Long Range Forecast: “The Light Between Oceans,” “Morgan,” “Solace”

September 2 will begin the fall movie season with three wide releases: Buena Vista / Touchstone Pictures with their period drama The Light Between Oceans, Fox with the science fiction thriller Morgan, and Relativity Media with the science fiction mystery Solace.

The Light Between Oceans (Buena Vista / Disney)


– Early Oscar buzz is strong, including potential Best Actress and Best Actor nods for Alicia Vikander and Michael Fassbender. Vikander won Best Supporting Actress last year for The Danish Girl and Fassbender received a Best Actor nomination for Steve Jobs.

– The star power is also strong from a box office perspective. Vikander’s previous role will have been August’s Jason Bourne, which is currently projected to be one of the summer’s biggest hits. Fassbender’s previous role will have been this summer’s X-Men: Apocalypse, which although perhaps underwhelming relative to previous installments in the X-Men franchise still earned more than $150 million.

– The novel by M.L. Stedman, from which the film is adapted, made the New York Times bestsellers list and has spent 69 weeks so far on the USA Today bestsellers list.


– The subject matter will likely strike audiences as depressing: a couple who adopts a lost baby girl following the wife’s miscarriage and a stillborn, only to inadvertently ruin the lives of the adopted child’s birth parents as a result.

Morgan (Fox)


– The blending of genres — part science fiction, part thriller, part horror — could appeal to several different audiences and demographics.

– Prior to filming, the screenplay had made the 2014 Black List of the best unproduced screenplays. If word of mouth remains good, the film could have a solid hold.


– Lead star Kate Mara has never proven herself as a box office draw, with some of her most recent films such as last year’s Fantastic Four and 2014’s Transcendence tanking. Transcendence may be a particularly apt comparison, with a plot that also revolved around whether to kill an artificial intelligence created in a laboratory.

– The first teaser trailer was only released last month and the first trailer only last week. With only two or three months to really build up buzz, the window might be too short to generate a lot of excitement.

Solace (Relativity Media)


– Anthony Hopkins and Colin Farrell both provide recognizable star power, with Hopkins earning awards and rave reviews in similar serial-killer themed films such as The Silence of the Lambs and Hannibal. (Although in this film his character is trying to find the serial killer rather than committing the crimes himself.)


– This is the first film released by Relativity Studios since they emerged from Chapter 11 bankruptcy a few months ago.

– The film was shot three years ago was completed more than a year and a half ago, screening at the Toronto International Film Festival in fall of 2015. The fact that it took so long to commit to a domestic release is a potentially worrying sign.

Check out our complete long range forecast in the table below.

Title Release Date Distributor Opening Weekend Cumulative
The Light Between Oceans Sep 2, 2016 Disney / Buena Vista $7,000,000 $30,000,000
Morgan Sep 2, 2016 Fox $7,500,000 $21,000,000
Solace Sep 2, 2016 Relativity Media $4,000,000 $10,000,000
Don’t Breathe Aug 26, 2016 Screen Gems $9,000,000 $22,000,000
Hands Of Stone Aug 26, 2016 Weinstein Company $5,000,000 $14,000,000
Mechanic: Resurrection Aug 26, 2016 Lionsgate/Summit $8,000,000 $20,000,000
Ben-Hur Aug 19, 2016 Paramount $19,000,000 $55,000,000
Kubo and the Two Strings Aug 19, 2016 Focus $13,500,000 $52,000,000
War Dogs Aug 19, 2016 Warner Bros. $19,000,000 $58,000,000
Pete’s Dragon Aug 12, 2016 Disney / Buena Vista $33,000,000 $117,000,000
Sausage Party Aug 12, 2016 Sony / Columbia $25,000,000 $60,000,000
Florence Foster Jenkins Aug 12, 2016 Paramount $10,000,000 $45,000,000
Suicide Squad Aug 5, 2016 Warner Bros. $98,000,000 $275,000,000
The Founder Aug 5, 2016 Weinstein Company $8,500,000 $32,000,000
Nine Lives Aug 5, 2016 EuropaCorp $9,000,000 $33,000,000
Jason Bourne Jul 29, 2016 Universal $65,000,000 $195,000,000
Bad Moms Jul 29, 2016 STX Entertainment $21,000,000 $70,000,000
Nerve Jul 27, 2016 Lionsgate $7,500,000 $20,000,000
Star Trek Beyond Jul 22, 2016 Paramount $56,000,000 $159,000,000
Ice Age: Collision Course Jul 22, 2016 Fox $39,000,000 $133,000,000
Lights Out Jul 22, 2016 Warner Bros. $11,000,000 $26,000,000
Ghostbusters Jul 15, 2016 Sony / Columbia $53,000,000 $142,000,000
The Infiltrator Jul 13, 2016 Broad Green Pictures $6,000,000 $20,000,000

* indicates a prediction for a four-day holiday weekend.

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