Weekend Estimates: Captain Marvel Pacing for Another $70M; Wonder Park Overperforming at $18M; Five Feet Apart Eyes Healthy $13M Debut

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Saturday Update: Disney reports this morning that Captain Marvel added another $19.05 million on Friday, lifting its impressive eight-day domestic haul to $215.9 million. That keeps the film 8 percent ahead of the pace of Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 ($199.65 million through eight days) and 3.5 percent ahead of The Hunger Games ($208.6 million), while sending it past the final domestic gross of Thor: The Dark World ($206.4 million).

Disney will release a further global update on Sunday, but for now it appears Captain Marvel remains on track for a sophomore frame around $70 million stateside.

Lionsgate and CBS debuted Five Feet Apart to very healthy numbers on Friday, taking in $5.366 million — 16 percent ahead of Love, Simon‘s $4.6 million first day one year ago. The studio reports strong early word of mouth with an “A” Cinemascore overall and “A+” from audiences under the age of 18. They’re estimating a weekend between $12.5 million and $13 million.

Paramount’s Wonder Park is significantly over-performing to begin the weekend after taking in $5.35 million on opening day, 91 percent more than Sherlock Gnomes‘ first day ($2.8 million). Despite Wonder Park‘s pre-release tracking metrics closely matching those of the aforementioned Gnomes, parents with young kids have turned out in far stronger numbers than expected — likely in part due to the aid of Spring Break in some areas of the country, as well as the older-leaning appeal of films like Captain Marvel and How to Train Your Dragon 3. The Paramount toon’s current trajectory sets the stage for what could be an opening weekend close to $18 million in second place.

Rounding out the wide releases of the weekend, Focus Features’ Captive State grossed $1.265 million from 2,548 locations on Friday. That’s slightly below the $1.518 million first-day earnings of The Belko Experiment in March 2017. We’re currently projecting an opening weekend around $3.4 million.

Meanwhile, No Manches Frida 2 impressed in its limited debut with $1.3 million from 472 locations. The sequel marks yet another success for Pantelion Films, which has made a name for itself after a string of strategically scheduled box office successes aimed at the Latinx audience. Distributor Lionsgate expects around $4 million this weekend.

Early weekend estimates are below with updated studio estimates to follow on Sunday.

Early Weekend Estimates (Domestic)
FRI, MAR. 15 – SUN, MAR. 17

WIDE (1000+)

# TITLE WEEKEND   LOCATIONS   AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Captain Marvel $70,000,000 -54% 4,310 0 $16,241 $266,895,933 2 Disney
2 Wonder Park $18,000,000 3,838 $4,690 $18,000,000 1 Paramount
3 Five Feet Apart $13,000,000 2,803 $4,638 $13,000,000 1 CBS Films
4 How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World $9,500,000 -35% 3,727 -315 $2,549 $135,799,095 7 Universal / DreamWorks Animation
5 Tyler Perry’s A Madea Family Funeral $7,900,000 -37% 2,350 -92 $3,362 $58,883,015 3 Lionsgate
6 Captive State $3,400,000 2,548 $1,334 $3,400,000 1 Focus Features
7 The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part $2,200,000 -43% 2,046 -884 $1,075 $101,384,713 8 Warner Bros.
8 Alita: Battle Angel $1,900,000 -41% 1,696 -678 $1,120 $81,821,539 5 20th Century Fox
9 Isn’t It Romantic $1,300,000 -43% 1,366 -857 $952 $46,401,440 5 Warner Bros.
10 Green Book $1,300,000 -48% 1,320 -777 $985 $82,643,031 18 Universal Pictures
11 Fighting With My Family $1,200,000 -45% 1,580 -875 $759 $20,991,773 5 MGM

LIMITED (100 — 999)

# TITLE WEEKEND   LOCATIONS   AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 No Manches Frida 2 $4,000,000 472 $8,475 $4,000,000 1 Lionsgate / Pantelion Films
2 Apollo 11 $4,000,000 220% 588 183 $6,803 $8,314,883 3 Neon
3 What Men Want $780,000 -37% 587 -475 $1,329 $780,000 6 Paramount
4 Greta $700,000 -68% 980 -1437 $714 $10,029,700 3 Focus Features
5 Happy Death Day 2U $365,000 -58% 486 -612 $751 $27,544,685 5 Universal Pictures
6 Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse $330,000 -49% 366 -458 $902 $189,495,053 14 Sony / Columbia
7 The Kid $300,000 -42% 268 0 $1,119 $1,083,426 2 Lionsgate
8 A Star is Born $250,000 -66% 443 -367 $564 $215,076,514 24 Warner Bros.
9 Everybody Knows $240,000 -46% 248 -35 $968 $2,290,021 6 Focus Features
10 Bohemian Rhapsody $225,000 -41% 256 -130 $879 $215,671,836 20 20th Century Fox
11 Glass $220,000 -36% 262 -124 $840 $110,532,530 9 Universal
12 Cold Pursuit $210,000 -59% 376 -447 $559 $31,590,147 6 Lionsgate / Summit
13 Ralph Breaks the Internet $195,000 -23% 172 -37 $1,134 $200,827,387 17 Disney
14 Mary Poppins Returns $130,000 -25% 182 -33 $714 $171,701,404 13 Disney
15 The Favourite $115,000 -56% 143 -135 $804 $34,047,547 17 Fox Searchlight

PLATFORM (1 — 99)

# TITLE WEEKEND   LOCATIONS   AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 The Mustang $85,000 4 $21,250 $85,000 1 Focus Features
2 The Aftermath $60,000 5 $12,000 $60,000 1 Fox Searchlight

Friday Report: Early estimates for Thursday show Captain Marvel registered another $9.1 million, completing its first full week of domestic release with an excellent $196.8 million — 7 percent ahead of the pace of Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 ($183.2 million) and 4 percent ahead of The Hunger Games ($189.9 million) through the same point. We continue to expect a sophomore weekend around $70 million or higher.

Globally, the Marvel blockbuster stands at $575.5 million after an additional $16.1 million earned overseas on Thursday. China accounts for $107.8 million of that total.

Three new entrants joined the market last night, starting with Five Feet Apart‘s $715K start for Lionsgate/CBS. That lands in between the Thursday night debuts of comparable titles Love, Simon ($850K) and Everything, Everything ($530K).

Not far behind was Paramount’s Wonder Park, earning $700K from shows starting at 4pm at 2,620 locations. The closest comparison for a recent animated pic opening during Spring Break is last year’s Sherlock Gnomes, but that film didn’t hold Thursday shows.

Meanwhile, Captive State scored a $300K start from 7pm shows at 2,500 locations. That’s comparable to Hotel Artemis ($271K) and The Belko Experiment ($310K).

More updates throughout the weekend.

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