Weekend Estimates: ‘Aquaman’ Pacing for Another $30M, Becomes Top DC Overseas Earner; ‘Mary Poppins Returns’ Eyes $17M; ‘Escape Room’ Scores Strong $16M Debut

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Saturday Update: Warner Bros. reports Aquaman added another $9.3 million on Friday, raising its domestic haul to $238.3 million after 15 days in release. A third domestic frame around $30 million appears likely at this point.

Perhaps even more impressively, the studio adds that the film added $12.4 million and became the highest grossing DC movie of all-time in the overseas market as it reached $649.3 million outside North America yesterday. That tops The Dark Knight Rises ($636.8 million) — with a number of asterisks — and raises Aquaman‘s global haul to an excellent $887.6 million (including $279.4 million from China).

Back on the domestic front, Sony’s Escape Room is somewhat over-performing as it posted $7.7 million on opening day. That includes Thursday’s $2.345 million start from shows beginning at 4pm, which will likely skew weekend projections at this stage. Either way, this is a great start for the low-budget thriller. Sony expects around $16 million for the weekend.

Mary Poppins Returns took third place with $5.07 million and an updated $128.03 million domestic cume, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse ranked fourth with $4.055 million and an updated $124.9 million haul, and Bumblebee capped the top five with $3.94 million / $88.3 million domestic total.

Just outside the top five, The Mule continues to hold very well as it added $2.86 million and now stands at $74.9 million.

Expanding from 65 to 335 locations yesterday, award season contender If Beale Street Could Talk earned $604K and now stands at $3.2 million.

Early weekend estimates are below with studio updates to follow on Sunday.

Early Weekend Estimates (Domestic)
FRI, JAN. 4 – SUN, JAN. 6

WIDE (1000+)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Aquaman $30,000,000 -42% 4,184 59 $7,170 $259,020,880 4 Warner Bros.
2 Mary Poppins Returns $17,000,000 -40% 4,090 0 $4,156 $139,956,305 3 Disney
3 Escape Room $16,000,000 2,717 $5,889 $16,000,000 1 Sony Pictures
4 Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse $12,900,000 -31% 3,419 -394 $3,773 $133,751,346 4 Sony / Columbia
5 Bumblebee $12,800,000 -39% 3,597 47 $3,559 $97,153,140 3 Paramount Pictures
6 The Mule $8,800,000 -28% 3,212 425 $2,740 $80,868,110 4 Warner Bros.
7 Vice $5,500,000 -29% 2,534 92 $2,170 $29,492,988 2 Annapurna
8 Ralph Breaks the Internet $4,800,000 -29% 2,050 -293 $2,341 $187,279,171 7 Disney
9 Second Act $4,800,000 -35% 2,523 -84 $1,902 $32,837,075 4 STX Entertainment
10 Holmes and Watson $3,400,000 -54% 2,780 4 $1,223 $28,410,922 3 Sony Pictures
11 Bohemian Rhapsody $2,300,000 -2% 1,080 199 $2,130 $193,576,825 10 20th Century Fox
12 Mary Queen of Scots $2,200,000 -19% 1,052 211 $2,091 $13,478,025 5 Focus Features
13 Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch $1,300,000 -68% 1,622 -933 $801 $269,753,735 9 Universal

LIMITED (100 — 999)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 If Beale Street Could Talk $2,000,000 161% 335 270 $5,970 $4,565,864 4 Annapurna
2 The Favourite $1,900,000 -22% 771 -39 $2,464 $19,294,336 7 Fox Searchlight
3 Green Book $1,700,000 -10% 566 -55 $3,004 $35,123,256 8 Universal Pictures
4 On The Basis Of Sex $1,700,000 148% 112 79 $15,179 $3,798,395 2 Focus Features
5 Creed II $960,000 -39% 893 -175 $1,075 $114,333,952 7 MGM / Warner Bros
6 Robin Hood $770,000 591% 139 -50 $5,540 $31,493,508 7 Lionsgate / Summit
7 Instant Family $720,000 -25% 604 -140 $1,192 $66,230,028 8 Paramount Pictures
8 Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald $680,000 -31% 401 -114 $1,696 $158,088,573 8 Warner Bros.
9 A Star is Born $610,000 24% 268 32 $2,276 $202,085,867 14 Warner Bros.
10 The Nutcracker and the Four Realms $105,000 -41% 172 -46 $610 $54,799,921 10 Walt Disney Pictures

PLATFORM (1 — 99)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Destroyer $110,000 99% 6 3 $18,333 $259,786 2 Annapurna Pictures

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Friday Report: Sony’s Escape Room got off to a strong debut as the first domestic release of 2019, earning $2.345 million yesterday. Comparisons are limited, however, since the film debuted earlier than normal — at 4pm — in an estimated 2,386 locations. The most recent comparison is last January’s Insidious: The Last Key, which opened to $1.98 million from Thursday shows beginning later in the evening (and one extra day removed from holiday vacation time).

The studio still projects around $10 million for the weekend, although that appears to be conservative at this point. Despite the early start and what is effectively three-fourths of a full opening day’s worth of showtimes yesterday, a weekend tally around or north of mid-teen millions is increasingly likely.

More updates to follow throughout the weekend.

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