The weekend of June 10 will see three new wide releases battling it out, as Warner’s The Conjuring 2, Universal’s Warcraft and Lionsgate’s Now You See Me 2 all enter the marketplace. BoxOffice Pro expects The Conjuring 2 to be the strongest performer of the three; while weaker results are expected for both Warcraft and Now You See Me 2. In general, the potential of all three films is likely to be somewhat muted by all three opening the same weekend.
In addition to this week’s additions to the long range forecast, we have significantly revised our forecast upwards for Disney’s Captain America: Civil War. With very strong initial critical reviews and the film continuing to impress in a big way on Twitter and online in general, BoxOffice Pro feels increasingly confident that Civil War will perform like an Avengers sequel and display stronger holding power than Avengers: Age of Ultron did last summer.
The Conjuring 2 (Warner Bros. / New Line)
– 2013’s The Conjuring was a surprise hit with a $41.9 million debut and final domestic gross of $137.4 million. The film held up especially well at the box office for a horror film.
– Stars Vera Farmiga and Patrick Wilson and director James Wan are all returning for The Conjuring 2.
– The strong performances of both 2013’s Insidious Chapter 2 and 2014’s Annabelle after the release of The Conjuring, are a good sign for The Conjuring 2, especially when it comes to opening weekend.
– We haven’t really seen a horror film truly break out since Annabelle did so. This should help further strengthen demand for The Conjuring 2 with horror fans.
– While recent Twitter activity for The Conjuring 2 has been solid, it hasn’t been exceptional either.
– There is the possibility for at least some sequel fatigue with the film, especially since there was a catching lightning in a bottle aspect to the first film’s performance.
– The Conjuring 2 will be opening in a very crowded marketplace. In addition to competition from Warcraft and Now You See Me 2, holdovers Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows, X-Men: Apocalypse and Alice Through the Looking Glass are likely to still have a presence at the box office that weekend.
– The Warcraft video game series the film is based on provides a potential built-in audience for the film, especially on opening weekend.
– Director Duncan Jones has built up a fanbase with 2009’s Moon and 2011’s Source Code. Jones’ involvement with Warcraft should help build further anticipation for the film.
– In comparison to The Conjuring 2 and Now You See Me 2, Warcraft will have the added advantage of higher priced 3D and IMAX admissions.
– Warcraft has been performing modestly on Twitter as of late and its recent tweet levels are running significantly below those of both The Conjuring 2 and Now You See Me 2.
– Warcraft could be arriving a few years too late. In addition to the film being in development for a very long time, the Warcraft video game series isn’t as popular as it once was.
– The competition the film will face from The Conjuring 2, Now You See Me 2 and the weekend’s major holdovers.
Now You See Me 2 (Lionsgate / Summit)
– Much like The Conjuring, Now You See Me was a surprise hit back in the summer of 2013. The film opened with $29.4 million and went on to gross $117.7 million thanks to terrific holding power.
– In addition to most of the original film’s cast returning, Daniel Radcliffe and Lizzy Caplan have joined the cast of Now You See Me 2.
– Recent Twitter activity levels for Now You See Me 2 have been stronger than those of Warcraft.
– While Now You See Me pulled off a surprise victory over After Earth back in 2013, it will be tougher for Now You See Me 2 to do the same given that it will be opening against two high-profile films this time around.
– As could be the case with The Conjuring 2, sequel fatigue could come into play for Now You See Me 2, perhaps more so in its case.
– Lionsgate has had a lackluster start to 2016. Coming on the heels of Gods of Egypt and The Divergent Series: Allegiant; Now You See Me 2 could represent another underperformer for the distributor.
Check out our complete long range forecast in the table below.
|Title||Release Date||Distributor||Opening Weekend||Cumulative|
|The Conjuring 2||Jun 10, 2016||Warner Bros. / New Line||$45,000,000||$105,000,000|
|Warcraft||Jun 10, 2016||Universal||$35,000,000||$78,000,000|
|Now You See Me 2||Jun 10, 2016||Lionsgate / Summit||$23,000,000||$65,000,000|
|Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows||Jun 3, 2016||Paramount||$55,000,000||$150,000,000|
|Me Before You||Jun 3, 2016||Warner Bros. / New Line||$15,000,000||$45,000,000|
|Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping||Jun 3, 2016||Universal||$11,000,000||$28,000,000|
|The Bye Bye Man||Jun 3, 2016||STX Entertainment||$7,000,000||$17,000,000|
|X-Men: Apocalypse||May 27, 2016||Fox||$120,000,000*||$250,000,000|
|Alice Through the Looking Glass||May 27, 2016||Disney||$70,000,000*||$170,000,000|
|Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising||May 20, 2016||Universal||$48,000,000||$125,000,000|
|The Angry Birds Movie||May 20, 2016||Sony / Columbia||$43,000,000||$140,000,000|
|The Nice Guys||May 20, 2016||Warner Bros.||$15,000,000||$55,000,000|
|Money Monster||May 13, 2016||Sony / TriStar||$11,000,000||$32,000,000|
|The Darkness||May 13, 2016||High Top / BH Tilt||$6,000,000||$13,000,000|
|Captain America: Civil War||May 6, 2016||Disney||$182,000,000||$490,000,000|
|Keanu||Apr 29, 2016||Warner Bros. / New Line||$20,000,000||$50,000,000|
|Mother’s Day (2016)||Apr 29, 2016||Open Road||$13,000,000||$45,000,000|
|Ratchet & Clank||Apr 29, 2016||Focus / Gramercy||$7,500,000||$19,000,000|
|The Huntsman: Winter’s War||Apr 22, 2016||Universal||$28,000,000||$68,000,000|
* indicates a prediction for a four-day holiday weekend.
Daniel Garris, Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.
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