Long Range Forecast: ‘Captain America: Civil War’

Daniel Garris, Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.

Disney and Marvel will kick off this year’s summer box office season with the release of Captain America: Civil War on May 6. The latest installment of the Marvel Cinematic Universe is expected to be one of the higher grossing releases of 2016, thanks in part to the inclusion of Iron Man and a number of other Avengers in the film.

Captain America: Civil War (Disney)


– 2014’s Captain America: The Winter Soldier had a strong box office performance with a $95.0 million debut and a final domestic gross of $259.8 million and was very well received by moviegoers as well.

– With the inclusion of Iron Man in the film, it is highly likely that Captain America: Civil War will perform more in line with an Avengers or Iron Man sequel as opposed to a Captain America sequel.

– In addition to Captain America and Iron Man, the film is full of a number of Avengers, including Black Widow, Hawkeye, Falcon, War Machine, Vision, Scarlet Witch, Black Panther, Ant-Man and the much talked about appearance of Spider-Man.

– With a more interesting story line than Avengers: Age of Ultron (and potentially being a better received film by moviegoers as well), there is a good chance Captain America: Civil War will hold up a bit better than Avengers: Age of Ultron did after opening weekend.

– Early online activity for Captain America: Civil War on Twitter has been stronger than the early Twitter activity of Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice in the same point in its cycle earlier this year, though early Twitter activity for Civil War hasn’t been as strong as it was for Avengers: Age of Ultron.


– While The Winter Soldier was received very well by moviegoers, reaction to both Age of Ultron and Iron Man 3 was less enthusiastic in comparison.

– Arriving in the marketplace so soon after both Deadpool and Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice could limit potential slightly for Captain America: Civil War. X-Men: Apocalypse will also be entering the marketplace just three weeks after Civil War.

– Even with the film’s Avengers-heavy cast, technically being a Captain America film as opposed to an Avengers film could still limit potential slightly as well.

Check out our complete long range forecast in the table below.

Title Release Date Distributor Opening Weekend Cumulative
Captain America: Civil War May 6, 2016 Disney $163,000,000 $425,000,000
Keanu Apr 29, 2016 Warner Bros. / New Line $19,000,000 $48,000,000
Mother’s Day (2016) Apr 29, 2016 Open Road $13,000,000 $45,000,000
Ratchet & Clank Apr 29, 2016 Focus / Gramercy $7,500,000 $19,000,000
Same Kind of Different as Me Apr 29, 2016 Paramount $5,000,000 $13,000,000
The Huntsman: Winter’s War Apr 22, 2016 Universal $31,000,000 $77,000,000
The Jungle Book (2016) Apr 15, 2016 Disney $60,000,000 $185,000,000
Barbershop: The Next Cut Apr 15, 2016 Warner Bros. / New Line $18,000,000 $45,000,000
Criminal (2016) Apr 15, 2016 Lionsgate / Summit $11,000,000 $33,000,000
The Boss Apr 8, 2016 Universal $20,000,000 $70,000,000
Hardcore Henry Apr 8, 2016 STX Entertainment $8,500,000 $24,000,000
God’s Not Dead 2 Apr 1, 2016 Pure Flix $14,000,000 $43,000,000
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice Mar 25, 2016 Warner Bros. $159,000,000 $390,000,000
My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 Mar 25, 2016 Universal $16,500,000 $60,000,000
The Divergent Series: Allegiant Mar 18, 2016 Lionsgate / Summit $37,000,000 $92,000,000
Miracles from Heaven Mar 16, 2016 Sony / TriStar $19,000,000 $77,000,000

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