This week’s long range report closes out 2019 with an early look at the year’s final wide releases currently on the schedule. Both will open on Christmas Day (a Wednesday this year).
Little Women (2019)
Opening Weekend Range: $15 – 25 million (FSS)
PROS:
- As one of the most beloved literary classics in American history, there’s a significant fan base of varying ages looking forward to a modern adaptation of Louisa May Alcott’s original novel. With the demand for strong female-led films higher than ever, this is the kind of timeless story brought to life by A-list talent that could resonate very well with families during the busy moviegoing season.
- The casting of Saoirse Ronan, Emma Watson, Florence Pugh, Timothée Chalamet, Meryl Streep, and many more cannot be understated as a major strength for the film’s ability to appeal to younger female audiences in addition to what will likely be a strong adult turnout as well.
- Writer/director Greta Gerwig is fresh off the critical and commercial success of Lady Bird, which earned $49 million domestically / $79 million worldwide during its award season run two years ago when it garnered five Oscar nominations — including two for Gerwig herself and one for Little Women‘s own headlining star, Ronan herself. Gerwig putting her own unique stamp on the material could help the film stand out to those who’ve already seen previous iterations.
- Social media trends have been very encouraging since the film’s trailer release during the summer, while the film will have a lengthy runway into the new year and awards season to capture a strong multiple from its Christmas week debut.
CONS:
- This won’t be the only film targeting female audiences during the holidays, with Cats, Bombshell, the holdover power of Frozen II, Jumanji, and Star Wars to some extent each having notable appeal younger and older demographics. Still, we think Little Women is primed to stand out.
- Social media hasn’t responded kindly to the recent release of the film’s posters, often complaining they make the film look more like bland genre fare than the trailer does. It’s likely most fans will judge the film by its own merits, the trailers themselves, and reception as opposed to marketing material, but it’s something the studio will likely want to correct ASAP to be on the safe side if breakout potential is to be maintained.
Spies In Disguise
Opening Weekend Range: $14 – 24 million (FSS)
PROS:
- The star voice combination of Will Smith and Tom Holland could be a solid draw among parents with kids. Smith is coming off the family-driven success of Aladdin this year, while Holland has a notable fan base of young audiences thanks to his turns as Spider-Man in the Marvel Cinematic Universe.
- Opening during the heart of the holiday corridor should help this animated offering achieve staying power into the early part of the new year with minimal post-release competition on the slate until late January.
CONS:
- Competing directly with Star Wars, Jumanji, and Frozen II‘s holdover power won’t be an easy task.
8-Week Tracking & Forecasts
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Tracking Range | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Forecast | % Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total Range | % Chg from Last Week | Estimated Location Count | Distributor |
| 11/8/2019 | Doctor Sleep | $23,000,000 – $33,000,000 | $25,000,000 | $75,000,000 – $100,000,000 | 3,800* | Warner Bros. | ||
| 11/8/2019 | Last Christmas | $15,000,000 – $20,000,000 | $17,000,000 | $75,000,000 – $100,000,000 | 3,300* | Universal | ||
| 11/8/2019 | Midway | $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 | $12,000,000 | -8% | $35,000,000 – $55,000,000 | -8% | 3,000* | Lionsgate |
| 11/8/2019 | Playing with Fire | $7,000,000 – $12,000,000 | $8,000,000 | $30,000,000 – $40,000,000 | 2,800* | Paramount | ||
| 11/15/2019 | Charlie’s Angels (2019) | $15,000,000 – $23,000,000 | $19,000,000 | -5% | $45,000,000 – $70,000,000 | -2% | 3,900 | Sony / Columbia |
| 11/15/2019 | The Good Liar | $5,000,000 – $10,000,000 | $8,000,000 | $30,000,000 – $45,000,000 | 2,500 | Warner Bros. | ||
| 11/15/2019 | Ford v. Ferrari | $25,000,000 – $35,000,000 | $32,000,000 | $100,000,000 – $140,000,000 | 9% | 3,950 | Fox | |
| 11/22/2019 | 21 Bridges | $9,000,000 – $14,000,000 | $10,000,000 | $30,000,000 – $45,000,000 | STX | |||
| 11/22/2019 | A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood | $16,000,000 – $21,000,000 | $19,000,000 | $85,000,000 – $115,000,000 | Sony / Columbia | |||
| 11/22/2019 | Frozen 2 | $115,000,000 – $145,000,000 | $125,000,000 | $420,000,000 – $520,000,000 | Disney | |||
| 11/27/2019 | Knives Out | $15,000,000 – $20,000,000 | $17,500,000 | $60,000,000 – $85,000,000 | Lionsgate | |||
| 11/27/2019 | Queen & Slim | $7,000,000 – $12,000,000 | $8,000,000 | $25,000,000 – $35,000,000 | Universal | |||
| 11/29/2019 | Dark Waters (Expansion) | n/a | n/a | n/a | Focus Features | |||
| 12/6/2019 | PLAYMOBIL: The Movie | $3,000,000 – $8,000,000 | $4,500,000 | $10,000,000 – $20,000,000 | STX | |||
| 12/13/2019 | Black Christmas | $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 | $12,000,000 | $28,000,000 – $38,000,000 | Universal | |||
| 12/13/2019 | Jumanji: The Next Level | $66,000,000 – $76,000,000 | $70,000,000 | $250,000,000 – $300,000,000 | Sony / Columbia | |||
| 12/13/2019 | Richard Jewell | $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 | $13,000,000 | 18% | $60,000,000 – $80,000,000 | 14% | Warner Bros. | |
| 12/20/2019 | Cats | $10,000,000 – $20,000,000 | $14,000,000 | $60,000,000 – $120,000,000 | Universal | |||
| 12/20/2019 | Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker | $185,000,000 – $225,000,000 | $200,000,000 | $550,000,000 – $750,000,000 | Disney / Lucasfilm | |||
| 12/20/2019 | Bombshell (Wide Expansion) | $5,000,000 – $10,000,000 | $5,000,000 | $30,000,000 – $45,000,000 | Lionsgate | |||
| 12/25/2019 | Little Women (2019) | $16,000,000 – $26,000,000 | $20,000,000 | NEW | $80,000,000 – $120,000,000 | NEW | Sony / Columbia | |
| 12/25/2019 | Spies in Disguise | $13,000,000 – $23,000,000 | $16,000,000 | NEW | $70,000,000 – $110,000,000 | NEW | Fox / Blue Sky |
* = official studio estimate
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Alex Edghill contributed to this report
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