Weekend Box Office Forecast: Matthew Vaughn’s ARGYLLE and THE CHOSEN SEASON 4 Open Amid Slow Winter Market

Photos courtesy Peter Mountain/Universal Pictures; The Chosen / Mike Kubeisy

After last weekend gave the North American market its lowest box office numbers since September of last year, cinemas get a much-needed injection of content in the form of two wide releases on the weekend before the Super Bowl.



February 2, 2024 (WIDE)

Opening Weekend Range: $13M-$21M*


  • Matthew Vaughn’s established fan base, gleaned from his work on the Kingsman, Kick-Ass, and X-Men franchises, should be valuable here. Mainstream interest is potentially heightened by an ensemble cast led by Bryce Dallas Howard, Henry Cavill, Dua Lipa, and others. Early pre-sales are trending ahead of last year’s February kick-off release Knock at the Cabin as well as titles such as Cocaine Bear and The Beekeeper.
  • The Chosen has become a staple of faith-based box office consistency thanks to its acclaim among key audiences. Pre-sale activity is beginning to ramp up as release approaches.

The Chosen: Season 4 Episodes 1 – 3

Fathom Events

February 1, 2024 (WIDE)

Opening Weekend Range: $2.5M-$5.5M


  • Social media sentiment for Argylle has remained mixed in recent weeks with trailer reaction trends not scoring as highly as on Vaughn’s previous hits. As of Wednesday afternoon, early critics’ reactions are trending south with a 34 percent Rotten Tomatoes score across 59 reviews. This could significantly impact late stage pre-sales outside Vaughn’s fans as the weekend approaches, pushing forecasts lower than once anticipated.
  • Where The Chosen is concerned, models are variable due to a few factors: simultaneous ticket availability of multiple episode launches over the course of the next few weeks, the longer runtime of a three-episode feature, and the fact that the Season 4 premiere is pacing behind Season 3’s late 2022 launch. The latter opened on a traditional Friday without Thursday showings.

Current projection ranges call for a 32% decrease from the comparable weekend’s top ten aggregate of $72.2 million in 2023 and a 6% decrease from 2019’s $52.1 million frame (when the Super Bowl was still held on February’s first Sunday).

* revised Thursday morning
** includes Thursday shows

Film Studio 3-Day Weekend Forecast Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, February 4 3-Day % Change from Last Wknd
Argylle Universal Pictures $16,500,000* $16,500,000 NEW
Mean Girls (2023) Paramount Pictures $4,600,000 $67,000,000 -33%
Wonka Warner Bros. Pictures $4,400,000 $200,700,000 -22%
The Beekeeper MGM $4,300,000 $48,300,000 -36%
Migration Universal Pictures & Illumination $4,000,000 $106,000,000 -18%
Anyone But You Sony & Columbia Pictures $3,700,000 $76,500,000 -20%
The Chosen: Season 4 Episodes 1 – 3 Fathom Events $3,200,000** $3,200,000 NEW
American Fiction MGM $2,300,000 $15,000,000 -11%
Poor Things Searchlight Pictures $2,200,000 $28,200,000 -24%
Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom Warner Bros. Pictures $1,800,000 $120,500,000 -34%

All forecasts are subject to revision/finalization before the first confirmation of opening previews or Friday estimates from studios or official sources.

Theater counts are either studio estimates OR unofficial projections if preceded by “~”.

The above table does not necessarily represent exact ranking as some studios do not finalize weekend location counts and/or an intent to report box office returns prior to publishing.

Photos courtesy Peter Mountain/Universal Pictures; The Chosen / Mike Kubeisy

News Stories