Long Range Forecast: Will Tom Cruise Lead ‘The Mummy’ Reboot to Summer Success?

This week’s edition of the Long Range Forecast greets Universal’s latest remake of The Mummy, starring Tom Cruise, Sofia Boutella, and Russell Crowe. The film opens June 9.

The Mummy
Universal

PROS:

  • Tom Cruise has proven his capability toremain a major drawing force at the global box office with the last two Mission: Impossible films, plus the excellent word of mouth and staying power exhibited by 2014’s Edge of Tomorrow. He could help reel in adult audiences otherwise unsure about their interest in another remake of this franchise.
  • Social media activity is solid so far, boasting much stronger activity on Facebook and Twitter at the same point before release than did The Legend of Tarzan last year.
  • With Transformers: The Last Knight serving as its biggest direct competition until July (and not opening until Mummy‘s third weekend), this film has some breathing room to help build out staying power if audiences respond positively.
  • It remains to be seen whether audiences are truly excited about the studio’s planned monster cinematic universe (dubbed “Universal Monsters”) — but this seems as good a way as any to kick it off.

CONS:

  • The adult audience Cruise will be gunning to attract is the same one that drove Stephen Sommers’ first two Mummy films, starring Brendan Fraser, to huge success in 1999 and 2001. This remake will need to deliver something unique — in addition to Cruise — in order for it to stand out among that crowd.
  • While Cruise’s box office power remains healthy (especially overseas), he has nonetheless delivered modest results outside of the Mission franchise recently. Examples: Oblivion and Edge of Tomorrow‘s own lukewarm domestic opening weekend (which was mitigated by its strong staying power).
  • The success of Wonder Woman could be a factor here. If that film hits in a big way the weekend before, particularly after a month of May filled with action films, audiences may be ready for a brief mid-summer reprieve from special effects extravaganzas.

This Week’s Other Changes & Notes

  • Tracking and social media activity for The Circle continue to inspire cautious expectations.
  • The move of Baywatch to a Thursday release before Memorial Day is likely a means of avoiding head-to-head competition on opening day with Pirates of the Caribbean. Still, our long-term outlook for the R-rated comedy continues to improve bit by bit.
  • A24’s It Comes at Night has been excluded from our public forecast for the time being. Although it’s also slated to open wide on June 9, the distributor’s limited history of wide releases suggest plans could change on that end. That said, we have growing confidence in the film’s potential to be a mid-summer horror sleeper.

Check out our 8-week forecast in the table below.

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Location Count Distributor
4/21/2017 Born in China $5,000,000 $17,300,000 1,500 Disneynature
4/21/2017 Free Fire $3,500,000 $11,000,000 700 A24
4/21/2017 Phoenix Forgotten n/a n/a 1,500 Cinelou Films
4/21/2017 The Promise $2,250,000 $4,500,000 2,000 Open Road Films
4/21/2017 Unforgettable $10,500,000 $24,500,000 2,350 Warner Bros.
4/28/2017 The Circle $10,000,000 -23% $30,000,000 -25% 2,800 STX Entertainment
4/28/2017 How to Be a Latin Lover $6,500,000 $23,000,000 1,000 Lionsgate
4/28/2017 Sleight $5,000,000 $11,000,000 1,600 BH Tilt
5/5/2017 Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 $160,000,000 $400,000,000 Disney
5/12/2017 King Arthur: Legend of the Sword $23,000,000 $67,000,000 Warner Bros.
5/12/2017 Lowriders n/a n/a BH Tilt
5/12/2017 Snatched $25,000,000 $85,000,000 Fox
5/19/2017 Alien: Covenant $35,000,000 $90,000,000 Fox
5/19/2017 Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul $10,000,000 $32,000,000 Fox
5/19/2017 Everything, Everything $8,500,000 $26,000,000 Warner Bros.
5/25/2017 Baywatch $35,000,000
$42,000,000 4-day
$120,000,000 4% Paramount
5/26/2017 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales $61,000,000
$75,000,000 4-day
$190,000,000 Disney
6/2/2017 Captain Underpants $24,000,000 $80,000,000 Fox / DreamWorks Animation
6/2/2017 Wonder Woman $83,000,000 $225,000,000 Warner Bros.
6/9/2017 It Comes At Night n/a NEW n/a NEW A24
6/9/2017 The Mummy (2017) $50,000,000 NEW $143,000,000 NEW Universal

Shawn Robbins, Alex Edghill, and Jesse Rifkin contributed to this report.

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