Long Range Forecast: ‘Pacific Rim: Uprising,’ ‘Sherlock Gnomes,’ & ‘Midnight Sun’

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This week’s report takes a look at three wide releases currently scheduled for March 23:

PROS:

  • Pacific Rim: Uprising boasts John Boyega taking over the lead role and fresh off his newfound fame from the Star Wars franchise. Although fan favorite and recent Oscar nominee Guillermo del Toro isn’t returning to direct, Steven S. DeKnight takes the reigns following his successful work on Marvel’s Daredevil Netflix series. Early social buzz is generally positive among die hard fans of the 2013 original film.
  • Sherlock Gnomes enters a spring market largely devoid of obvious animated box office hits for families and young kids. Initial trailers are encouraging, and staying power should be expected until direct competition arrives in early summer.
  • Midnight Sun will hope to court teen date night crowds with Bella Thorne and Patrick Schwarzenegger in the lead roles.

CONS:

  • The original Pacific Rim was a modest box office player in North America, and the nearly five-year wait may prove too long for Uprising to fully capitalize on the heat from that film’s fan support. Opening in between Tomb Raider and Ready Player One will likewise cut into its target audience, but this is ultimately a sequel made more for overseas audiences, where the original film was a sizable hit — particularly in China.
  • Coming seven years after the surprise hit that was Gnomeo & Juliet, it may similarly be too late for Sherlock Gnomes to benefit from its predecessor’s success in the fullest possible way.
  • Open Road’s limited box office history has us conservative with Midnight Sun, with expectations similar to that of last year’s Before I Fall.

This Week’s Other Notes

  • As noted in our report on Thursday, traditional tracking has chimed in for the first time on Black PantherWith early surveys showing interest metrics ahead of Deadpool and other similar titles, combined with strong social media numbers and presales reports, our forecasts continue to increase for the anticipated Disney/Marvel release.
  • Unsane, also slated to open March 23, is excluded from the forecast until marketing begins and a true wide release is confirmed.

The 8-Week Forecast:

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
2/2/2018 Winchester $11,500,000 $31,000,000 2,300 Lionsgate / CBS Films
2/9/2018 The 15:17 to Paris $15,000,000 $47,000,000 3,000 Warner Bros.
2/9/2018 Fifty Shades Freed $40,000,000 $100,000,000 3,700 Universal
2/9/2018 Peter Rabbit $19,000,000 $78,000,000 3,500 Sony / Columbia
2/16/2018 Black Panther $133,000,000 11% $371,000,000 11% Disney
2/16/2018 Early Man $5,000,000 25% $25,000,000 25% Lionsgate / Summit
2/16/2018 Samson $3,500,000 $13,000,000 Pure Flix
2/23/2018 Annihilation $15,000,000 $50,000,000 Paramount
2/23/2018 Every Day n/a n/a Orion
2/23/2018 Game Night $17,000,000 $55,000,000 Warner Bros.
3/2/2018 Death Wish $13,500,000 $34,000,000 Annapurna / MGM
3/2/2018 Red Sparrow $26,000,000 $84,000,000 Fox
3/9/2018 Gringo $3,000,000 $7,500,000 STXfilms
3/9/2018 The Hurricane Heist n/a n/a Entertainment Studios
3/9/2018 Strangers: Prey at Night $4,000,000 $8,500,000 Aviron
3/9/2018 A Wrinkle In Time $52,000,000 $154,000,000 Disney
3/16/2018 Love, Simon $13,000,000 $40,000,000 Fox
3/16/2018 Tomb Raider $22,000,000 $55,000,000 Warner Bros.
3/16/2018 Untitled A24 Horror n/a n/a A24
3/23/2018 Midnight Sun $6,000,000 NEW $15,000,000 NEW Open Road
3/23/2018 Pacific Rim Uprising $20,000,000 NEW $49,000,000 NEW Universal
3/23/2018 Sherlock Gnomes $12,000,000 NEW $45,000,000 NEW Paramount
3/23/2018 Unsane n/a NEW n/a NEW Bleecker Street

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