Long Range Forecast: Will ‘Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales’ & ‘Baywatch’ Lead a Strong Memorial Day?

Memorial Day weekend is often one of the biggest of any year for the industry as studios roll out blockbuster-hopefuls and/or look for their earlier May releases to stretch their legs as summer prepares for full swing. This year looks to fit the bill with two high profile titles debuting on May’s final Friday, both of which will offer audiences ocean-themed, popcorn viewing.

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales

Several years and delays in the making, the fifth Captain Jack Sparrow adventure ends a six-year absence of the eponymous pirate from the big screen. The return of Johnny Depp alone should ensure that the film remains a globally viable property, and early reactions to the first trailer have been mostly positive. Fans of the series are looking to be won over again, though, after On Stranger Tides disappointed many die hard viewers. So far, Disney looks to be on the right course, but some further drop-off at the domestic box office is to be expected.


Dwayne Johnson has become one of the most reliable box office draws over the last few years, a fact that makes this latest TV-to-film jump one to watch for. Adding Zac Efron into the mix — who proved his comedic chops in the Neighbors films — further validates the R-rated comedic potential of this film when it comes to star power. If the gang have adopted the 21 Jump Street playbook in a way that works for this particular brand, we may be looking at one of the biggest comedies of the summer (if not the year).

This Week’s Other Additions, Changes, & Notes

  • In general, April 7’s releases continue to fluctuate as it looks to be a slow weekend for openers relative to the record-breaking March we’re coming out of. Smurfs, especially, will be susceptible if The Boss Baby breaks out beyond expectations.
  • The Fate of the Furious is beginning to pull further ahead of Fast & Furious 6 in traditional industry tracking, although it remains behind the pace of Furious 7 (as expected).

Check out our forecasts for these and other upcoming films in the table below.

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Location Count
4/7/2017 The Case for Christ $2,250,000 $9,000,000 1,100
4/7/2017 Going In Style (2017) $12,000,000 -4% $41,000,000 -16% 3,000
4/7/2017 Smurfs: The Lost Village $24,000,000 $81,000,000 3,400
4/14/2017 The Fate of the Furious $118,000,000 7% $283,000,000 7% 4,000
4/14/2017 Spark $2,500,000 -17% $6,300,000 -16% 2,000
4/21/2017 Born in China $5,500,000 $19,000,000
4/21/2017 Free Fire $8,000,000 $24,000,000
4/21/2017 Phoenix Forgotten n/a n/a
4/21/2017 The Promise $2,250,000 $4,000,000
4/21/2017 Unforgettable $10,000,000 $23,500,000
4/28/2017 The Circle $13,000,000 $40,000,000
4/28/2017 How to Be a Latin Lover $6,500,000 $23,000,000
4/28/2017 Sleight $5,000,000 $11,000,000
5/5/2017 Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 $160,000,000 $400,000,000
5/12/2017 King Arthur: Legend of the Sword $23,000,000 $67,000,000
5/12/2017 Lowriders n/a n/a
5/12/2017 Snatched $25,000,000 $85,000,000
5/19/2017 Alien: Covenant $35,000,000 $90,000,000
5/19/2017 Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul $10,000,000 $32,000,000
5/19/2017 Everything, Everything $8,500,000 $26,000,000
5/26/2017 Baywatch $35,000,000 NEW $105,000,000 NEW
5/26/2017 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales $61,000,000 NEW $170,000,000 NEW

Shawn Robbins, Alex Edghill, and Jesse Rifkin contributed to this forecast.