This week’s update is somewhat atypical as our report moves into the post-Thanksgiving weekend corridor — a window normally avoided by most major studios as moviegoers come down from a slew of big releases the month before and move into full-on shopping season before the second wind of holiday releases hits in the middle of December.
It’s also a chance for November’s top holdovers to continue raking in business without worry of much competition. To that end, November 22’s Frozen II looks to be a likely three-weekend champion.
That being said, two films currently pop up on the slate for Friday, December 6: STX’s Brahms: The Boy 2 and PLAYMOBIL: The Movie. The caveat to their current positioning, however, is that it’s rare for a studio to release two wide openers on the same day — even though they do appeal to vastly different audiences.
For that reason, we’re not ruling out the possibility both films stick to that release date. However, given the the numerous combined delays of both titles so far, we’re holding off until closer to release date for further confirmation that one or both will indeed remain on that date.
The reasoning for another move(s) isn’t hard to imagine, particularly for PLAYMOBIL as it would open just two weeks after Frozen II, one week before Jumanji: The Next Level, two weeks before Star Wars: The Rise of the Skywalker, and less than three weeks before Spies In Disguise — all of which are shoe-ins to attract young audiences and dwarf potential interest in PLAYMOBIL. In fact, we’re expecting a big uptick in year-to-year December business thanks to those tentpole titles.
Speaking of the Jumanji threequel, it will be one of the three focuses (along with Black Christmas and Richard Jewell) in our long range forecast with next week’s update.
8-Week Forecast
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Range | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Forecast | % Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total Forecast | % Chg from Last Week | Estimated Location Count | Distributor |
| 10/18/2019 | Maleficent: Mistress of Evil | $40,000,000 – $55,000,000 | $40,000,000 | $120,000,000 | 3,700 | Disney | ||
| 10/18/2019 | Zombieland 2: Double Tap | $24,000,000 – $34,000,000 | $30,000,000 | $77,000,000 | 3,400 | Sony / Columbia | ||
| 10/25/2019 | Black and Blue | $6,000,000 – $11,000,000 | $8,500,000 | -23% | $23,000,000 | -28% | 2,000 | Sony / Screen Gems |
| 10/25/2019 | Countdown | $9,000,000 – $14,000,000 | $12,000,000 | -14% | $28,000,000 | -14% | 2,500 | STX |
| 10/25/2019 | The Current War: Director’s Cut | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | 101 Studios | ||
| 11/1/2019 | Arctic Dogs | $5,000,000 – $10,000,000 | $6,000,000 | -14% | $24,500,000 | Entertainment Studios | ||
| 11/1/2019 | Harriet | n/a | n/a | n/a | Focus Features | |||
| 11/1/2019 | Motherless Brooklyn | n/a | n/a | n/a | Warner Bros. | |||
| 11/1/2019 | Terminator: Dark Fate | $38,000,000 – $48,000,000 | $40,000,000 | 5% | $89,500,000 | 5% | Paramount | |
| 11/8/2019 | Doctor Sleep | $20,000,000 – $30,000,000 | $25,000,000 | $92,000,000 | Warner Bros. | |||
| 11/8/2019 | Last Christmas | $12,000,000 – $17,000,000 | $15,000,000 | $80,000,000 | Universal | |||
| 11/8/2019 | Midway | $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 | $13,000,000 | $47,000,000 | Lionsgate | |||
| 11/8/2019 | Playing with Fire | $7,000,000 – $12,000,000 | $8,000,000 | $33,000,000 | Paramount | |||
| 11/15/2019 | Charlie’s Angels (2019) | $25,000,000 – $35,000,000 | $29,000,000 | $78,000,000 | Sony / Columbia | |||
| 11/15/2019 | The Good Liar | n/a | n/a | n/a | Warner Bros. | |||
| 11/15/2019 | Ford v. Ferrari | $25,000,000 – $35,000,000 | $32,000,000 | $115,000,000 | Fox | |||
| 11/22/2019 | 21 Bridges | $9,000,000 – $14,000,000 | $10,000,000 | $34,000,000 | STX | |||
| 11/22/2019 | A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood | $16,000,000 – $21,000,000 | $19,000,000 | $105,000,000 | Sony / Columbia | |||
| 11/22/2019 | Frozen 2 | $115,000,000 – $145,000,000 | $125,000,000 | $450,000,000 | Disney | |||
| 11/27/2019 | Knives Out | $15,000,000 – $20,000,000 | $17,500,000 | $70,000,000 | Lionsgate | |||
| 11/27/2019 | Queen & Slim | $7,000,000 – $12,000,000 | $8,000,000 | $30,000,000 | Universal | |||
| 11/29/2019 | Dark Waters (Expansion) | n/a | n/a | n/a | Focus Features | |||
| 12/6/2019 | Brahms: The Boy 2 | n/a | n/a | n/a | STX | |||
| 12/6/2019 | PLAYMOBIL: The Movie | n/a | n/a | n/a | STX |
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Alex Edghill contributed to this report
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