Weekend Estimates: How to Train Your Dragon 3 Soars to $55M+ Debut; Alita Adds $11M+; Fighting With My Family Pins $7M+

test
test

Saturday Update: It’s been rare to report in early 2019, but the weekend’s top-line opener has beaten expectations as How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World landed with a strong $17.49 million opening day on Friday. That includes Thursday night’s $3 million, while excluding $2.5 million from Fandango screenings at 1,000 locations on February 2.

By comparison, the opening day more than doubles LEGO Movie 2 ($8.5 million), bests Hotel Transylvania 3 by 3.5 percent (despite that title opening mid-summer), and was just 5 percent behind How to Train Your Dragon 2 ($18.44 million) — which also had the benefit of a mid-summer opening nearly five years ago.

Universal’s projections this morning stand at $58.12 million (again, excluding February 2 earnings). Due to the considerable fan following of the franchise, we wouldn’t be entirely surprised if that’s a slightly bullish scenario and could reasonably see a debut closer to $55 million — but that is on the lower end of possibilities at this point given the strong reception to the franchise finale.

Moving down to second pace, Alita: Battle Angel added $3.14 million to begin its second weekend. With $51.8 million in the domestic bank, Fox projects an $11.325 million sophomore frame.

Fighting With My Family opened on target with forecasts as it posted $2.55 million on Friday in its wide expansion to 2,711 locations. That’s 31 percent ahead of the first day take by Eddie the Eagle ($1.94 million). A weekend north of $7 million appears likely.

Isn’t It Romantic tacked on another $2.225 million yesterday for an updated cume of $28.5 million, while LEGO Movie 2 capped the top five with $2.185 million and an updated tally of $75.8 million.

Early weekend estimates below (all Fox titles are official studio projections). Updated estimates from all studios to follow on Sunday.

Early Weekend Estimates (Domestic)
FRI, FEB. 22 – SUN, FEB. 24

WIDE (1000+)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World $58,120,000 4,259 $13,646 $60,620,000 4 Universal / DreamWorks Animation
2 Alita: Battle Angel $11,325,000 -60% 3,802 12 $2,979 $60,006,068 2 20th Century Fox
3 The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part $10,200,000 -51% 3,833 -470 $2,661 $83,804,039 5 Warner Bros.
4 Fighting With My Family $7,400,000 5232% 2,711 2707 $2,730 $7,615,021 2 MGM
5 Isn’t It Romantic $7,000,000 -51% 3,444 0 $2,033 $33,258,742 2 Warner Bros.
6 What Men Want $4,700,000 -56% 2,389 -523 $1,967 $44,561,066 3 Paramount
7 Happy Death Day 2U $4,600,000 -52% 3,212 5 $1,432 $21,222,880 2 Universal Pictures
8 The Upside $3,500,000 -36% 2,148 -633 $1,629 $100,029,409 7 STX Entertainment
9 Cold Pursuit $3,100,000 -48% 2,320 -310 $1,336 $26,885,567 3 Lionsgate / Summit
10 Green Book $2,100,000 -27% 1,253 -365 $1,676 $69,617,686 15 Universal Pictures
11 Glass $1,800,000 -54% 1,446 -1003 $1,245 $107,965,055 6 Universal

LIMITED (100 — 999)

# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Run The Race $2,200,000 853 $2,579 $2,200,000 1 Roadside Attractions
2 Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse $930,000 -54% 743 -464 $1,252 $184,970,025 11 Sony / Columbia
3 Total Dhamaal $835,000 202 $4,134 $835,000 1 FIP
4 Aquaman $715,000 -61% 741 -523 $965 $332,890,547 11 Warner Bros.
5 The Favourite $645,000 0% 288 -36 $2,240 $32,212,728 14 Fox Searchlight
6 A Star is Born $620,000 -21% 745 -98 $832 $210,853,198 21 Warner Bros.
7 Bohemian Rhapsody $600,000 -39% 424 -138 $1,415 $213,093,500 17 20th Century Fox
8 Vice $570,000 -1% 702 0 $812 $47,052,650 9 Annapurna
9 They Shall Not Grow Old $495,000 -51% 448 -178 $1,105 $16,354,374 10 Warner Bros.
10 Ralph Breaks the Internet $410,000 -59% 406 -948 $1,010 $199,902,967 14 Disney
11 Miss Bala $330,000 -65% 515 -657 $641 $14,594,070 4 Sony Pictures
12 A Dog’s Way Home $245,000 -72% 417 -463 $588 $41,153,272 7 Sony Pictures
13 Mary Poppins Returns $200,000 -52% 234 -111 $855 $170,939,253 10 Disney
14 Bumblebee $200,000 -55% 228 -356 $877 $126,911,045 10 Paramount Pictures
15 Escape Room $180,000 -70% 264 -371 $682 $56,112,826 8 Sony Pictures
16 If Beale Street Could Talk $160,000 -27% 127 -38 $1,260 $14,441,900 11 Annapurna

===

Friday Report: Universal’s How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World scored a strong $3 million start from Thursday night shows beginning at 6pm in approximately 3,200 theaters. That excludes $2.5 million earned from Fandango’s early screenings held on Saturday, February 2.

Last night’s start by itself compares very favorably with similar titles, doubling that of The LEGO Movie 2 ($1.5 million, excluding $600K from pre-Thursday shows), 15 percent ahead of Hotel Transylvania 3 ($2.6 million), 36 percent ahead of The LEGO Batman Movie ($2.2 million), and 50 percent ahead of How to Train Your Dragon 2 ($2.0 million).

The animated trilogy-capper’s international gross stands at $185 million from 49 markets through Thursday. Nine new markets are slated to open this weekend.

Meanwhile, Fighting With My Family began its wide expansion in positive fashion last night with $450K. That comes in significantly ahead of Eddie the Eagle‘s $180K Thursday night start on the same weekend three years ago.

News Stories