This week’s report marks our first look at March 2020 with the inaugural weekend of the month slated to welcome two new wide releases: Disney / Pixar’s Onward and Warner Bros.’ The Way Back.
Additionally, we’ve updated projections for other upcoming titles like Dolittle and The Turning in the chart below.
Onward
Opening Weekend Range: $50 – 70 million
PROS:
- Aside from only one or two blemishes in their quarter-century history at the box office, Pixar remains an incredibly reliable brand that is as close to an automatic sell for parents and kids as there is in the industry today.
- Voice stars Chris Pratt and Tom Holland could bring along their Marvel Cinematic Universe goodwill with them as part of the Disney family, providing another selling point for parents and young audiences alike.
- Older fans of the studio are enthusiastic about Pixar’s return to original storytelling this year with two standalone properties on the slate (this film and summer’s Soul) after several years focusing on sequels to their more established IPs.
- Animated offerings are few and far between early in the year, providing plenty of runway for this to take off if marketing and reviews hit their targets. Initial awareness and interest have been strong with marketing getting a big footprint in front of Frozen II and Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker over the holidays.
CONS:
- Given its nature as an original title without a built-in fan base beyond the Pixar faithful themselves, early models comparing the trailers’ impact aren’t as overwhelmingly strong as recent Pixar films — 2015’s The Good Dinosaur excluded — and appear to be more in line with Coco and Disney’s own Ralph Breaks the Internet.
- As a film about two brothers and their father, appeal to young female audiences may not be as much a driver for this title as it often is for Disney and Pixar animated films.
The Way Back
Opening Weekend Range: $13 – 18 million
PROS:
- Sports dramas can often carve out a place in the market with the right balance of crowd-pleasing elements and star power, the latter of which is provided by Ben Affleck in this case.
CONS:
- Though the trailer has drawn encouraging reactions, it indicates a more serious tone dealing with alcoholism that could push the film to skew more heavily to an adult audience rather than the family-friendly appeal that has elevated past hits of the sports drama breed.
Estimated Location Counts
- Bad Boys for Life (3,700 on January 17)
- Dolittle (3,900 on January 17)
- The Gentlemen (2,300 on January 24)
- The Last Full Measure (n/a January 24)
- Run (n/a January 24)
- The Turning (2,400 on January 24)
8-Week Tracking and Forecasts
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Tracking Range | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Forecast | % Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total Range | Domestic Total Forecast | % Chg from Last Week | Distributor |
| 1/17/2020 | Bad Boys for Life | $25,000,000 – $35,000,000 | $32,000,000 | $70,000,000 – $100,000,000 | $85,000,000 | Sony / Columbia | ||
| 1/17/2020 | Dolittle | $20,000,000 – $35,000,000 | $22,000,000 | -21% | $70,000,000 – $110,000,000 | $84,000,000 | -18% | Universal |
| 1/24/2020 | The Gentlemen | $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 | $12,000,000 | $30,000,000 – $50,000,000 | $38,000,000 | STX | ||
| 1/24/2020 | The Last Full Measure | n/a | n/a | Roadside Attractions | ||||
| 1/24/2020 | Run | n/a | n/a | Lionsgate / Summit | ||||
| 1/24/2020 | The Turning | $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 | $13,000,000 | -7% | $25,000,000 – $40,000,000 | $34,000,000 | -11% | Universal |
| 1/31/2020 | Gretel and Hansel | $5,000,000 – $10,000,000 | $5,500,000 | $10,000,000 – $20,000,000 | $11,000,000 | United Artists Releasing | ||
| 1/31/2020 | The Rhythm Section | $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 | $12,000,000 | $30,000,000 – $45,000,000 | $38,000,000 | Paramount | ||
| 2/7/2020 | Birds of Prey (and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn) | $40,000,000 – $60,000,000 | $49,000,000 | $100,000,000 – $150,000,000 | $125,000,000 | Warner Bros. | ||
| 2/14/2020 | Fantasy Island | $17,000,000 – $22,000,000 | $17,000,000 | $44,000,000 – $57,000,000 | $44,000,000 | Sony / Columbia | ||
| 2/14/2020 | The Photograph | $13,000,000 – $18,000,000 | $15,000,000 | $30,000,000 – $42,000,000 | $35,000,000 | Universal | ||
| 2/14/2020 | Sonic the Hedgehog | $20,000,000 – $30,000,000 | $26,000,000 | $65,000,000 – $100,000,000 | $86,000,000 | Paramount | ||
| 2/21/2020 | Brahms: The Boy 2 | $7,000,000 – $12,000,000 | $8,000,000 | $15,000,000 – $28,000,000 | $17,800,000 | STX | ||
| 2/21/2020 | Call of the Wild | $15,000,000 – $20,000,000 | $15,000,000 | $50,000,000 – $65,000,000 | $50,000,000 | Fox | ||
| 2/28/2020 | The Invisible Man | $20,000,000 – $40,000,000 | $30,000,000 | $60,000,000 – $105,000,000 | $80,000,000 | Universal | ||
| 3/6/2020 | Onward | $50,000,000 – $70,000,000 | $60,000,000 | NEW | $175,000,000 – $250,000,000 | $227,000,000 | NEW | Disney / Pixar |
| 3/6/2020 | The Way Back | $12,000,000 – $17,000,000 | $13,000,000 | NEW | $40,000,000 – $60,000,000 | $43,500,000 | NEW | Warner Bros. |
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