Weekend Box Office Forecast: BOB MARLEY: ONE LOVE, MADAME WEB, and THE CHOSEN: SEASON 4 EPISODES 4 – 6 Open for Long Holiday Frame

Courtesy Paramount Pictures; © 2023 CTMG, Inc. All Rights Reserved. , courtesy Sony PIctures

After Super Bowl weekend delivered one of the worst performing frames since the pandemic, drawing just over a combined $37 million during the Friday through Sunday window, major studio releases return for a much needed box office boost over Valentines and Presidents Days.

Bob Marley: One Love

Paramount Pictures

February 14, 2024 (WIDE)

6-Day Opening Weekend Range: $30M-$40M

WEEKEND PROS:

  • Bob Marley: One Love has surged in pre-sales during recent weeks, particularly on Valentine’s Day itself, as the biopic aims to leverage its iconic subject and his optimistic values on the biggest date night of the year and into the Presidents Day four-day frame.
  • Madame Web is similarly aiming for long weekend appeal with a female-driven cast headlined by Dakota Johnson and Sydney Sweeney, the latter a driving force behind Anyone But You‘s continued success. This sequel’s tie into the Spider-Man universe could attract some die-hard comic fans.
  • Fathom Events returns with the next trio of episodes for season four of The Chosen just two weeks after the initial set debuted. Pre-sales are mostly in line with those of the recent season premiere and past theatrical performances by the series.

Madame Web

Sony & Columbia Pictures

February 14, 2024 (WIDE)

6-Day Opening Weekend Range: $18M-$28M

WEEKEND CONS:

  • Unfortunately, as of the time of this writing reviews for Bob Marley: One Love are not living up to expectations, as the film sits around 39 percent approval from 46 Rotten Tomatoes reviews. Pre-sales are also somewhat front-loaded to Valentine’s Day, though the calendar alignment could be skewing those models too conservatively with regard to weekend audience retention.
  • Even worse, Madame Web claims just a 19 percent critics’ score from 47 submissions on the review aggregation site. That’s a concerning trend for a film that has already struggled to overcome negative social media perception, with users generating memes that create high awareness but low interest in the wake of recent comic book adaptation under-performers.
  • Despite the influx of new content, poor reviews could hold back at least one (if not both) films depending on how word of mouth shakes out. That’s another unfortunate development for a theatrical market that has endured one of the worst non-pandemic quarters in quite some time thanks to a lack of event-level holdovers from the holidays or January.

The Chosen: Season 4 Episodes 4 – 6

Fathom Events

February 15, 2024 (WIDE)

5-Day Opening Weekend Range: $5M-$9M

Current projection ranges call for a 60% decrease from the comparable weekend’s top ten aggregate of $138.7 million in 2023 and a 47% decrease from 2019’s $105.2 million during the same calendar frames.

Film Studio 3-Day Weekend Forecast Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, February 18 3-Day % Change from Last Wknd 4-Day Weekend Forecast Projected Domestic Total through Monday, February 19
Bob Marley: One Love Paramount Pictures $19,600,000 $32,100,000 NEW $22,800,000 $35,300,000
Madame Web Sony & Columbia Pictures $14,000,000 $20,300,000 NEW $16,300,000 $22,600,000
The Chosen: Season 4 Episodes 4 – 6 Fathom Events $4,800,000 $5,900,000 NEW $5,600,000 $6,700,000
Argylle Universal Pictures $3,900,000 $35,400,000 -38% $4,500,000 $36,100,000
Migration Universal Pictures & Illumination $3,000,000 $114,200,000 2% $4,000,000 $115,200,000
Wonka Warner Bros. Pictures $2,700,000 $209,100,000 -12% $3,400,000 $209,800,000
The Beekeeper MGM $2,600,000 $59,100,000 -24% $3,100,000 $59,600,000
Anyone But You Sony & Columbia Pictures $2,200,000 $84,000,000 -17% $2,500,000 $84,300,000
Lisa Frankenstein Focus Features $2,000,000 $7,800,000 -46% $2,200,000 $8,000,000
Mean Girls (2023) Paramount Pictures $1,200,000 $71,300,000 -38% $1,400,000 $71,400,000

All forecasts are subject to revision/finalization before the first confirmation of opening previews or Friday estimates from studios or official sources.

Theater counts are either studio estimates OR unofficial projections if preceded by “~”.

The above table does not necessarily represent exact ranking as some studios do not finalize weekend location counts and/or an intent to report box office returns prior to publishing.

Courtesy Paramount Pictures; © 2023 CTMG, Inc. All Rights Reserved. , courtesy Sony PIctures
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