Long Range Forecast: WUTHERING HEIGHTS, GOAT, CRIME 101, SCARLET Provide Valentine’s Day Weekend Moviegoers with Counterprogramming Options

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Long Range Forecast — February 13, 2026

Wuthering Heights | Warner Bros.

Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $20M – $25M

Director Emerald Fennell follows up on the specialty success of edgy titles Promising Young Woman and Saltburn with an adaptation of Emile Brontë’s celebrated novel, timed to release over Valentine’s Day weekend.

Over the last decade, Warner Bros. has released a pair of romance-heavy movies on Valentine’s Day weekend—2019’s Isn’t It Romantic ($14.2M domestic opening) and 2016’s How to Be Single ($17.8M domestic opening)—though these differ from Wuthering Heights due to their more comic bent. Recent non-Warner Bros. titles to try and romance the audience during a mid-February release corridor include 2022’s Marry Me ($7.9M), 2020’s The Photograph ($12.1M), 2019’s What Men Want ($18.2M), and—the undisputed box office champs of the Valentine’s Day romantic drama set—Fifty Shades of Grey ($85.1M), Fifty Shades Darker ($46.6M), and Fifty Shades Freed ($38.5M).

GOAT | Sony

Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $15M – $25M

Stephen Curry produces Sony Pictures Animation’s basketball-themed family film GOAT, looking to make an impact in the winter among the kid crowd. A domestic opening on the higher end of our $15M – $25M range would put GOAT alongside fellow Sony family title Peter Rabbit ($25M domestic opening), also released in February. Other non-sequel Sony Pictures Animation titles to hit theaters over the last decade include 2017’s The Emoji Movie ($24.5M) and 2015’s Goosebumps ($23.6M); Sony also distributed (though not through their SPA division) 2016’s The Angry Birds Movie ($38.1M). In terms of basketball-themed children’s entertainment, the most recent pre-GOAT wide release is Warner Bros.’ Space Jam: A New Legacy, a live-action/animation hybrid starring LeBron James; that film opened to $31M in the summer of 2021 en route to a $70.5M domestic total.

Crime 101 | Amazon/MGM

Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $12M – $18M

Amazon MGM featured compelling footage from Chris Hemsworth-starring crime thriller Crime 101, based on a Don Winslow novella, at CinemaCon 2025. What our forecasting panel saw piqued its interest; the real question is if audiences will turn out in a dormant Q1. Crime 101 opens three weeks after Mercy, another crime thriller starring an MCU alumni named Chris (Pratt, this time); our forecasting panel has that film opening slightly under Crime 101, between $10M and $15M. Other crime thrillers to receive a February debut include 2016’s Triple Nine ($6.1M), 2015’s Focus ($18.6M), and 2016’s London Has Fallen ($21.6M). Hemsworth previously led the Michael Mann-directed crime thriller Blackhat, which opened to $3.9M in January 2015.

Scarlet | Sony/Crunchyroll

Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $1M – $2M

This anime title received a boost in our forecasting after moving from December 2025 (a week before Avatar!) to its current position in early February, where it should fare better. The film will debut on IMAX a week ahead of a wide roll out. As far as February anime releases are concerned, the franchise to beat is the Sony-distributed Demon Slayer, installments of which have opened to $11.5M (2024’s Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba – To the Hashira Training) and $10.1M (2023’s Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba – To the Swordsmith Village), debut totals that Scarlet is highly unlikely to beat. A more reasonable benchmark to aim for would be the $1.5M debut of January 2022’s Belle, like Scarlet a fantasy anime from acclaimed director Mamoru Hosoda. Other anime titles to open in the $1M – $2M range include 2016’s Your Name and 2020’s Weathering With You, each of which debuted to $1.8M.

Tracking Updates [As Of 1/2/26]