Studio Weekend Estimates: ‘Split’ Splits the Competition w/ $26.3M; ‘A Dog’s Purpose’ Is Man’s Second-Best Friend w/ $18.4M; ‘Resident Evil: The Final Chapter’ Takes In $13.8M

Universal claimed both the top two spots at the box office this weekend, as Split led for the second consecutive frame with an estimated $26.3 million. The horror thriller declined an estimated 34.3 percent from its impressive debut last weekend, a fantastic hold for the horror genre which typically experiences the steepest drops of any genre. By comparison, this month’s other horror release The Bye Bye Man dropped 74.6 percent in its second weekend, director M. Night Shyamalan’s previous horror The Visit fell 54.5 percent, and the biggest horror release of last year The Conjuring 2 declined 63.2 percent.

Split has now earned $78.0 million total, on a production budget estimated at under $10 million. The film now seems highly likely to reach $100 million, a very rare status indeed for a non-sequel horror film, as the last time a non-sequel horror reached nine digits was The Conjuring in summer 2013. It’s currently running 9.7 percent ahead of the $71.0 million of The Conjuring 2 through two weekends, and has already surged 19.6 percent above the final $65.2 million total of The Visit.

Now the question becomes whether Split can lead next weekend for a third consecutive time? It’s certainly possible. If Split declines by a similar percentage next weekend as it did next weekend, give or take, it should earn around the “mid-teens millions.” The two new debuts will be fellow horror release Rings and sci-fi drama The Space Between Us, of which current tracking indicates only the former stands a real shot at taking first place. It could be close, but Split might just pull off the rare three-peat, which virtually nobody predicted prior to its release.

In second place this weekend was Universal’s family drama A Dog’s Purpose with an estimated $18.4 million. The film managed to largely sidestep its controversy surrounding last week’s leaked video purporting to show animal abuse on set, with a weekend total about in line with pre-release estimates anyway. The film opened about in line with several other recent dog-themed films of recent years, starting ahead of the $12.1 million opening of 2005’s Max while starting slightly below the inflation-adjusted opening of 2009’s Hotel for Dogs.

Purpose earned an “A” CinemaScore from an audience that was 56 percent female and 32 percent under age 13. It started with an estimated $5.3 million on Friday, improved an estimated 45.2 percent on Saturday to $7.7 million, and is projected to decline 29.8 percent on Sunday to $5.4 million. This places its opening weekend to Friday ratio at an estimated 3.47 to 1.

Sony’s sci-fi action sequel Resident Evil: The Final Chapter debuted in fourth place with an estimated $13.8 million, by far the lowest opening weekend among the six films in the Resident Evil series. Adjusted for inflation, the next-lowest opening had been held by previous installment Resident Evil: Retribution in 2012, but even that took in $21.0 million.

With these domestic numbers, a sequel would have been unlikely enough that it may have been “the final chapter” even if that phrase hadn’t appeared in the title. (Although the film has been doing much better overseas, especially in Japan.) Unless the film defies the odds and experiences a strong hold, this installment seems highly likely to become the lowest grossing one in the franchise, which adjusted for inflation is currently Retribution with about $47.0 million in today’s dollars.

The Final Chapter started with an estimated $5.1 million on Friday, improved a negligible amount to an estimated $5.15 million on Saturday, and is projected to decline 30.0 percent on Sunday to $3.6 million. This places its opening weekend to Friday ratio at an estimated 2.71 to 1.

Following its record-tying 14 Academy Award nominations, La La Land expanded to its highest theater count to date with 3,136 theaters, a 68.1 percent expansion above its previous high of 1,865 theaters. In the process, it notches fifth place with an estimated $12.0 million. The film also surpassed the $100 million mark on Saturday. Expect strong holds for the next month on amazing word of mouth and the film’s Oscar buzz between now and the actual ceremony between now and late February.

Coming in a projected 10th place is Weinstein Company’s comedy-drama Gold with an estimated $3.4 million. The Matthew McConaughey vehicle wasn’t expected to do great at the box office anyway, but its $1,602 per-screen average was quite a bit less than the $3,053 that Weinstein’s fellow comedy-drama The Founder started with per-screen just last weekend. In fact, Gold‘s opening weekend is currently projected at just 1.9 percent above The Founder despite playing on nearly double the number of theaters. (In fact, it’s possible Gold could even end up behind Founder‘s opening once weekend actuals are finalized on Monday.)

The top 10 films this weekend earned an estimated cumulative $111.74 million. That’s 7.0 percent behind the $120.21 million earned by the top 10 films last weekend, and 16.7 percent above the $95.73 million earned by the top 10 films on this weekend last year, when The Revenant rose to the top on its third weekend of wide release with $16.0 million.

Limited Releases:

In the first weekend following Oscar nominations, several nominated films saw notable increases at the box office. Weinstein Company’s Lion was up 35.0 percent to $2.3 million. Roadside Attractions’ Manchester by the Sea improved more than double to $2.0 million. A24’s Moonlight more than doubled as well, to $1.5 million. Paramount’s Fences was up 16.0 percent to $1.4 million. Paramount’s Arrival, after having been nearly out of theaters, re-opened on more than 1,000 additional screens for $1.4 million. Fox Searchlight’s Jackie improved 75.2 percent to $665 thousand.

Overseas Update:

Despite starting in fourth place domestically, Resident Evil: The Final Chapter led the overseas box office with an estimated $28.3 million weekend. That was substantially over the mere $2.1 million it made overseas the weekend before expanding into 44 total markets for this time around. The film has now earned $64.5 million overseas and $78.4 million globally.

