Following back-to-back weekends of debuts by key spring releases on (and over) the high end of expectations, the box office field continues to gain more variety with another new wide release coming out this week.
Arthur the King
Lionsgate
March 15, 2024 (WIDE)
Opening Weekend Range: $10M-$15M
WEEKEND PROS:
- Mark Wahlberg’s headlining presence should be beneficiary to Arthur the King, which is courting fans of animal films, inspirational stories, and family audiences with older children. Pre-sales are respectable so far with a pace ahead of last year’s Champions and just slightly off the pace of 2022’s Dog entering the week. A 90-minute runtime could also be conducive to audience appeal.
- Following a $58 million domestic start, Kung Fu Panda 4 will look to build on its expectation-exceeding performance with the beginning of a leggy run that sees very little competition for young audiences until late May’s Garfield movie.
- Likewise, Dune: Part Two will continue to benefit from stellar reception and robust PLF demand as its third frame looks to be generally unchallenged among core audiences. Cabrini should also remain prominent following its sleeper opening.
WEEKEND CONS:
- While Arthur the King probably appeals to families with older kids, it will still have some degree of crossover competition with the Panda sequel.
- Many potential moviegoers are sensitive to the portrayal of animals in dramatic and traumatic situations. Early word of mouth will be key for Arthur as marketing has not addressed whether the film will portray the subject’s passing in the way 2022’s Dog made well known in advance of release that “the dog doesn’t die.”
Current projection ranges call for an 8% increase from the comparable weekend’s top ten aggregate of $87.1 million in 2023 and a 26% decrease from 2019’s $126.4 million during the same calendar frames.
| Film | Studio | 3-Day Weekend Forecast | Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, March 17 | 3-Day % Change from Last Wknd |
| Kung Fu Panda 4 | Universal Pictures | $32,900,000 | $109,200,000 | -43% |
| Dune: Part Two | Warner Bros. Pictures | $29,700,000 | $205,400,000 | -36% |
| Arthur the King | Lionsgate | $12,000,000 | $12,000,000 | NEW |
| Imaginary | Lionsgate | $5,400,000 | $18,800,000 | -46% |
| Cabrini | Angel Studios | $4,000,000 | $14,100,000 | -44% |
All forecasts are subject to revision/finalization before the first confirmation of opening previews or Friday estimates from studios or official sources.
Theater counts are either studio estimates OR unofficial projections if preceded by “~”.
The above table does not necessarily represent exact ranking as some studios do not finalize weekend location counts and/or an intent to report box office returns prior to publishing.
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