1. Deadpool & Wolverine
Marvel Studios | Week 6
$15.2M Domestic 3-Day Weekend | $19.5M Projected 4-Day
$599.5M Domestic Cume | $1,257.9B Global Cume
The juggernaut that is Deadpool & Wolverine (not to be confused with the Juggernaut that’s IN Deadpool & Wolverine) continues unabated as the Marvel Studios megahit owns the Labor Day weekend with an estimated $15.2M 3-Day and $19.5M 4-Day. That’s a -17% drop from last frame, the lowest drop yet for the third Deadpool. This puts the film on the precipice of passing the $600M domestic milestone tomorrow, only the 16th overall title and the 6th MCU entry to do so. It is now the 16th all-time domestic grosser under Incredibles 2‘s $608.5M
On the overseas front the movie has now taken in $658.4M, having passed Oppenheimer ($646M) to become the 2nd highest grossing R-rated release of all-time internationally as well as the #10 MCU release ahead of Black Panther ($649M). The global cume stands at $1,257.9B, #7 for the MCU behind Black Panther ($1,334.1B) and #24 of all-time behind 2017’s Beauty and the Beast.
With Warner Bros.’ anticipated sequel Beetlejuice Beetlejuice now tracking for a $100M+ opening next weekend this will likely be Deadpool & Wolverine‘s last frame at the top, but it’s been an amazing run and a major return-to-form financially for the MCU after a lackluster 2023.
4. Reagan
ShowBiz Direct | NEW
$7.4M Domestic Opening 3-Day
The Dennis Quaid-led Reagan has surprised with a $7,400,720 million 3-Day take on 2,754 screens for a $2,687 Per Screen Average. The presidential biopic of conservative hero Ronald Reagan debuted at #4, though its PSA was actually higher than It Ends With Us at #3 ($2,091). We had this seemingly niche title topping out at $5M in our panel’s final forecast for the weekend, and the fact that it was #7 in terms of showtime marketshare means this is an over-performance to be sure. The supporting cast included Penelope Ann Miller, Robert Davi, Lesley-Anne Down, and Jon Voight.
Here’s how the estimated 3-Day looked…
- Thursday previews – $525K
- Friday – $2.7M
- Saturday – $2.4M
- Sunday – $2.3M
Critical to audience disparity on Reagan is enormous, earning 19% Rotten from 42 reviews but a huge 98% audience rating and an “A” CinemaScore, indicating conservatives marched lockstep on this one. Landing at #4 on the charts is a relative win for a movie that has been sitting on the shelf since completing filming in 2020. The biopic found release through upstart distributor ShowBiz Direct, whose mission statement “to fill the void left by traditional studios’ selective distribution processes” seems to have paid off during an election year.
9. Afraid
Sony | NEW
$3.7M Domestic Opening 3-Day | $4.475M Projected 4-Day
$6M Global Cume
Audiences clearly got scared away from Sony and Blumhouse’s Afraid, which cratered at $3.7M for the 3-Day and $4.475M for the projected 4-Day Labor Day holiday from 3,003 locations ($1,232 PSA). That’s far below even the lowest estimates from our prediction panel. This was the definition of an execution dependent concept, and reviews for the AI-themed horror programmer were in the toilet with 22% on Rotten Tomatoes. Add to that the 48% audience score along with C+ CinemaScore and it appears this one just did not work across the board.
Here’s how the estimated 4-Day looks…
- Friday – $1.315M
- Saturday – $1.23M
- Sunday – $1.155M
- Monday – $775K
This represents one of the lowest openings for a Blumhouse title in the company’s history, with the 2017 Bruce Lee biopic Birth of the Dragon (released via the BH Tilt sub-label) the next-lowest with $2.7M in around half the locations of Afraid. The only wide release film with major studio distribution from the company to perform poorer is 2015’s Jem and the Holograms with $1.3M at 2,417 locations. For more recent Blumhouse comps from this year you have Imaginary ($9.9M opening/$28M domestic) and Night Swim ($11.7M opening/$32.4M), neither of which are considered up-to-par performances.
The overseas rollout this weekend was similarly anemic with $2.3 million on 2,475+ screens in 19 select markets for a global 3-Day cume of $6M.
Other Notable Performances
20th Century Studios’ Alien: Romulus sits at #2 in its third frame for the holiday weekend with an estimated $9.3M for the 3-Day and $11.5M 4-Day in 3,120 locations. The domestic cume now sits at $88.8M. It passed Aliens‘ $85.1M to become the #2 movie in the 45-year-old franchise behind 2012’s Prometheus ($126.4M). The global cume now sits at $283.5M, also behind Prometheus ($400.4M). It continues to over-perform in China specifically with $9M for the weekend as well as surpassing the domestic cume with $92.7M total for the territory, to-date about 32.6% of the film’s WW gross.
