After a lull in major studio releases during November’s first frame, the month begins to gain some momentum with the release of Marvel Studios’ 33rd cinematic chapter and a new faith-based offering from Sony.
Disney / Marvel Studios
November 10, 2023 (SEMI-WIDE)
Opening Weekend Range: $35M-$49M
- As far as franchise consistency goes, Marvel remains unsurpassed in terms of widespread brand awareness, established by the studio over the last 15 years. The original Captain Marvel was a runaway blockbuster smash during its 2019 run, earning $426.8 million domestically and $1.13 billion worldwide.
- The slow autumn market could create some pent-up demand for escapism among audiences beyond loyal Marvel fans. Internet rumors hyping up this film’s post-credit scene could also help lure in some straggling moviegoers who may be on the fence.
- Veterans Day (observed on Friday) could slightly skew the typically front-loaded nature of MCU films, especially with less urgency driving interest in this sequel than recent films in the overall franchise.
- Marvel goodwill has, unfortunately, soured over the past couple of years due to middling word of mouth across multiple films and over-exposure of the IP—also underscored by mixed reception—via Disney+ streaming series launched with the intention of expanding the brand.
- Ongoing industry labor strikes have prevented Brie Larson and cast from promoting the film, contributing to a lackluster marketing campaign which has often leaned on nostalgia rather than showcasing story, character, and how the film might move the franchise forward.
- Thursday pre-sales currently reflect these inherent and broader franchise challenges, as The Marvels lags 71 percent behind Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 and 74 percent behind Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania at the same point in the pre-release window.
- With the embargo lifting on Wednesday morning, Rotten Tomatoes critics stand at a 55 percent approval rating across the first 77 published reviews.
Journey to Bethlehem
Sony / AFFIRM Films
November 10, 2023 (SEMI-WIDE)
Opening Weekend Range: $3M-$6M
- Faith-based audiences could turn out once again to this Biblical musical, which hopes to capture that often under-tracked moviegoer demographic with a holiday season-friendly release.
- Recent tracking has yet to pop as pre-sales trail the likes of faith-based releases After Death and His Only Son.
Current projection ranges call for a 63% decrease from the comparable weekend’s top ten aggregate of $206.9 million in 2022 and a 24% decrease from 2019’s $100.5 million frame.
|Film||Studio||3-Day Weekend Forecast||Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, November 12||Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed)||3-Day % Change from Last Wknd|
|The Marvels||Disney & Marvel Studios||$42,200,000||$42,200,000||~4,000||NEW|
|Five Nights at Freddy’s||Universal Pictures & Blumhouse||$7,600,000||$125,600,000||~3,600||-60%|
|Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour||AMC Theatres Distribution & Variance Films||$7,000,000||$173,800,000||~3,000||-49%|
|Killers of the Flower Moon||Paramount Pictures & Apple||$5,000,000||$60,100,000||~3,300||-27%|
|Journey to Bethlehem||Sony Pictures & AFFIRM Films||$4,000,000||$4,000,000||~2,000||NEW|
|The Holdovers||Focus Features||$2,300,000||$3,400,000||~900||305%|
|PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie||Paramount Pictures||$1,600,000||$64,300,000||~1,900||-21%|
|The Exorcist: Believer||Universal Pictures & Blumhouse||$1,300,000||$65,200,000||~1,700||-38%|
All forecasts are subject to revision/finalization before the first confirmation of opening previews or Friday estimates from studios or official sources.
Theater counts are either studio estimates OR unofficial projections if preceded by “~”.
The above table does not necessarily represent the top ten as some studios do not finalize weekend location counts and/or an intent to report box office returns prior to publishing.