Long Range Tracking: ‘Venom’ Revisited — Could It Set A New October Record?

Following a deeper dive into new data, we’re revisiting initial forecasts for Venom in a rare mid-week update.

Opening Weekend Range: $55 – 85 million (revised from $30 – 50 million)

In its first week of tracking on our data service Trailer Impact, the film has registered very encouraging 91 percent Average Positive Interest and 14 percent Recall scores. Historical comparisons are limited at this time, making this an experimental component of current modeling scenarios, but it’s enough to push our initial forecasts into the realm of a potential (perhaps likely) October record opening weekend — a mark currently held by Gravity ($55.8 million).

The film’s second trailer — released in late July — is driving a stronger stream of online discussion among a passionate fan base than the first teaser indicated earlier this year. We continue to believe Tom Hardy’s presence is a major advantage for the film, while also remaining cautious in regard to Twitter sentiment and the potential for front-loading due to the character’s less family-friendly roots than other comic book adaptations.

For example, while overall mentions are well ahead of the same-point pace seen by Ant-Man and the WaspJustice LeagueLogan, Doctor Strange, and even Suicide Squad, the ratio of positive-to-negative comments registers significantly lower than each of those titles and matches more closely with the Fantastic Four reboot, according to Boxoffice Pro metrics.

Essentially, for each projection running highly optimistic scenarios that suggest Venom could break the October record or even have a shot at becoming the first film to ever crack a $100 million+ debut in the month, another model puts it in a far more conservative-to-cautious position.

With key comp titles running the gamut of potential outcomes right now, ranges will probably be more volatile than usual for the genre leading up to release — making critical reception and reactions from early fan screenings even more important.

Meanwhile, we continue to see optimistic early trends for A Star Is Born and have slightly increased our overall forecast into even more bullish territory.

Check back tomorrow for our regular long range report with new additions slated for release on October 12.

8-Week Tracking

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
8/24/2018 A.X.L. $1,750,000 $4,400,000 n/a Global Road
8/24/2018 The Happytime Murders $15,500,000 $40,500,000 3,000 STX
8/24/2018 Searching n/a n/a n/a Sony / Screen Gems
8/29/2018 Operation Finale $6,000,000 $19,000,000 2,300 MGM
8/31/2018 Kin $5,000,000 -9% $12,600,000 -9% 1,500 Lionsgate / Summit
8/31/2018 Ya Veremos n/a n/a 350 Pantelion
9/7/2018 God Bless the Broken Road $1,000,000 NEW $2,500,000 NEW Freestyle Releasing
9/7/2018 The Nun $40,000,000 $96,000,000 Warner Bros. / New Line
9/7/2018 Peppermint $12,000,000 $33,500,000 STX Entertainment
9/14/2018 The Predator (2018) $28,000,000 $65,000,000 Fox
9/14/2018 A Simple Favor $14,000,000 $40,000,000 Lionsgate
9/14/2018 Unbroken: Path to Redemption $2,000,000 $4,900,000 Pure Flix
9/14/2018 White Boy Rick $7,500,000 $24,000,000 Sony / Studio 8
9/21/2018 Fahrenheit 11/9 n/a n/a Briarcliff
9/21/2018 The House with a Clock In Its Walls $24,000,000 $79,000,000 Universal
9/21/2018 Life Itself n/a n/a Amazon Studios
9/28/2018 Hell Fest $9,500,000 $22,000,000 Lionsgate / CBS Films
9/28/2018 Little Women (2018) n/a n/a Pure Flix
9/28/2018 Night School (2018) $17,500,000 $55,000,000 Universal
9/28/2018 Smallfoot $23,000,000 $80,000,000 Warner Bros.
10/5/2018 A Star Is Born $30,000,000 $140,000,000 20% Warner Bros.
10/5/2018 Venom (2018) $65,000,000 63% $135,000,000 59% Sony / Columbia

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