This week’s edition of the Long Range Forecast takes an advance look at the third and final film in the Maze Runner trilogy, The Death Cure. In addition, with 2017 entering its final weeks, expectations for several key holiday releases continue to shift — namely Star Wars: The Last Jedi and Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, among a few other updates in the chart below.
Maze Runner: The Death Cure
- The franchise’s first two installments proved very successful in their box office runs, earning over $660 million worldwide combined. Domestically, the first film was leggy relative to most young adult adaptations as it earned $102.4 million off a $32.5 million first weekend in September 2014.
- Dylan O’Brien’s fan base will likely turn out again for this film as his profile has continued to strengthen among young women since the second film in 2015. In particular, fans will welcome his return to close out the series following his on-set accident that delayed Death Cure‘s production and release.
- As the only major studio release currently slated for the final weekend of January, competition for the target audience should be fairly minimal.
- Although it was still a very respectable run, the second film — The Scorch Trials — experienced diminished returns domestically as it opened to $30.3 million and closed out with $81.7 million. This has become a typical trend for the young adult sub-genre in recent years (Divergent being the most high profile example) as similar adaptations have softened in popularity and demand at the box office.
- Social media buzz is a bit more modest for this entry than it was for Scorch Trials at the same point before release. In particular, Twitter activity has been more muted up to this point. However, with a major holiday corridor between now and release (unlike what the first two films experienced), that could easily change over the next two months.
This Week’s Notes & Other Changes
- Forecasts for Star Wars: The Last Jedi remain in flux to some degree, a natural state for any film expected to perform at such a high level even when based on conservative projections. Based on various models and tracking trends, our range continues to point toward a domestic opening weekend between $185 million and $215 million. Our official pinpoint forecast for this week remains closer to the high-end of that range, although we’re scaling back expectations slightly more when it comes to the finishing mark. Our current range for the latter figure calls for a North American total likely between $650 million and $750 million.
- Marketing for Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle has come on strong just over one month from release, and the studio’s decision to sneak the film for special early showings on December 8 displays even more confidence in the product they have on hand. Based on social media performance and tracking trends, we continue to expect a strong counter-programmer over the holidays even in the face of Star Wars: The Last Jedi.
- Our first forecasts for All the Money in the World are now listed in the chart below.
- Pitch Perfect 3‘s early marketing spots have focused largely on nostalgic clips from the first two films. Combined with slimmer pre-release social buzz than its predecessor, we’ve lowered our forecasts slightly but continue to expect a healthy run overall as the top female-leaning film on the remainder of this year’s calendar.
The 8-Week Forecast:
|Release Date||Title||3-Day Wide Opening||% Chg from Last Week||Domestic Total||% Chg from Last Week||Location Count||Distributor|
|12/8/2017||The Disaster Artist||n/a||n/a||n/a||A24|
|12/8/2017||Just Getting Started||$8,000,000||$36,000,000||n/a||Broad Green Pictures|
|12/15/2017||Star Wars: The Last Jedi||$210,000,000||-2%||$690,000,000||-7%||Disney|
|12/20/2017||The Greatest Showman||$11,000,000||$75,000,000||Fox|
|12/20/2017||Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle||$28,000,000||27%||$190,000,000||9%||Sony / Columbia|
|12/22/2017||All the Money in the World||$4,000,000||NEW||$23,500,000||NEW||TriStar|
|12/22/2017||Pitch Perfect 3||$34,000,000||-15%||$121,000,000||-11%||Universal|
|12/22/2017||Father Figures||$7,000,000||$41,000,000||Warner Bros.|
|12/29/2017||(no films scheduled currently)||–||–||–|
|1/5/2018||Insidious: The Last Key||$19,500,000||$34,500,000||Universal|
|1/12/2018||Condorito: La Pelicula||$5,000,000||$12,500,000||Lionsgate|
|1/12/2018||Paddington 2||$19,000,000||$70,000,000||Warner Bros.|
|1/12/2018||The Post (expansion)||$20,000,000||$90,000,000||Fox|
|1/12/2018||Proud Mary||$17,000,000||$55,000,000||Sony / Screen Gems|
|1/19/2018||12 Strong||$10,000,000||$36,000,000||Warner Bros.|
|1/19/2018||Den of Thieves||$6,500,000||$13,000,000||STXfilms|
|1/26/2018||Maze Runner: The Death Cure||$24,000,000||NEW||$65,000,000||NEW||Fox|