Pre-Thanksgiving weekend will see the welcome release of four major studio films as the holiday corridor begins to ramp up with a variety of content.
The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes
Lionsgate
November 17, 2023 (WIDE)
Opening Weekend Range: $42M-$55M
WEEKEND PROS:
- The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes is generating healthy awareness and interest levels from female demographics with pre-sales currently outpacing those of The Marvels at the same point—especially for post-preview business on Friday.
- Trolls Band Together opens in a vacuum of family-driven and animated content, this fall’s PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie having been the only significant release catering to that audience since summer. Early access shows a few weeks ago also performed well.
- Eli Roth and a niche horror fan base could drive Thanksgiving as a solid counter-programming option this weekend as it hopes to benefit from a timely release date. An 85 percent approval rating from 20 critics on Rotten Tomatoes so far is also encouraging.
- Similarly, Taika Waititi’s Next Goal Wins will appeal mostly to domestic soccer (international football) and the filmmaker’s own fan base.
Trolls Band Together
Universal
November 17, 2023 (WIDE)
Opening Weekend Range: $25M-$33M
WEEKEND CONS:
- The Hunger Games prequel is tracking far below its core series predecessors that generated blockbuster-level earnings from 2012 to late 2015. While pre-sales are pacing ahead of The Marvels, and this film comes with a lower budget, there’s still a clear trajectory of diminished returns for the young adult-driven brand that also lacks Jennifer Lawrence’s star power this time around.
- Trolls Band Together, as noted in previous forecasts, needs to overcome its brand exposure in recent years that included a straight-to-streaming movie and a Netflix series. Early reviews are modest with a 62 percent score from 34 critics, and its older female audience could opt for the Hunger Games film instead.
- Horror films are tough sells after Halloween, and Eli Roth’s fans could create some skewed tracking for Thanksgiving that might translate to front-loading on Friday as previews begin late Thursday at 7pm.
- Adjusting for theater counts, Next Goal Wins is currently tracking along the lines of Champions at the same point in its pre-sales cycle and boasts a modest 47 percent from 57 critics.
Thanksgiving
Sony / TriStar
November 17, 2023 (WIDE)
Opening Weekend Range: $10M-$15M
Next Goal Wins
Disney / Searchlight Pictures
November 17, 2023 (WIDE)
Opening Weekend Range: $3M-$7M
Current projection ranges call for a 24% increase from the comparable weekend’s top ten aggregate of $99 million in 2022 and a 37% increase from 2019’s $89.6 million frame.
| Film | Studio | 3-Day Weekend Forecast | Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, November 19 | Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed) | 3-Day % Change from Last Wknd |
| The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes | Lionsgate | $47,100,000 | $47,100,000 | 3,700 | NEW |
| Trolls Band Together | Universal Pictures | $28,200,000 | $28,200,000 | 3,800 | NEW |
| The Marvels | Disney & Marvel Studios | $16,000,000 | $71,300,000 | ~4,030 | -65% |
| Thanksgiving | Sony Pictures & TriStar | $12,000,000 | $12,000,000 | 3,200 | NEW |
| Next Goal Wins | Disney & Searchlight Pictures | $4,200,000 | $4,200,000 | ~2,300 | NEW |
| Five Nights at Freddy’s | Universal Pictures & Blumhouse | $4,000,000 | $133,400,000 | ~3,000 | -55% |
| Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour | AMC Theatres Distribution & Variance Films | $3,100,000 | $176,100,000 | ~1,900 | -49% |
| Priscilla | A24 | $2,800,000 | $18,000,000 | ~2,000 | -42% |
| The Holdovers | Focus Features | $2,700,000 | $8,400,000 | ~1,600 | -16% |
| Killers of the Flower Moon | Paramount Pictures & Apple | $2,600,000 | $64,500,000 | ~2,000 | -43% |
All forecasts are subject to revision/finalization before the first confirmation of opening previews or Friday estimates from studios or official sources.
Theater counts are either studio estimates OR unofficial projections if preceded by “~”.
The above table does not necessarily represent the top ten as some studios do not finalize weekend location counts and/or an intent to report box office returns prior to publishing.
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