One of early 2019’s most buzzed-about new releases is the focus of our long range report this week, filmmaker Jordan Peele’s anticipated follow-up project to 2017’s Get Out.
Us
Opening Weekend Range: $35M – $55M
PROS:
- Jordan Peele shot to immediate star filmmaker status with the wildly successful Get Out two years ago, which bowed to $33.4 million and legged out to $176 million domestically — earning praise from audiences, critics, and award guilds alike.
- The first trailer has been strongly received since debuting at Christmas, earning more than 13 million views on the first day from Peele’s Twitter announcement post.
- The studio’s decision to delay the film’s release until after a premiere at SXSW in March could serve to drum buzz up even higher. Incidentally, it also now has two weeks of breathing room after Captain Marvel‘s release.
- Horror/thriller films have remained stalwart box office draws in recent years, and this is undoubtedly the first “event” original film from the genre in 2019. Fans will be hungry for something fresh and exciting.
- Our most recent Trailer Impact survey indicates 73 percent of surveyed audiences are interested in the film, a strong representation for a horror title two months out from release.
- Still riding the momentum of Get Out and its cultural impact, Peele’s profile should help Us to effectively behave like a spiritual sequel to that film during opening weekend — especially given the studio’s strong early marketing push.
CONS:
- Until reviews and screening reactions are available, it’s challenging to assess whether or not Us will have the kind of staying power Get Out and films like A Quiet Place enjoyed — largely due to the widespread interest in what Peele has in store for his second directorial effort and how the film will play among the masses.
- Pet Sematary will open during this film’s third weekend, which could siphon away some horror fans if that Stephen King remake builds significant buzz.
8-Week Tracking
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day Wide Release Tracking | % Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total Forecast | % Chg from Last Week | Estimated Location Count | Distributor |
| 2/1/2019 | Miss Bala | $7,500,000 | -17% | $21,000,000 | -17% | 2,000 | Sony / Columbia |
| 2/8/2019 | Cold Pursuit | $12,000,000 | -8% | $37,500,000 | -6% | 2,700 | Lionsgate / Summit |
| 2/8/2019 | The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part | $55,000,000 | -7% | $186,400,000 | -7% | 4,000 | Warner Bros. |
| 2/8/2019 | The Prodigy | $5,500,000 | $12,000,000 | 2,500 | Orion Pictures | ||
| 2/8/2019 | What Men Want | $25,000,000 | $63,000,000 | 3,000 | Paramount | ||
| 2/13/2019 | Happy Death Day 2U | $20,000,000 | $52,000,000 | Universal | |||
| 2/13/2019 | Isn’t It Romantic | $15,000,000 | 7% | $57,000,000 | 6% | Warner Bros. | |
| 2/14/2019 | Alita: Battle Angel | $15,500,000 | $44,000,000 | Fox | |||
| 2/14/2019 | Fighting with My Family | n/a | n/a | MGM | |||
| 2/22/2019 | How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World | $44,000,000 | $155,000,000 | Universal | |||
| 2/22/2019 | The Turning | n/a | n/a | Universal / Amblin | |||
| 3/1/2019 | Tyler Perry’s A Madea Family Funeral | $27,000,000 | $68,000,000 | Lionsgate | |||
| 3/8/2019 | Captain Marvel | $160,000,000 | $440,000,000 | -5% | Disney / Marvel | ||
| 3/15/2019 | No Manches Frida 2 | n/a | n/a | Lionsgate / Pantelion Films | |||
| 3/15/2019 | Five Feet Apart | $11,000,000 | $37,000,000 | Lionsgate | |||
| 3/15/2019 | Wonder Park | $8,000,000 | $30,000,000 | Paramount | |||
| 3/22/2019 | The Informer | n/a | n/a | Aviron | |||
| 3/22/2019 | Us | $42,000,000 | NEW | $135,000,000 | NEW | Universal |
Tracking and forecasts are subject to change each week as marketing, reviews, and other factors are taken into consideration.
Contact us for information about subscribing to Boxoffice.com’s suite of forecasting and data services.
Share this post