As summer rolls to a close, this weekend will be one of the quietest we’ve had for some time, with the market leaning mostly on the strength of holdover business while Universal debuts The Last Voyage of the Demeter.
The Last Voyage of the Demeter
August 11, 2023 (WIDE)
Opening Weekend Range: $6M-$11M
PROS and CONS:
- Barbie will extend its reign to four weekends atop the domestic box office as it comes off a $53 million third frame. The $1 billion-dollar global earner will also look to cross the $500 million domestic barrier before this weekend’s end as it chases the $574.2 million earned by The Super Mario Bros. Movie, currently the top grosser of 2023.
- After last weekend’s brief reprieve from the number two spot—Meg 2‘s debut pushed it down to third place—Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer should reclaim second place as it continues to display the kind of holding power typical of the filmmaker’s past releases. Even before its fourth frame is up, the pic is set to become the fourth of Nolan’s career to cross $250 million domestically after The Dark Knight, Inception, and The Dark Knight Rises.
- Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem should begin settling into a leggy haul, with strong reviews (96 percent on Rotten Tomatoes) and audience scores (92 percent) carrying the franchise revival to a long family-driven runway.
- Meg 2: The Trench currently boasts a 72 percent audience score, which would be a concern for most films… but not so much here, as the first Meg owns a far lower 43 percent. The sequel faces minimal competition from the weekend’s new opener and should continue to benefit from double-header screenings with Barbie at various drive-in locations.
- Meanwhile, The Last Voyage of the Demeter may be fighting for a debut in the top five this weekend. Pre-sale trends are comparable to last August’s Beast and The Invitation. Tracking is strongest among men under 35, while its R rating and period setting offset other benefits offered by the Dracula-inspired narrative and appeal to horror fans.
Current projection ranges call for a 30% to 35% decrease from last weekend’s $172.9 million top ten aggregate.
|Film||Studio||3-Day Weekend Forecast||Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, August 13||Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed)||3-Day % Change from Last Wknd|
|Barbie||Warner Bros. Pictures||$35,800,000||$529,700,000||~4,000||-32%|
|Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem||Paramount Pictures||$17,500,000||$76,400,000||~3,513||-38%|
|Meg 2: The Trench||Warner Bros. Pictures||$13,300,000||$55,000,000||~3,503||-56%|
|The Last Voyage of the Demeter||Universal Pictures||$8,800,000||$8,800,000||~2,700||NEW|
|Haunted Mansion||Walt Disney Pictures||$6,200,000||$53,700,000||~3,200||-33%|
|Sound of Freedom||Angel Studios||$5,100,000||$173,300,000||~2,800||-33%|
|Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One||Paramount Pictures||$4,900,000||$160,200,000||~2,300||-26%|
|Talk to Me||A24||$4,100,000||$29,900,000||~2,200||-35%|
|Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny||Disney / Lucasfilm||$1,000,000||$172,800,000||~750||-37%|
All forecasts are subject to revision/finalization before the first confirmation of opening previews or Friday estimates from studios or official sources.
Theater counts are either studio estimates OR unofficial projections if preceded by “~”.
The above table does not necessarily represent the top ten as some studios do not finalize weekend location counts and/or an intent to report box office returns prior to publishing.