Long Range Tracking: ‘Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom’ & ‘Deadpool 2’ Updates

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This week’s report focuses on Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom — the fifth installment in the Jurassic Park franchise, which will be in the midst of celebrating its 25th anniversary this summer.

The return of stars Chris Pratt and Bryce Dallas Howard will please fans of 2015’s Jurassic World, while older fans are eagerly anticipating the return of Jeff Goldblum’s Ian Malcolm character, whom hasn’t been seen in the franchise since 1997’s The Lost WorldFallen Kingdom‘s early teaser reactions weren’t as positively received as those of its predecessor initially, but the most recent payoff trailer has generated more positive reactions online.

While comparing social media trends for this sequel to the 2015 film could be hit and miss due to severe under-tracking three years ago, Kingdom‘s same-point metrics are comparable to those of fellow Chris Pratt-led sequel Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2. That title bowed to an excellent $146.5 million as 2017’s summer opener, legging its way out to nearly $390 million domestically.

At this time, Fallen Kingdom is tracking for a performance similar to that Marvel sequel, largely due to a more competitive release slate this year. Jurassic World faced a blockbuster Pixar title virtually head-to-head (as its sequel will this summer), but was the first live action tentpole to open over $100 million after early May’s Avengers: Age of Ultron. This year, it’s widely expected that three films in May alone will break past that mark, potentially softening demand for a mid-June action tentpole (not to mention the other expected hits).

In terms of staying power, Jurassic World never faced a live action film that opened to more than $33 million until its sixth weekend of release (Marvel’s Ant-Man). This time around, Ant-Man and the Wasp will bow in Kingdom‘s third weekend, followed by Dwayne Johnson’s Skyscraper one week later. Both will likely cut into some of Jurassic‘s target audience.

Ultimately, while diminished returns are expected, that’s par for the course for many sequels — especially those following unexpected and historic box office runs with unique circumstances and built-up nostalgia driving them. Taking global performance into consideration, Universal should be sitting pretty with another hugely profitable box office run when Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom hits theaters this summer.

Boxoffice is currently tracking Fallen Kingdom for an opening weekend range of $130-150 million and total domestic range of $325-380 million.

This Week’s Other Updates

  • Deadpool 2 debuted on traditional industry tracking this week to a wide range of expectations. Current metrics suggest the film could open anywhere in between $110 million and $140 million. The sequel’s most recent trailer has generated a welcome uptick in social media buzz, and although it still trails the phenomenal footprint of its predecessor, the surge in interest is significant enough to warrant higher forecasts.

8-Week Tracking

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
5/4/2018 Bad Samaritan n/a n/a 1,800 Electric Entertainment
5/4/2018 Overboard $14,000,000 $39,000,000 1,500 Lionsgate / Pantelion
5/4/2018 Tully n/a n/a 1,200 Focus Features
5/11/2018 Breaking In $13,000,000 $34,800,000 2,300 Universal
5/11/2018 Life of the Party $21,000,000 $54,000,000 3,500 Warner Bros. / New Line
5/18/2018 Book Club $8,000,000 33% $25,000,000 32% Paramount
5/18/2018 Deadpool 2 $120,000,000 20% $290,000,000 20% Fox
5/18/2018 Show Dogs $8,000,000 $25,000,000 Global Road Films
5/25/2018 Solo: A Star Wars Story $150,000,000 $390,000,000 Disney
6/1/2018 Action Point $17,000,000 $42,500,000 Paramount
6/1/2018 Adrift $10,000,000 $34,000,000 STXfilms
6/1/2018 Upgrade n/a n/a OTL Releasing / BH Tilt
6/8/2018 Hereditary n/a n/a A24
6/8/2018 Hotel Artemis n/a n/a Global Road Films
6/8/2018 Ocean’s 8 $42,000,000 $145,000,000 Warner Bros.
6/15/2018 The Incredibles 2 $110,000,000 $395,000,000 Disney / Pixar
6/15/2018 Superfly n/a n/a Sony
6/15/2018 Tag $13,000,000 $43,000,000 Warner Bros.
6/15/2018 Untitled Entertainment Studios (2018) n/a n/a Entertainment Studios
6/22/2018 Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom $139,000,000 NEW $350,000,000 NEW Universal

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