Long Range Tracking: ‘Action Point,’ ‘Adrift,’ & Updates on ‘Avengers: Infinity War’

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This week’s report takes an early look at the first weekend of June 2018, currently set for the wide release of Johnny Knoxville’s Action Point and the romance-survival drama Adrift, starring Shailene Woodley and Sam Claflin.

Fans of Jackass and Bad Grandpa will be the target crowd for Knoxville’s return to the big screen in Action Point, with the recent trailer generating fairly positive reception online. If Paramount successfully plays up the fact that the movie’s stunts are genuine (ala the Jackass franchise), and if positive reviews follow, this could be a release to keep an eye on.

Counter-programming with a focus on mostly female audiences, Adrift could attract young adult date night crowds that helped make previous summer titles like The Shallows and 47 Meters Down successful. Social media growth thus far is modest, but that’s to be expected this far out from release.

This Week’s Key Updates

  • Rampage is looking stronger as next week’s opening approaches. The film is making significant gains across all tracking metrics as Dwayne Johnson’s star power remains the key to interest levels now lining up with comparable titles such as Oblivion and The Legend of Tarzan.

Avengers: Infinity War Tracking

  • Avengers: Infinity War continues to outpace all films in the superhero genre. Traditional industry tracking released this week backed up our own previous tracking reports indicating that the film should have little trouble cracking $200 million in its first weekend, although Disney and rival outlets are both projecting more conservatively than our current forecast models suggest. Robust marketing, interest, social media footprints, and pre-sale activity further underscore increasing expectations.

At this time, Boxoffice tracking ranges for the next Marvel tentpole are:

Domestic Opening Weekend: $219 million – $240 million
Domestic Total Gross: $550 million – $615 million

Current pinpoint forecasts are listed in the table below and will be updated as necessary in the weeks ahead.

8-Week Tracking:

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
4/13/2018 Rampage $37,000,000 19% $85,000,000 18% 3,950 Warner Bros. / New Line
4/13/2018 Sgt. Stubby: An American Hero n/a n/a n/a Fun Academy
4/13/2018 Truth or Dare $14,000,000 -7% $28,000,000 -7% 3,000 Universal
4/20/2018 I Feel Pretty $17,000,000 -15% $57,000,000 -15% 3,200 STXfilms
4/20/2018 Super Troopers 2 $5,000,000 $9,000,000 2,200 Fox Searchlight
4/20/2018 Traffik $3,500,000 $8,750,000 1,500 Lionsgate / Summit
4/27/2018 Avengers: Infinity War $225,000,000 5% $586,000,000 9% Disney
5/4/2018 Bad Samaritan n/a n/a Electric Entertainment
5/4/2018 Overboard $14,000,000 $39,000,000 Lionsgate / Pantelion
5/4/2018 Tully n/a n/a Focus Features
5/11/2018 Breaking In $14,000,000 $37,500,000 Universal
5/11/2018 Life of the Party $21,000,000 $54,000,000 Warner Bros. / New Line
5/18/2018 Book Club $6,000,000 $19,000,000 Paramount
5/18/2018 Deadpool 2 $100,000,000 $242,000,000 Fox
5/18/2018 Show Dogs $8,000,000 $25,000,000 Open Road
5/25/2018 Solo: A Star Wars Story $150,000,000 $390,000,000 Disney
6/1/2018 Action Point $17,000,000 NEW $42,500,000 NEW Paramount
6/1/2018 Adrift $10,000,000 NEW $34,000,000 NEW STXfilms

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