Following a deeper dive into new data, we’re revisiting initial forecasts for Venom in a rare mid-week update.
Opening Weekend Range: $55 – 85 million (revised from $30 – 50 million)
In its first week of tracking on our data service Trailer Impact, the film has registered very encouraging 91 percent Average Positive Interest and 14 percent Recall scores. Historical comparisons are limited at this time, making this an experimental component of current modeling scenarios, but it’s enough to push our initial forecasts into the realm of a potential (perhaps likely) October record opening weekend — a mark currently held by Gravity ($55.8 million).
The film’s second trailer — released in late July — is driving a stronger stream of online discussion among a passionate fan base than the first teaser indicated earlier this year. We continue to believe Tom Hardy’s presence is a major advantage for the film, while also remaining cautious in regard to Twitter sentiment and the potential for front-loading due to the character’s less family-friendly roots than other comic book adaptations.
For example, while overall mentions are well ahead of the same-point pace seen by Ant-Man and the Wasp, Justice League, Logan, Doctor Strange, and even Suicide Squad, the ratio of positive-to-negative comments registers significantly lower than each of those titles and matches more closely with the Fantastic Four reboot, according to Boxoffice Pro metrics.
Essentially, for each projection running highly optimistic scenarios that suggest Venom could break the October record or even have a shot at becoming the first film to ever crack a $100 million+ debut in the month, another model puts it in a far more conservative-to-cautious position.
With key comp titles running the gamut of potential outcomes right now, ranges will probably be more volatile than usual for the genre leading up to release — making critical reception and reactions from early fan screenings even more important.
Meanwhile, we continue to see optimistic early trends for A Star Is Born and have slightly increased our overall forecast into even more bullish territory.
Check back tomorrow for our regular long range report with new additions slated for release on October 12.
|Release Date||Title||3-Day Wide Opening||% Chg from Last Week||Domestic Total||% Chg from Last Week||Estimated Location Count||Distributor|
|8/24/2018||The Happytime Murders||$15,500,000||$40,500,000||3,000||STX|
|8/24/2018||Searching||n/a||n/a||n/a||Sony / Screen Gems|
|8/31/2018||Kin||$5,000,000||-9%||$12,600,000||-9%||1,500||Lionsgate / Summit|
|9/7/2018||God Bless the Broken Road||$1,000,000||NEW||$2,500,000||NEW||Freestyle Releasing|
|9/7/2018||The Nun||$40,000,000||$96,000,000||Warner Bros. / New Line|
|9/14/2018||The Predator (2018)||$28,000,000||$65,000,000||Fox|
|9/14/2018||A Simple Favor||$14,000,000||$40,000,000||Lionsgate|
|9/14/2018||Unbroken: Path to Redemption||$2,000,000||$4,900,000||Pure Flix|
|9/14/2018||White Boy Rick||$7,500,000||$24,000,000||Sony / Studio 8|
|9/21/2018||The House with a Clock In Its Walls||$24,000,000||$79,000,000||Universal|
|9/21/2018||Life Itself||n/a||n/a||Amazon Studios|
|9/28/2018||Hell Fest||$9,500,000||$22,000,000||Lionsgate / CBS Films|
|9/28/2018||Little Women (2018)||n/a||n/a||Pure Flix|
|9/28/2018||Night School (2018)||$17,500,000||$55,000,000||Universal|
|10/5/2018||A Star Is Born||$30,000,000||$140,000,000||20%||Warner Bros.|
|10/5/2018||Venom (2018)||$65,000,000||63%||$135,000,000||59%||Sony / Columbia|
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