Long Range Forecast: ‘Independence Day: Resurgence’ & ‘Free State of Jones’

Like the weekend of June 17 before it with Finding Dory, the weekend of June 24 will also see the release of a long-awaited sequel with the launch of Fox’s Independence Day: Resurgence.  The original Independence Day was the highest grossing release of 1996.  Independence Day: Resurgence will hope to tap into the nostalgia of its predecessor, but BoxOffice Pro is cautious about the film’s prospects.  Also opening on June 24 is STX Entertainment’s Free State of Jones, which stars Matthew McConaughey.

Independence Day: Resurgence (Fox)


– 1996’s Independence Day was one of the biggest films of the 1990s.  The film grossed $306.2 million domestically, which adjusts to $594.3 million when taking into account 20 years of ticket price inflation.

– Somewhat surprisingly, Independence Day: Resurgence was recently voted as the second most anticipated action film of the summer in Fandango’s annual Most Anticipated Summer Movies Survey (ahead of both X-Men: Apocalypse and Suicide Squad).

– Jeff Goldblum and Bill Pullman are returning for the sequel, though Will Smith not being involved is sure to significantly limit the film’s potential.

Independence Day: Resurgence could receive boosts from 1990s nostalgia and from opening the weekend before Independence Day weekend.


– Twitter activity for Independence Day: Resurgence has been underwhelming thus far and suggests that the film is unlikely to experience a break-out performance.

– While Will Smith isn’t the box office draw he used to be, the mentioned lack of Smith is sure the limit the prospects of Independence Day: Resurgence.

Independence Day: Resurgence will face direct competition from Warner’s Central Intelligence in late June and from Disney’s The BFG, Warner’s The Legend of Tarzan and Universal’s The Purge: Election Year in early July.

Free State of Jones (STX Entertainment)


– Matthew McConaughey gives Free State of Jones some star power, while the involvement of director/writer Gary Ross should help increase interest in the film as well.

Free State of Jones could benefit from serving as an alternative choice to the summer’s sequels and action fare.

– Footage of the film went over well recently at CinemaCon.  If critical reviews end up being strong, that would help out the film’s potential, especially beyond opening weekend.


Free State of Jones has performed very softly on Twitter thus far, especially for a film with a very specific title.

– While STX Entertainment has had two very solid performers thus far in last year’s The Gift and this year’s The Boy, the young distributor has yet to have a break-out opening weekend performance.

–  Free State of Jones is the type of film that might be better suited for a release in the fall.

Check out our complete long range forecast in the table below.

Title Release Date Distributor Opening Weekend Cumulative
Independence Day: Resurgence Jun 24, 2016 Fox $68,000,000 $175,000,000
Free State of Jones Jun 24, 2016 STX Entertainment $11,500,000 $43,000,000
Finding Dory Jun 17, 2016 Disney $108,000,000 $390,000,000
Central Intelligence Jun 17, 2016 Warner Bros. / New Line $52,000,000 $155,000,000
The Conjuring 2 Jun 10, 2016 Warner Bros. / New Line $45,000,000 $105,000,000
Warcraft Jun 10, 2016 Universal $35,000,000 $78,000,000
Now You See Me 2 Jun 10, 2016 Lionsgate / Summit $23,000,000 $65,000,000
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows Jun 3, 2016 Paramount $53,000,000 $145,000,000
Me Before You Jun 3, 2016 Warner Bros. / New Line $15,000,000 $45,000,000
Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping Jun 3, 2016 Universal $10,000,000 $25,000,000
X-Men: Apocalypse May 27, 2016 Fox $115,000,000* $240,000,000
Alice Through the Looking Glass May 27, 2016 Disney $70,000,000* $170,000,000
The Angry Birds Movie May 20, 2016 Sony / Columbia $43,000,000 $140,000,000
Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising May 20, 2016 Universal $41,000,000 $110,000,000
The Nice Guys May 20, 2016 Warner Bros. $16,000,000 $60,000,000
Money Monster May 13, 2016 Sony / TriStar $11,000,000 $32,000,000
The Darkness May 13, 2016 High Top / BH Tilt $6,000,000 $13,000,000
Captain America: Civil War May 6, 2016 Disney $213,000,000 $605,000,000

* indicates a prediction for a four-day holiday weekend.

Daniel Garris, Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.

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