Weekend Box Office Forecast: Bad Boys for Life Eyes 3rd #1 Finish; The Rhythm Section and Gretel & Hansel Debut on Super Bowl Weekend

Another January ends, which means another Super Bowl is upon us and moviegoing will see a significant slowdown in North America as folks prepare to watch the big game on Sunday.

Thankfully, January has already provided two breakouts in the form of Bad Boys for Life and 1917‘s wide expansion, both of which will continue anchoring the market (the former shooting for its third straight #1 finish). Dolittle will also lend some weight with a likely top three finish amid no fresh competition for family viewers.

Daring to enter wide release this weekend, Paramount’s The Rhythm Section will hope to bring out Blake Lively fans (not to mention fans of Mark Burnell’s source novels). Unfortunately, pre-release tracking metrics have stalled in recent days after showing signs of potentially cracking a $10 million+ debut similar to the likes of Peppermint and Red Sparrow. Our most current models suggest a more reserved debut could be in store this weekend, though, with mixed reviews and a minimal marketing push not helping matters.

Meanwhile, United Artists Releasing will drop Gretel & Hansel this weekend. In its favor, the PG-13 rating and less-than-90-minute run time could draw young female viewers early in the weekend. On the less optimistic side, horror/thriller releases haven’t fared well so far this year — with the glut of The Grudge, Underwater, and last week’s The Turning arguably diminishing demand for another one so soon. Our internal metrics for Gretel are comparable to the latter two titles, as well as Pride and Prejudice and Zombies, which also opened over Super Bowl weekend in 2016.

Opening Weekend Ranges

  • Gretel & Hansel ($3 – 8 million)
  • The Rhythm Section ($4 – 9 million)

Top 10 vs. Last Year

Boxoffice projects this weekend’s top ten films will increase approximately 23 to 28 percent from the same weekend one year ago, which was also Super Bowl weekend. At the time, Glass again led the market as Miss Bala debuted among a top ten aggregate that generated $52.1 million.

Weekend Forecast

Film Distributor 3-Day Weekend Forecast Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, February 2 % Change from Last Wknd
Bad Boys for Life Sony / Columbia $19,000,000 $148,000,000 -44%
1917 Universal $8,800,000 $117,600,000 -45%
Dolittle Universal $7,800,000 $55,000,000 -36%
The Rhythm Section Paramount $6,000,000 $6,000,000 NEW
Gretel & Hansel United Artists Releasing $5,300,000 $5,300,000 NEW
Jumanji: The Next Level Sony / Columbia $5,200,000 $290,300,000 -32%
The Gentlemen STX $4,800,000 $18,700,000 -55%
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Disney / Lucasfilm $3,200,000 $507,000,000 -43%
Little Women (2019) Sony / Columbia $3,100,000 $98,900,000 -33%
The Turning Universal $2,400,000 $11,000,000 -65%

Forecasts subject to change as location counts are finalized before Friday

The chart above excludes releases and potential expansions from limited and platform films

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