1. Mufasa: The Lion King
Walt Disney Pictures | Week 3
$23.8M Domestic Weekend | $168.6M Domestic Total
$476.4M Global Total
In a roaring comeback for the ages, Disney’s prequel Mufasa: The Lion King has ascended to #1 after two weeks of eating Sonic’s dust. Barry Jenkins’ film took in $23.8M from 3,925 locations for a $6,073 Per Screen Average even as it shed -175 screens, dropping only -35% from the last frame. That’s above our forecast panel’s expectations for this title as the title continues to leg out well in theaters, especially this late in the release period.
That brings the domestic total to $168.6M, which is still under the 2019 remake’s $191.7M opening after three weeks, and also below Sonic 3‘s domestic total. Clearly word-of-mouth has sustained this movie and proven that you can’t always call “time of death” on opening weekend.
Here’s how the close 3-Day race looked, with a $2.6M difference between Mufasa and Sonic…
- Friday – Mufasa ($7.6M) vs Sonic ($6.9M)
- Saturday – Mufasa ($9.8M) vs Sonic ($8.95M)
- Sunday – Mufasa ($6.4M) vs Sonic ($5.35M)
While the competition between these two titles is fierce, it has also driven the overall box office over +16% higher than this first frame in 2024. In fact, Mufasa and Sonic 3 alone ($45M) nearly outgrossed the Top 4 from the same frame last year ($46.2M), which is a good omen for the year to come as far as theaters are concerned.
Overseas, Mufasa brought in an additional $53.5M from 52 material territories for an international total of $307.8M and a global gross of $476.4M. An estimated $3.3M of that came from the global IMAX box office, totaling $31M WW in the large format (about half of that domestic). The top 3 markets are France ($30.9M), the UK ($25.9M), and Mexico ($21.4M). Germany, Italy, and India are also performing well, meaning the movie composed entirely of animal characters is translating into non-English-speaking markets. However, China ($13.8M) is a disappointment compared to the 2019 Lion King ($120.4M China total). Overall, this is good news for Disney as foreign numbers push this expensive movie into the black, while domestically, it gets to finally capitalize on being the #1 movie in America.
2. Sonic the Hedgehog 3
Paramount Pictures | Week 3
$21.2M Domestic Weekend | $187.5M Domestic Total
$336.3M Global Total
Paramount’s Sonic the Hedgehog 3 nearly made another sprint to the top of the weekend box office relay but was narrowly thwarted by Mufasa, taking #2 with $21.2M on 3,746 screens for a PSA of $5,659, a -43% drop from frame 2. That’s in line with our high-end estimate ahead of the weekend. Sonic is also officially one of Paramount’s blue-chip franchises as the series has now amassed over a billion at the global box office with $1.043B between the trilogy.
Overseas Sonic 3 earned an additional $51.2M, dropping only -36% in like markets from last weekend. This brings the global total to $336.3M, topping the first movie’s $302.5M. These modestly-priced films’ success as a family franchise should be celebrated, but they’re still nowhere near an apex Paramount franchise where single films can cross a billion, ala Transformers: Dark of the Moon ($1.123B) or Top Gun: Maverick ($1.458B).
All three Sonic films have averaged out to around $350M WW each, which indicates a firm ceiling given the kid-targeted fare. Still, at the end of the day the third Sonic will likely shake out to be a much more profitable affair than Mufasa on the studio’s end.
Other Notable Performances
Robert Eggers’ Nosferatu remake dropped -39% in its second weekend to come in at #3 with $13.2M on 3,132 screens (+140) for a PSA of $4,215. This is in the upper realms of our forecast, proving the movie has enough momentum to take it through the winter. It is comparable to the -42% drop experienced by The Witch in 2015. Domestically, the movie has now collected $69.4M, making it the fourth-highest-grossing horror title released in 2024 below Longlegs ($74.3M). Internationally, it took in $26.8M as it bowed in an additional 56 markets, including the UK & Ireland ($6.6M), Mexico ($3.47M), Italy ($2.2M), and Australia ($1.99M) for a total of 61 territories. The global total now stands at $100.3M.
A24’s Nicole Kidman-led erotic thriller Babygirl made an estimated $4.49M in its second frame on 2,164 screens (+49) to land at #7, which in-and-of-itself is unremarkable except that it is an identical gross and chart placement as last week. The pic directed by Halina Reijn (Bodies Bodies Bodies) has collected $16.1M so far.
