Weekend Box Office Forecast: Godzilla vs. Kong Will Cruise to a Three-peat Absent New Wide Releases

Photo Credits: Warner Bros. ("Godzilla vs. Kong")

Coming off the best opening and sophomore frames of any film released domestically during the pandemic so far, Warner Bros. and Legendary’s Godzilla vs. Kong is poised to easily repeat atop the box office for a third time.

The film slid nearly 57 percent last weekend as it came off the Easter frame and some fan-driven front-loading, landing on the lower end of expectations in its sophomore performance. Even without reported dailies from the studio this week, there’s no reason the film shouldn’t be headed toward a pandemic-best third weekend that would top Tenet‘s $4.7 million last September.

Likely outcomes based on current models for the monster showdown’s third frame stand between the $7.5 million and $10 million marks.

Elsewhere, holdover retention should remain in tact for the majority of key releases. The average weekend-to-weekend drop during the April 9 – 11 period was under 10 percent across the remainder of the top 10 films. With a few more Regal locations opening up this weekend and no significant competition entering the market, there’s little reason to expect sharp declines. Theater counts are also remaining mostly steady.

One factor to consider in the race for second place, however, may be Nobody‘s release on PVOD this Friday. Whether or not that softens its box office appeal just enough to fall behind Disney’s Raya and the Last Dragon and/or Sony’s The Unholy will remain to be seen, but it has thus far developed very encouraging legs.

As new releases go, the stand-out in a limited footprint will be NEON’s In the Earth. Unfortunately, the studio hasn’t confirmed exact location counts, although The Boxoffice Company’s Showtimes Dashboard registers no less than 527 for the weekend — indicating a probable total near or over 550. That could potentially be enough to generate an opening weekend near or among the top ten.

Looking ahead, next Friday brings the launch of Warner Bros.’ latest day-and-date experiment with a well-known brand in the form of Mortal Kombat, while Sony’s FUNinmation will preside over the domestic debut of Demon Slayer: The Movie – Mugen Train — Japan’s biggest box office hit of all time.

This Weekend vs. Last Weekend

Due to the lack of significant new content hitting screens, Boxoffice projects this weekend’s top ten films will decline between 25 and 30 percent from last weekend’s $25.2 million top ten haul, the second best tally of the pandemic era following the previous Easter weekend.

Weekend Forecast

Film Distributor 3-Day Weekend Forecast Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, April 18 Location Count % Change from Last Wknd
Godzilla vs. Kong Warner Bros. Studios $8,700,000 $82,600,000 ~2,900 -37%
Nobody Universal Pictures $2,200,000 $18,700,000 2,405 -17%
Raya and the Last Dragon Walt Disney Pictures $2,000,000 $37,800,000 1,945 -9%
The Unholy Sony Pictures / Screen Gems $2,000,000 $9,500,000 2,057 -17%
Tom & Jerry Warner Bros. Studios $1,100,000 $42,600,000 ~1,700 -9%
Voyagers Lionsgate $775,000 $2,500,000 1,996 -44%
The Girl Who Believes in Miracles Atlas Distribution $500,000* $1,900,000 1,012* -11%
The Courier Roadside Attractions $400,000 $5,500,000 922** -9%
The Croods: A New Age Universal Pictures $225,000 $57,000,000 1,169 -8%
Chaos Walking Lionsgate $200,000 $13,000,000 1,242 -27%

* = revised from previous estimate of $475K and 925 locations following studio confirmation on location count

** = revised from previous estimate of 900 locations following studio confirmation

All forecasts subject to change before the first confirmation of weekend estimates from studios or alternative sources.

Theater counts are updated as confirmed by studios.

Forecasts above do not necessarily represent the top ten, but rather films with the widest theatrical footprint based on studio confirmations entering the weekend.

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