Long Range Forecast: Summer Kicks Into High Gear with TOY STORY 5; DEATH OF ROBIN HOOD Shoots for Counterprogramming Dollars

Subscribe to our FREE email newsletters to be notified of our latest updates in pre-release tracking, box office analysis, and industry news.

Long Range Forecast – June 19, 2026

Toy Story 5 | Disney/Pixar

Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $150M – $175M

Between Soul, Turning Red, and Luca receiving a direct-to-Disney+ release strategy and original theatrical titles (Onward, Elio, Elemental, Hoppers) opening under $50M domestically, Pixar has faced some struggles in recent years—but a return to basics should help deliver another hit.

Pixar’s OG franchise returns to the big screen on June 19 with with Toy Story 5, in which Woody and the gang take on tech. It’s the first entry in the core Toy Story series since June 2019’s Toy Story 4, which had the sixth highest domestic opening of that year with $120.9M. Toy Story is Pixar royalty at this point, and the success of June 2024’s Inside Out 2 ($154.2M)—as well as Walt Disney Animation Studio Thanksgiving releases Moana 2 ($139.7M) and Zootopia 2 ($100.2M)—indicate a continued strong appetite for sequels to animated Disney hits. Though the last Toy Story film, June 2022’s Lightyear, faltered at the box office with a $50.5M opening, that film’s status as a spinoff (and a confusinglynpositioned one that) help ease concerns that affection for the Toy Story franchise as a whole may have waned.

Between its early summer release window—which worked out so well for Pixar sequels Inside Out 2, Toy Story 4, Incredibles 2 ($182.6M), and Finding Dory ($135M)—and the dearth of theatrically released animated titles since the April 1 release of Universal’s The Super Mario Galaxy Movie ($131.7M), Toy Story 5 should have little trouble grabbing hold of the box office and holding onto the top spot for a while… until the Wednesday, July 1 release of Universal’s Minions & Monsters, anyway.

The Death of Robin Hood | A24

Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $7M – $10M

Hugh Jackman’s star power should help lift this wide release from A24, which is coming off a massive success with the $81.4M opening of horror title Backrooms. That film succeeded largely due to its popularity with younger audiences, who are less likely to care about yet another Robin Hood movie—though a high-wattage cast of Jackman, Jodie Comer, Bill Skarsgård, and the up-and-coming Noah Jupe (Hamnet, 2027’s A Quiet Place Part III) should help attract older moviegoers looking for something to see that isn’t Toy Story 5.

Jackman recently appeared in Amazon MGM’s early May release The Sheep Detectives, which opened to $15M domestically and is emerging as something of a sleeper hit in the U.K. and Ireland. Last Christmas Jackman and Kate Hudson toplined Song Sung Blue, which got off to a slow start with $7M before eventually topping out at $39.1M.

Tracking Updates [As Of 6/5/26]