Roofman | $10M – $15M | Paramount |
| 10/10 | Soul on Fire | $4M – $8M | Sony / Affirm |
| 10/10 | Tron: Ares | $35M – $45M | Disney |
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