Universal’s Despicable Me 4 added 107 screens in anticipation of end-of-summer demand to land at #8 with $4.08M for the 3-Day, taking its domestic cume to $354.1M. It now stands as the #3 film in the franchise stateside and could squeak by Despicable Me 2‘s $368M if Universal keeps it in circulation, though that’s not very likely since it is already available at home digitally. Globally it has crossed the $900M threshold with $913.7M, still sitting at #5 for the series behind Minions: The Rise of Gru‘s $937.4M.
Meanwhile Pixar added +1,100 screens to Inside Out 2 in its 12th frame to maintain #10 chart standing with $2.77M from 2,660 locations ($4M projected 4-Day) for a domestic cume of $650.1M and a global of $1,666.2B. It is now the #9 all-time industry film globally after passing 2019’s The Lion King‘s $1,663B.
Lionsgate’s Los Angeles riots drama 1992 headlined by Fast franchise vets Tyrese Gibson and Scott Eastwood opened with $1.365M on 875 screens to land outside the Top 10. The film had a $1,560 PSA, and although it’s not a wide release it is the lowest major opening for Gibson under 2013’s Black Nativity with $3,669,530 million. His lifetime opening average is around $52M. This represents the third belly flop for the studio this month after The Crow and Borderlands, though 1992 had an “A-” CinemaScore.
Sunday’s Studio Weekend Estimates | Weekend 35 – 2024
Total 3-Day Domestic Estimates: $80,810,022M | (-9.5% vs 2023)
| Title | Weekend Estimate | % Change | Locations | Location Change | PSA | Domestic Total | Week | Distributor |
| Deadpool & Wolverine | $15,184,000 | -17% | 3,630 | -210 | $4,183 | $599,525,117 | 6 | Walt Disney |
| Alien: Romulus | $9,324,000 | -43% | 3,120 | -795 | $2,988 | $88,764,631 | 3 | 20th Century… |
| It Ends With Us | $7,425,000 | -36% | 3,551 | -288 | $2,091 | $133,719,000 | 4 | Sony Pictures |
| Reagan | $7,400,720 | 2,754 | $2,687 | $7,400,720 | 1 | ShowBiz Direct | ||
| Twisters | $7,160,000 | 17% | 3,005 | -201 | $2,383 | $258,032,000 | 7 | Universal |
| Blink Twice | $4,687,000 | -36% | 3,067 | n/c | $1,528 | $15,340,550 | 2 | Amazon MGM S… |
| The Forge | $4,600,000 | 1,921 | $2,395 | $14,313,000 | 2 | Sony Pictures | ||
| Despicable Me 4 | $4,080,000 | -4% | 2,698 | 107 | $1,512 | $354,110,000 | 9 | Universal |
| Afraid | $3,700,000 | 3,003 | $1,232 | $3,700,000 | 1 | Sony Pictures | ||
| Inside Out 2 | $2,770,000 | 36% | 2,660 | 1,100 | $1,041 | $650,009,541 | 12 | Walt Disney |
| The Crow | $1,800,000 | -61% | 2,752 | n/c | $654 | $8,131,351 | 2 | Lionsgate |
| 1992 | $1,365,000 | 875 | $1,560 | $1,365,000 | 1 | Lionsgate | ||
| Trap | $750,000 | -55% | 732 | -872 | $1,025 | $39,886,000 | 5 | Warner Bros. |
| Shaun of the Dead | $600,000 | 133 | $4,511 | $14,143,000 | 1,041 | Focus Features | ||
| Strange Darling | $518,748 | -55% | 800 | -335 | $648 | $2,363,252 | 2 | Magenta Ligh… |
| Slingshot | $485,282 | 845 | $574 | $485,282 | 1 | Bleecker Street | ||
| Dìdi (弟弟) | $326,000 | -31% | 234 | -201 | $1,393 | $4,211,000 | 6 | Focus Features |
| Harold and the Purple Crayon | $235,000 | 302 | $778 | $17,279,000 | 5 | Sony Pictures | ||
| Sing Sing | $213,501 | -11% | 191 | n/c | $1,118 | $1,966,942 | 8 | A24 |
| Longlegs | $160,020 | -48% | 168 | -207 | $953 | $73,867,958 | 8 | Neon |
| CatVideoFest 2024 | $85,225 | 88% | 38 | n/c | $2,243 | $697,005 | 5 | Oscilloscope… |
| Good One | $78,666 | 86% | 93 | 61 | $846 | $244,286 | 4 | Metrograph P… |
| Borderlands | $69,000 | -86% | 179 | -968 | $385 | $15,441,525 | 4 | Lionsgate |
| Cuckoo | $49,170 | -70% | 55 | -245 | $894 | $6,190,230 | 4 | Neon |
| Tokyo Cowboy | $21,010 | 2 | $10,505 | $21,010 | 1 | Purdie Distr… | ||
| Seeking Mavis Beacon | $9,062 | 1 | $9,062 | $9,062 | 1 | Neon | ||
| Mountains | $7,301 | -36% | 10 | 5 | $730 | $31,247 | 3 | Music Box Films |
Share this post