Memorial Day weekend is often one of the biggest of any year for the industry as studios roll out blockbuster-hopefuls and/or look for their earlier May releases to stretch their legs as summer prepares for full swing. This year looks to fit the bill with two high profile titles debuting on May’s final Friday, both of which will offer audiences ocean-themed, popcorn viewing.
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales
Disney
Several years and delays in the making, the fifth Captain Jack Sparrow adventure ends a six-year absence of the eponymous pirate from the big screen. The return of Johnny Depp alone should ensure that the film remains a globally viable property, and early reactions to the first trailer have been mostly positive. Fans of the series are looking to be won over again, though, after On Stranger Tides disappointed many die hard viewers. So far, Disney looks to be on the right course, but some further drop-off at the domestic box office is to be expected.
Baywatch
Paramount
Dwayne Johnson has become one of the most reliable box office draws over the last few years, a fact that makes this latest TV-to-film jump one to watch for. Adding Zac Efron into the mix — who proved his comedic chops in the Neighbors films — further validates the R-rated comedic potential of this film when it comes to star power. If the gang have adopted the 21 Jump Street playbook in a way that works for this particular brand, we may be looking at one of the biggest comedies of the summer (if not the year).
This Week’s Other Additions, Changes, & Notes
- In general, April 7’s releases continue to fluctuate as it looks to be a slow weekend for openers relative to the record-breaking March we’re coming out of. Smurfs, especially, will be susceptible if The Boss Baby breaks out beyond expectations.
- The Fate of the Furious is beginning to pull further ahead of Fast & Furious 6 in traditional industry tracking, although it remains behind the pace of Furious 7 (as expected).
Check out our forecasts for these and other upcoming films in the table below.
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day Wide Opening | % Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total | % Chg from Last Week | Location Count |
| 4/7/2017 | The Case for Christ | $2,250,000 | $9,000,000 | 1,100 | ||
| 4/7/2017 | Going In Style (2017) | $12,000,000 | -4% | $41,000,000 | -16% | 3,000 |
| 4/7/2017 | Smurfs: The Lost Village | $24,000,000 | $81,000,000 | 3,400 | ||
| 4/14/2017 | The Fate of the Furious | $118,000,000 | 7% | $283,000,000 | 7% | 4,000 |
| 4/14/2017 | Spark | $2,500,000 | -17% | $6,300,000 | -16% | 2,000 |
| 4/21/2017 | Born in China | $5,500,000 | $19,000,000 | |||
| 4/21/2017 | Free Fire | $8,000,000 | $24,000,000 | |||
| 4/21/2017 | Phoenix Forgotten | n/a | n/a | |||
| 4/21/2017 | The Promise | $2,250,000 | $4,000,000 | |||
| 4/21/2017 | Unforgettable | $10,000,000 | $23,500,000 | |||
| 4/28/2017 | The Circle | $13,000,000 | $40,000,000 | |||
| 4/28/2017 | How to Be a Latin Lover | $6,500,000 | $23,000,000 | |||
| 4/28/2017 | Sleight | $5,000,000 | $11,000,000 | |||
| 5/5/2017 | Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 | $160,000,000 | $400,000,000 | |||
| 5/12/2017 | King Arthur: Legend of the Sword | $23,000,000 | $67,000,000 | |||
| 5/12/2017 | Lowriders | n/a | n/a | |||
| 5/12/2017 | Snatched | $25,000,000 | $85,000,000 | |||
| 5/19/2017 | Alien: Covenant | $35,000,000 | $90,000,000 | |||
| 5/19/2017 | Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul | $10,000,000 | $32,000,000 | |||
| 5/19/2017 | Everything, Everything | $8,500,000 | $26,000,000 | |||
| 5/26/2017 | Baywatch | $35,000,000 | NEW | $105,000,000 | NEW | |
| 5/26/2017 | Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales | $61,000,000 | NEW | $170,000,000 | NEW |
Shawn Robbins, Alex Edghill, and Jesse Rifkin contributed to this forecast.
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