Boutique distributor Vertical made an attempt to capitalize on Nosferatu by releasing the similarly-gothic period horror flick The Damned into 732 locations where it grossed $801K for a $1,094 PSA to chart at #12. According to Rotten Tomatoes, international co-production The Damned got similar critical praise to Nosferatu (84% vs 85%) but the audience score was 48% rotten.
Paramount’s Gladiator II (#8, $2.6M) is on the precipice of surpassing the first movie globally with $449.6M vs $451.6M, and should cross over in the next day or two.
Sunday’s Studio Weekend Estimates
Weekend 1 – 2025
Total 3-Day Domestic Estimates:
$102,903,111M | (+16.5% vs 2024)
| Title | Weekend Estimate | % Change | Locations | Location Change | PSA | Domestic Total | Week | Distributor |
| Mufasa: The Lion King | $23,836,000 | -35% | 3,925 | -175 | $6,073 | $168,600,931 | 3 | Walt Disney |
| Sonic the Hedgehog 3 | $21,200,000 | -43% | 3,746 | -23 | $5,659 | $187,508,000 | 3 | Paramount Pi… |
| Nosferatu | $13,200,000 | -39% | 3,132 | 140 | $4,215 | $69,401,000 | 2 | Focus Features |
| Moana 2 | $12,397,000 | -34% | 3,345 | -60 | $3,706 | $425,152,483 | 6 | Walt Disney |
| Wicked | $10,200,000 | -48% | 3,287 | 110 | $3,103 | $450,752,000 | 7 | Universal |
| A Complete Unknown | $8,067,000 | -31% | 2,835 | n/c | $2,846 | $41,696,667 | 2 | Searchlight … |
| Babygirl | $4,492,499 | n/c | 2,164 | 49 | $2,076 | $16,112,999 | 2 | A24 |
| Gladiator II | $2,675,000 | -35% | 1,748 | -117 | $1,530 | $168,867,000 | 7 | Paramount Pi… |
| Homestead | $2,103,576 | -32% | 1,700 | -69 | $1,237 | $17,475,156 | 3 | Angel Studios |
| The Fire Inside | $1,229,901 | -37% | 2,032 | 26 | $605 | $7,128,870 | 2 | Amazon MGM S… |
| Kraven the Hunter | $1,052,000 | -35% | 1,862 | -575 | $565 | $23,700,000 | 4 | Sony Pictures |
| Se7en | $915,000 | 200 | $4,575 | $100,908,157 | 1,529 | New Line | ||
| The Damned | $801,000 | 732 | $1,094 | $801,000 | 1 | Vertical Ent… | ||
| The Brutalist | $244,341 | 16% | 8 | 1 | $30,543 | $1,171,475 | 3 | A24 |
| Flow | $216,100 | 19% | 127 | 18 | $1,702 | $2,606,455 | 7 | Janus Films |
| The Count of Monte Cristo | $208,000 | +1,145% | 93 | 89 | $2,237 | $281,770 | 3 | Samuel Goldw… |
| Nickel Boys | $151,339 | 343% | 18 | 13 | $8,408 | $412,648 | 4 | Amazon MGM S… |
| Anora | $147,000 | 16% | 105 | -10 | $1,400 | $14,372,466 | 12 | Neon |
| A Real Pain | $132,000 | 14% | 105 | 5 | $1,257 | $7,870,102 | 10 | Searchlight … |
| The Best Christmas Pageant Ever | $95,000 | -71% | 335 | -162 | $284 | $40,017,867 | 9 | Lionsgate |
| All We Imagine as Light | $74,500 | 44% | 44 | 13 | $1,693 | $752,291 | 8 | Janus Films |
| Conclave | $65,000 | -16% | 56 | -1 | $1,161 | $31,399,000 | 11 | Focus Features |
| September 5 | $59,000 | 159% | 13 | 8 | $4,538 | $291,000 | 4 | Paramount Pi… |
| The Seed of the Sacred Fig | $35,000 | -5% | 20 | 2 | $1,750 | $302,580 | 6 | Neon |
| Better Man | $27,000 | 0 | 6 | n/c | $4,500 | $89,000 | 2 | Paramount Pi… |
| The Wild Robot | $27,000 | -28% | 112 | 10 | $241 | $143,233,000 | 15 | Universal |
| Vermiglio | $17,300 | 108% | 3 | 2 | $5,767 | $31,712 | 2 | Janus Films |
| Santosh | $4,801 | -6% | 2 | 1 | $2,401 | $14,097 | 2 | Metrograph P… |
Share this post