La La Land attains its best overseas weekend yet with an estimated $23.5 million, up 36.9 percent, in 73 markets. The film has now earned $117.1 million overseas and $223.6 million globally, led by $25.6 million in the United Kingdom, $22.3 million in South Korea, and $11.3 million in Australia.

Universal’s Sing, though starting to fade a bit domestically with a seventh place finish after fourth place the weekend prior, is still holding strong overseas with an estimated $23.3 million weekend in 61 markets. That’s up more than double its $9.3 million overseas weekend last frame, an improvement due largely to its first place debuts of $13.0 million in the United Kingdom and $4.9 million in France.

Studio Weekend Estimates for Friday, January 27 – Sunday, January 29, 2017:

WIDE (1000+)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Split $26,300,000 -34% 3,199 161 $8,221 $78,030,090 2 Universal
2 A Dog’s Purpose $18,400,000 3,058 $6,017 $18,400,000 1 Universal
3 Hidden Figures $14,000,000 -11% 3,351 -65 $4,178 $104,021,694 6 Fox
4 Resident Evil: The Final Chapter $13,850,000 3,104 $4,462 $13,850,000 1 Sony / Screen Gems
5 La La Land $12,050,000 43% 3,136 1271 $3,842 $106,509,372 8 Lionsgate / Summit
6 xXx: The Return of Xander Cage $8,250,000 -59% 3,651 0 $2,260 $33,487,750 2 Paramount
7 Sing (2016) $6,200,000 -31% 2,702 -491 $2,295 $257,391,375 6 Universal
8 Rogue One: A Star Wars Story $5,124,000 -29% 2,049 -554 $2,501 $520,049,573 7 Disney
9 Monster Trucks $4,100,000 -42% 2,496 -623 $1,643 $28,135,147 3 Paramount
10 Gold (2016) $3,470,000 2,166 $1,602 $3,470,000 1 The Weinstein Company / Dimension
11 Patriots Day $2,850,000 -50% 1,847 -1273 $1,543 $28,381,241 6 CBS Films / Lionsgate
12 The Founder $2,676,000 -21% 1,115 0 $2,400 $7,503,067 2 Weinstein Company
13 Moana $2,425,000 -10% 1,894 598 $1,280 $240,115,596 10 Disney
14 Manchester By the Sea $2,026,740 114% 1,168 625 $1,735 $41,540,879 11 Roadside / Amazon
15 Sleepless $1,774,675 -49% 1,055 -748 $1,682 $17,838,170 3 Open Road
16 Moonlight (2016) $1,538,976 159% 1,104 615 $1,394 $17,764,355 15 A24
17 Arrival $1,470,000 357% 1,221 1041 $1,204 $97,325,199 12 Paramount
18 The Bye Bye Man $1,140,000 -67% 1,127 -1093 $1,012 $21,838,650 3 STX Entertainment

LIMITED (100 — 999)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Lion $2,383,000 35% 575 0 $4,144 $19,752,872 10 Weinstein Company
2 Raees $1,854,000 265 $6,996 $2,425,000 1 Zee Studios
3 Fences $1,410,000 16% 880 187 $1,602 $50,789,609 7 Paramount
4 Un Padre No Tan Padre $1,025,000 312 $3,285 $1,025,000 1 Lionsgate / Pantelion Films.
5 Passengers $1,000,000 -55% 625 -931 $1,600 $96,291,217 6 Sony / Columbia
6 20th Century Women $938,340 -32% 650 0 $1,444 $3,966,843 5 A24
7 Jackie $665,000 75% 508 269 $1,309 $12,183,848 9 Fox Searchlight
8 Silence $555,000 -52% 316 -1264 $1,756 $6,349,378 6 Paramount
9 The Resurrection of Gavin Stone $471,355 -61% 879 -11 $536 $2,048,408 2 BH Tilt
10 Hacksaw Ridge $415,000 431% 502 377 $827 $65,948,329 13 Lionsgate
11 Why Him? $350,000 -69% 365 -669 $959 $58,728,017 6 Fox
12 Trolls $285,000 -15% 231 -12 $1,234 $152,737,834 13 Fox / DreamWorks Animation
13 Assassin’s Creed $195,000 -42% 210 -113 $929 $54,129,763 6 Fox
14 Elle (2016) $128,970 17% 128 -15 $1,008 $1,789,203 12 Sony Pictures Classics
15 Doctor Strange $102,000 -24% 104 -28 $981 $231,633,133 13 Disney

PLATFORM (1 — 99)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Buddies in India $190,000 55 $3,455 $190,000 1 China Lion Entertainment
2 Paterson $173,438 33% 51 13 $3,401 $790,803 5 Bleecker Street
3 Julieta $126,417 38% 48 8 $2,634 $844,572 6 Sony Pictures Classics
4 Kung Fu Yoga $112,300 14 $8,021 $112,300 1 Well Go USA
5 Toni Erdmann $102,294 278% 20 14 $5,115 $380,897 6 Sony Pictures Classics
6 The Eagle Huntress $72,513 8% 91 17 $797 $2,854,970 13 Sony Pictures Classics
7 The Salesman $71,071 3 $23,690 $71,071 1 Cohen Media Group
8 Neruda $69,405 52% 28 5 $2,479 $438,540 7 The Orchard
9 The Red Turtle $65,955 214% 15 12 $4,397 $115,278 2 Sony Pictures Classics
10 Saving Banksy $10,849 -29% 4 -1 $2,712 $31,146 3 Parade Deck Films
11 Worlds Apart $3,600 -70% 1 -1 $3,600 $45,993 3 Cinema Libre Studio
12 The Sunshine Makers $3,200 71% 7 6 $457 $5,878 2 FilmRise

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