Long Range Tracking: Detective Pikachu Poised for May Breakout; The Hustle & Poms to Court Mother’s Day Moviegoers

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This week’s report continues our look ahead to the early summer slate with three new additions hoping to fend off the third weekend of Avengers: Endgame. Who will come out ahead?

Detective Pikachu
Opening Weekend Range: $75 million+

PROS:

  • The Pokémon brand is a cultural phenomenon around the globe, ranking among the top selling intellectual properties of the past two decades, most recently evidenced by the wildly popular Pokémon GO mobile game.
  • Social media activity since the film’s first trailer launch has been stellar, breaking our internal Twitter tracking record with 400,000+ mentions on the day of release.
  • Fresh off the blockbuster success of the Deadpool films, Ryan Reynolds’ voice presence behind this franchise’s most recognizable and popular character could further bolster appeal to the curious and uninitiated audiences.
  • 1999’s animated film, Pokémon: The First Movie, earned over $31 million on opening weekend and $85.7 million domestically — and that was before the now-multi-generational brand was well-known outside its core followers. To that end, a live action film has long been anticipated by its loyal and far-reaching fan base.
  • Opening in the third weekend of Avengers: Endgame and two weeks before Aladdin could give it enough breathing room for a pre-Memorial Day breakout, especially if the former of those two competitors delivers another ending too dark for parents with young kids.

CONS:

  • While two weeks sandwiching this film between two major Disney titles should be enough, Endgame‘s third weekend could still prove formidable enough to cut into this film’s potential casual audience.
  • The brand’s popularity is undeniable, although there is acknowledgement that buzz could be heavily skewed by international audiences relative to most other franchise films.

The Hustle
Opening Weekend Range: $9 – 14 million

PROS:

  • Anne Hathaway and Rebel Wilson provide notable star power in this remake of Dirty Rotten Scoundrels, timed for a Mother’s Day weekend release in hopes of drawing young-to-middle-aged women.

CONS:

  • Direct competition with the weekend’s other female-driven opener (see below) could cut into this film’s opening potential.

Poms
Opening Weekend Range: $10 – 15 million

PROS:

  • An ensemble cast led by Diane Keaton should appeal strongly to fans of last year’s Book Club, particularly among audiences aged 50 and up, on Mother’s Day weekend.

CONS:

  • Any crossover the film might have with The Hustle due to potential mother-daughter outings for the holiday weekend could cut into performance.

8-Week Tracking

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Release Tracking % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Forecast % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
3/22/2019 Us $48,000,000 9% $147,000,000 9% 3,600 Universal
3/29/2019 Dumbo (2019) $60,000,000   $179,000,000   4,000 Disney
3/29/2019 Unplanned $1,500,000   $3,500,000   800 Pure Flix
4/5/2019 The Best of Enemies $10,000,000   $30,000,000   STX
4/5/2019 Pet Sematary (2019) $27,000,000 -4% $63,000,000 -3% Paramount
4/5/2019 Shazam! $49,000,000 2% $160,000,000 11% Warner Bros.
4/12/2019 After (2019) n/a   n/a   Aviron
4/12/2019 Hellboy (2019) $16,000,000 -20% $34,000,000 -19% Lionsgate / Summit
4/12/2019 Little $15,000,000   $43,000,000   Universal
4/12/2019 Missing Link $10,000,000   $39,000,000   Annapurna Pictures
4/17/2019 Breakthrough $15,000,000   $56,000,000   Fox
4/17/2019 Penguins $4,500,000   $17,500,000   Disney / Disneynature
4/19/2019 The Curse of La Llorona $20,000,000   $45,000,000   Warner Bros. (New Line)
4/26/2019 Avengers: Endgame $265,000,000   $635,000,000 -9% Disney / Marvel
5/3/2019 The Intruder $14,500,000   $40,000,000   Sony / Columbia
5/3/2019 Long Shot $16,000,000   $60,000,000   Lionsgate / Summit
5/3/2019 Uglydolls $8,000,000   $27,000,000   STX
5/10/2019 All Is True n/a   n/a     Sony Classics
5/10/2019 Detective Pikachu $90,000,000 NEW $250,000,000 NEW Warner Bros.
5/10/2019 The Hustle $12,500,000 NEW $35,000,000 NEW Mirror Films / MGM
5/10/2019 Poms $12,500,000 NEW $45,000,000 NEW STX

Note: The original publication of this report incorrectly cited Universal as the distributor for Detective Pikachu.

Alex Edghill contributed to this report

Forecasts subject to change as location counts are finalized before Friday.

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