Long Range Tracking: The Gentlemen and The Turning

This week’s report offers up an early read on two films currently slated for on Friday, January 24, 2020 as our first look into the new year continues.

The Gentlemen
Opening Weekend Range: $10 – 15 million

PROS:

  • Director Guy Ritchie’s fans could turn out in healthy fashion for his return to the crime/thriller/comedy genre if reviews prove positive for this project. The ensemble cast may add further appeal to casual adult moviegoers.

  • Early social tracking is unsurprisingly tricky this far out, but leaning positive relative to similar films in the genre.

CONS:

  • Competing with NFL playoffs and opening one week after a holiday frame will be noteworthy challenges.

The Turning
Opening Weekend Range: $10 – 15 million

PROS:

  • Universal has a solid track record of delivering surprise performances from the horror genre, and the PG-13 rating here should further aid appeal to teens.

  • Initial trailer footprint metrics are encouraging as the early marketing stage recently began.

CONS:

  • As the third horror/thriller release of January, it will need to stand out (or the other two disappoint) in order to break out beyond expectations.

8-Week Tracking and Forecasts

Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Tracking Range 3-Day (FSS) Opening Forecast % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Range Domestic Total Forecast % Chg from Last Week Distributor
12/6/2019 Dark Waters (Wide Expansion)   n/a     n/a   Focus Features
12/6/2019 PLAYMOBIL: The Movie $3,000,000 – $8,000,000 $4,500,000   $10,000,000 – $20,000,000 $14,000,000   STX
12/13/2019 Black Christmas $12,000,000 – $17,000,000 $14,000,000 8% $30,000,000 – $40,000,000 $37,700,000 8% Universal
12/13/2019 Jumanji: The Next Level $40,000,000 – $60,000,000 $50,000,000   $225,000,000 – $275,000,000 $265,000,000   Sony / Columbia
12/13/2019 Richard Jewell $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 $13,000,000   $60,000,000 – $80,000,000 $80,000,000   Warner Bros.
12/20/2019 Cats $10,000,000 – $20,000,000 $14,000,000   $60,000,000 – $120,000,000 $75,000,000   Universal
12/20/2019 Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker $185,000,000 – $225,000,000 $200,000,000   $550,000,000 – $750,000,000 $680,000,000   Disney / Lucasfilm
12/20/2019 Bombshell (Wide Expansion) $5,000,000 – $10,000,000 $5,000,000   $30,000,000 – $45,000,000 $40,000,000   Lionsgate
12/25/2019 Little Women (2019) $16,000,000 – $26,000,000 $20,000,000   $80,000,000 – $120,000,000 $100,000,000   Sony / Columbia
12/25/2019 Spies in Disguise $13,000,000 – $23,000,000 $16,000,000   $70,000,000 – $110,000,000 $80,000,000   Fox / Blue Sky
12/25/2019 Uncut Gems   n/a     n/a   A24
1/3/2020 The Grudge (2020) $10,000,000 – $20,000,000 $14,000,000   $25,000,000 – $45,000,000 $32,000,000   Sony / Columbia
1/10/2020 1917 (Wide) $18,000,000 – $23,000,000 $21,000,000   $75,000,000 – $100,000,000 $82,000,000   Universal / DreamWorks
1/10/2020 The Informer $2,500,000 – $7,500,000 n/a   $7,000,000 – $15,000,000 n/a   Aviron
1/10/2020 Just Mercy (Wide) $13,000,000 – $18,000,000 $14,000,000   $50,000,000 – $70,000,000 $59,000,000   Warner Bros.
1/10/2020 Like a Boss $15,000,000 – $20,000,000 $17,000,000   $45,000,000 – $60,000,000 $51,000,000   Paramount
1/10/2020 My Spy $7,000,000 – $12,000,000 $7,500,000   $20,000,000 – $30,000,000 $21,000,000   STX
1/10/2020 Underwater $5,000,000 – $10,000,000 $6,500,000   $12,000,000 – $25,000,000 $18,000,000   Fox
1/17/2020 Bad Boys for Life $21,000,000 – $31,000,000 $25,000,000   $55,000,000 – $75,000,000 $64,000,000   Sony / Columbia
1/17/2020 Dolittle $30,000,000 – $50,000,000 $40,000,000   $120,000,000 – $170,000,000 $145,000,000   Universal
1/24/2020 The Gentlemen $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 $12,000,000 NEW $30,000,000 – $50,000,000 $38,000,000 NEW STX
1/24/2020 The Last Full Measure   n/a     n/a   Roadside Attractions
1/24/2020 Run   n/a     n/a   Lionsgate / Summit
1/24/2020 The Turning $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 $14,000,000 NEW $25,000,000 – $40,000,000 $38,000,000 NEW Universal

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Alex Edghill contributed to this report

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