Weekend Box Office Forecast: THE MARVELS and JOURNEY TO BETHLEHEM

After a lull in major studio releases during November’s first frame, the month begins to gain some momentum with the release of Marvel Studios’ 33rd cinematic chapter and a new faith-based offering from Sony.

The Marvels

Disney / Marvel Studios

November 10, 2023 (SEMI-WIDE)

Opening Weekend Range: $35M-$49M


  • As far as franchise consistency goes, Marvel remains unsurpassed in terms of widespread brand awareness, established by the studio over the last 15 years. The original Captain Marvel was a runaway blockbuster smash during its 2019 run, earning $426.8 million domestically and $1.13 billion worldwide.
  • The slow autumn market could create some pent-up demand for escapism among audiences beyond loyal Marvel fans. Internet rumors hyping up this film’s post-credit scene could also help lure in some straggling moviegoers who may be on the fence.
  • Veterans Day (observed on Friday) could slightly skew the typically front-loaded nature of MCU films, especially with less urgency driving interest in this sequel than recent films in the overall franchise.


  • Marvel goodwill has, unfortunately, soured over the past couple of years due to middling word of mouth across multiple films and over-exposure of the IP—also underscored by mixed reception—via Disney+ streaming series launched with the intention of expanding the brand.
  • Ongoing industry labor strikes have prevented Brie Larson and cast from promoting the film, contributing to a lackluster marketing campaign which has often leaned on nostalgia rather than showcasing story, character, and how the film might move the franchise forward.
  • Thursday pre-sales currently reflect these inherent and broader franchise challenges, as The Marvels lags 71 percent behind Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 and 74 percent behind Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania at the same point in the pre-release window.
  • With the embargo lifting on Wednesday morning, Rotten Tomatoes critics stand at a 55 percent approval rating across the first 77 published reviews.

Journey to Bethlehem

Sony / AFFIRM Films

November 10, 2023 (SEMI-WIDE)

Opening Weekend Range: $3M-$6M


  • Faith-based audiences could turn out once again to this Biblical musical, which hopes to capture that often under-tracked moviegoer demographic with a holiday season-friendly release.


  • Recent tracking has yet to pop as pre-sales trail the likes of faith-based releases After Death and His Only Son.

Current projection ranges call for a 63% decrease from the comparable weekend’s top ten aggregate of $206.9 million in 2022 and a 24% decrease from 2019’s $100.5 million frame.

Film Studio 3-Day Weekend Forecast Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, November 12 Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed) 3-Day % Change from Last Wknd
The Marvels Disney & Marvel Studios $42,200,000 $42,200,000 ~4,000 NEW
Five Nights at Freddy’s Universal Pictures & Blumhouse $7,600,000 $125,600,000 ~3,600 -60%
Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour AMC Theatres Distribution & Variance Films $7,000,000 $173,800,000 ~3,000 -49%
Killers of the Flower Moon Paramount Pictures & Apple $5,000,000 $60,100,000 ~3,300 -27%
Journey to Bethlehem Sony Pictures & AFFIRM Films $4,000,000 $4,000,000 ~2,000 NEW
Priscilla A24 $3,600,000 $11,200,000 ~2,200 -29%
The Holdovers Focus Features $2,300,000 $3,400,000 ~900 305%
PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie Paramount Pictures $1,600,000 $64,300,000 ~1,900 -21%
Radical Pantelion Films $1,400,000 $4,900,000 ~575 -47%
The Exorcist: Believer Universal Pictures & Blumhouse $1,300,000 $65,200,000 ~1,700 -38%

All forecasts are subject to revision/finalization before the first confirmation of opening previews or Friday estimates from studios or official sources.

Theater counts are either studio estimates OR unofficial projections if preceded by “~”.

The above table does not necessarily represent the top ten as some studios do not finalize weekend location counts and/or an intent to report box office returns prior to publishing.

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