After a Father’s Day and Juneteenth frame that rivaled last year and bested the same period in 2019 by 21 percent—despite soft debuts by The Flash and Elemental—June’s penultimate full weekend sees major tentpoles take a rest, as one opener and one expansion hope to find traction in the summer market.
No Hard Feelings
Sony / Columbia Pictures
June 23, 2023 (WIDE)
Opening Weekend Range: $10M-$15M
PROS:
- R-rated comedy No Hard Feelings counters the male-driven action tentpoles dominating the box office this month. Leading into the weekend, pre-sales are pacing ahead of recent adult-skewing comedies Renfield and The Menu.
- Lawrence could provide the necessary star power to sell No Hard Feelings, a la Tatum and Bullock in last year’s The Lost City…
CONS:
- …but her absence from the spotlight in recent years could diminish that star power effect, requiring the film to rely more on staying power and word of mouth. That’s an iffy prospect right now, with reviews mixed at 57 percent approval on Rotten Tomatoes from 37 critics so far.
- R-rated comedies have been on the endangered species list for a few years now, thanks in part to their ubiquitous availability on streaming platforms.
Asteroid City
Focus Features
June 23, 2023 (EXPANSION)
Opening Weekend Range: $7M-$12M
PROS:
- With its platform debut at six locations in New York and Los Angeles last weekend, Asteroid City posted the best per-theater average since La La Land in December 2016.
- The expansion of Wes Anderson’s latest to a wide release could attract his fans nationwide, especially given the dearth of competition in play.
CONS:
- Specialty and arthouse releases of the post-pandemic era haven’t typically expanded beyond limited release in quite the rousing fashion as they often used to, making Asteroid City‘s wide berth something of a wild card.
- Reviews are decidedly mixed, with 74 percent approval rating from critics and 55 percent approval from audiences on Rotten Tomatoes.
Holdovers
- The Flash will retain IMAX and other premium formats in its second frame, giving it some padding on what otherwise looks to be a steep decline.
- Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse will finally enjoy a weekend without direct competition from new releases, enabling it to swing for a relatively soft drop. The same goes for Transformers: Rise of the Beasts‘, entering its third frame. If No Hard Feelings misses breakout performance levels, Spider-Verse has a significant chance to return to the top spot in its fourth outing.
- The Flash‘s audience approval score stands at 85 percent, the same as last year’s Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness. With a litany of other factors playing into The Flash‘s historic misfire, the film is still poised for a big decline, despite the aforementioned premium screen retention.
- In general, male-driven films in particular will feel a bit of an extra hit this weekend coming off the inflated Father’s Day Sunday.
Current projection ranges call for a 35% to 40% percent decrease from last weekend’s $161.3 million top ten aggregate.
| Film | Studio | 3-Day Weekend Forecast | Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, June 25 | Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed) | 3-Day % Change from Last Wknd |
| Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse | Sony / Columbia Pictures | $17,400,000 | $314,800,000 | ~3,700 | -36% |
| The Flash | Warner Bros. Pictures | $17,300,000 | $90,800,000 | ~4,234 | -69% |
| Elemental | Walt Disney Pictures / Pixar | $16,400,000 | $61,600,000 | ~4,035 | -45% |
| No Hard Feelings | Sony / Columbia Pictures | $13,600,000 | $13,600,000 | ~3,000 | NEW |
| Transformers: Rise of the Beasts | Paramount Pictures | $10,800,000 | $122,200,000 | ~3,500 | -48% |
| Asteroid City | Focus Features | $9,000,000 | $10,300,000 | ~1,800 | +970% |
| The Little Mermaid (2023) | Walt Disney Pictures | $7,700,000 | $268,400,000 | ~3,200 | -30% |
| Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 | Disney / Marvel Studios | $3,300,000 | $351,000,000 | ~2,000 | -38% |
| The Blackening | Lionsgate | $2,500,000 | $11,300,000 | ~1,775 | -58% |
| The Boogeyman | 20th Century Studios | $2,000,000 | $36,700,000 | ~1,700 | -45% |
All forecasts are subject to revision/finalization before the first confirmation of opening previews or Friday estimates from studios or official sources.
Theater counts are either studio estimates OR unofficial projections if preceded by “~”.
The above table does not necessarily represent the top ten as some studios do not finalize weekend location counts and/or an intent to report box office returns prior to publishing.
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