Early Weekend Estimates: ‘Angry Birds’ Flies High ($39M); ‘Civil War’ ($32.5M) Bests ‘Neighbors 2’ ($21M); ‘The Nice Guys’ Eyes $11.6M

Saturday Update: Sony reports this morning that The Angry Birds Movie soared to an estimated $11.0 million opening day on Friday. That’s a strong start for the popular video game adaptation, landing within the realm of Rio 2‘s $12.0 million first day back in April 2014. The film reportedly earned an “A” CinemaScore, and as the first major animated release since Zootopia back in March, the flick is poised to generate healthy legs in the coming weeks as families with young kids drive early summer business. We’re currently projecting Angry Birds to net an opening weekend of $39 million, which would put it squarely within pre-release expectations.

Universal’s Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising posted an opening day of $8.74 million yesterday, coming in 55 percent lower than the original’s $19.575 million first day and 34 percent below Ted 2‘s $13.3 million opening day last summer. While reviews have panned out decently relative to many comedy sequels (62 percent on Rotten Tomatoes), early word of mouth is decidedly underwhelming with a 57 percent Flixster score this morning. Boxoffice projects an opening weekend in the realm of $21.0 million.

Just behind in third place yesterday was Captain America: Civil War, off 56 percent from last Friday with $8.71 million and a 15-day cume of $322.98 million. That’s a slightly sharper decline than Avengers: Age of Ultron posted from its second-to-third Friday last year (53 percent). For its third weekend, we’re projecting a second place finish for Civil War with around $32.5 million.

Debuting in fourth place yesterday, The Nice Guys earned an estimated $3.88 million. While that falls short of our pre-release expectations, the film’s excellent reviews (90 percent) and strong early word of mouth (88 percent) suggest the film will enjoy great staying power in the weeks ahead as a counter-programming option for adults not interested in the bigger popcorn films of the early summer market. Boxoffice projects an opening weekend of $11.6 million.

Meanwhile, The Jungle Book capped off the top five yesterday with $2.734 million, off 33 percent from last Friday. With a domestic tally of $319.2 million after 36 days of play, we’re expecting a weekend total around $11.5 million.

See our chart below for early weekend estimates of all films reported, and check back on Sunday for a complete list of official weekend estimates from the studios.

WIDE (1000+)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 The Angry Birds Movie $39,000,000 3,932 $9,919 $39,000,000 1 Sony / Columbia
2 Captain America: Civil War $32,500,000 -55% 4,226 0 $7,690 $346,776,153 3 Disney
3 Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising $21,000,000 3,384 $6,206 $21,000,000 1 Universal
4 The Nice Guys $11,600,000 2,865 $4,049 $11,600,000 1 Warner Bros.
5 The Jungle Book (2016) $11,500,000 -33% 3,460 -510 $3,324 $327,980,565 6 Disney
6 Money Monster $6,300,000 -57% 3,104 0 $2,030 $26,323,647 2 Sony / TriStar
7 The Darkness $2,200,000 -56% 1,769 14 $1,244 $2,200,000 2 High Top / BH Tilt
8 Zootopia $1,700,000 -40% 1,377 -558 $1,235 $334,400,528 12 Disney
9 The Huntsman: Winter’s War $1,300,000 -51% 1,246 -1272 $1,043 $46,778,690 5 Universal
10 Mother’s Day (2016) $1,100,000 -67% 1,719 -1572 $640 $31,273,722 4 Open Road

LIMITED (100 — 999)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Barbershop: The Next Cut $865,000 -48% 744 -589 $1,163 $52,734,430 6 Warner Bros. / New Line
2 The Boss $670,000 -44% 672 -678 $997 $62,273,470 7 Universal
3 Keanu $525,000 -73% 707 -1413 $743 $20,008,350 4 Warner Bros. / New Line
4 My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 $370,000 -24% 365 -352 $1,014 $59,553,365 9 Universal
5 Sing Street $345,000 -44% 520 -5 $663 $2,484,745 6 Weinstein Company
6 A Bigger Splash $310,000 63% 128 102 $2,422 $759,773 3 Fox Searchlight
7 Deadpool $120,000 -40% 192 -70 $625 $362,718,174 15 Fox
8 10 Cloverfield Lane $115,000 -40% 176 -84 $653 $71,900,267 11 Paramount
9 The Divergent Series: Allegiant $114,000 34% 194 34 $588 $65,994,028 10 Lionsgate / Summit
10 Criminal (2016) $45,000 -70% 142 -204 $317 $45,000 6 Lionsgate / Summit

PLATFORM (1 — 99)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Compadres $66,000 -56% 82 -45 $805 $3,113,610 5 Lionsgate / Pantelion
2 Papa: Hemingway in Cuba $26,000 -63% 45 -33 $578 $1,094,027 4 Yari Film Group
3 Meet the Blacks $23,000 -43% 50 -13 $460 $9,050,679 8 Freestyle Releasing

Friday Update: Sources report that Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising hauled in an estimated $1.67 million from Thursday evening shows, a healthy start for the sequel to 2014’s original comedy hit. While that figure does come in 35 percent lower than its predecessor’s $2.56 million start two years ago, it’s not far shy from expectations. Generally favorable reviews for the sequel, as well as its naturally older (somewhat) audience when compared to other Seth Rogen-led films, could work to its favor over the course of the weekend.

The Angry Birds Movie scored an estimated $800,000 start last night. That’s double the take of Rio 2 and The LEGO Movie, each of which bowed to $400,000, but ultimately comparisons are slim with some schools around the country already out of session in mid-May. Still, we expect very solid results over the weekend.

Meanwhile, The Nice Guys started with $700,000 last night, a great start for the strongly reviewed crime-comedy. Again, comparisons are limited but that figure bests Money Monster‘s $600,000 Thursday launch last week. Nice Guys should play strongly with a similar adult audience as it aims to counter-program the more “typical” summer fare in the marketplace.

The aforementioned films — Neighbors 2 and Angry Birds — will be eyeing to unseat Captain America: Civil War from its first place throne this weekend, but the latter film will put up a fight for a third straight victory as it continues to enjoy healthy word of mouth.

We’ll update with official Friday estimates from the studios and initial weekend projections on Saturday morning.

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