Saturday Update: Paramount has a bona fide hit on their hands as Sonic the Hedgehog bowed to $21 million on opening day Friday. Though slightly inflated by Valentine’s Day, that figure topped Detective Pikachu‘s $20.6 million first day last May, as well as the $14.9 million opening day of Spongebob: Sponge Out of Water five years ago. We’re currently projecting a $53 million three-day weekend and $63.9 million four-day bow through Presidents Day Monday, though it remains to be seen if any fan front-loading may have contributed to the excellent Friday performance.
Birds of Prey added $6.35 million on Friday, off 51 percent from opening day last Friday and bringing its domestic haul to $48.5 million through eight days. Its sophomore frame should ring up around $17 million for the three-day, $19.8 million for the four-day.
Universal’s The Photograph opened to a healthy $6.28 million on Friday, though that came in below our final pre-weekend forecast as well as the first day of About Last Night ($12.9 million) six years ago this exact day — despite outperforming that film’s Thursday night start. The three-day start now looks to register around $11.1 million ($12 million four-day) if it proves to be as front-loaded as past Valentine’s Day releases, though positive reviews could help it leg out.
Blumhouse’s Fantasy Island registered $5.4 million yesterday as it opened with appeal to teenage audiences on the date holiday. Look for an $11 million / $12 million three-day / four-day split based on current projections.
Bad Boys for Life capped the top five with another $4.03 million yesterday, now standing at $174.1 million stateside. $10.3 million / $11.6 million is the weekend split the hit action sequel appears to be trending toward.
Searchlight Pictures’ Downhill opened to $2.091 million on Friday and is aiming for a $4.3 million / $4.8 million weekend debut.
Early three-day estimates are below, with studio estimates to follow on Sunday and Monday, followed by final results on Tuesday.
Early Weekend Estimates (Domestic)
FRI, FEB. 14 – SUN, FEB. 16
| # | TITLE | WEEKEND | LOCATIONS | AVG. | TOTAL | WKS. | DIST. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sonic The Hedgehog | $50,000,000 | — | 4,167 | — | $11,999 | $50,000,000 | 1 | Paramount |
| 2 | Birds of Prey (And the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn) | $16,800,000 | -49% | 4,236 | 0 | $3,966 | $58,958,302 | 2 | Warner Bros. |
| 3 | The Photograph | $11,100,000 | — | 2,516 | — | $4,412 | $11,100,000 | 1 | Universal Pictures |
| 4 | Fantasy Island | $11,000,000 | — | 2,784 | — | $3,951 | $11,000,000 | 1 | Sony Pictures |
| 5 | Bad Boys For Life | $10,400,000 | -13% | 3,185 | -345 | $3,265 | $180,422,306 | 5 | Sony / Columbia |
| 6 | 1917 | $8,000,000 | -13% | 3,084 | -464 | $2,594 | $144,324,984 | 8 | Universal Pictures |
| 7 | Jumanji: The Next Level | $6,700,000 | 21% | 2,410 | -319 | $2,780 | $306,716,286 | 10 | Sony Pictures |
| 8 | Dolittle | $6,400,000 | -2% | 2,869 | -593 | $2,231 | $71,851,515 | 5 | Universal |
| 9 | Parasite (1982) | $5,600,000 | — | 2,001 | — | $2,799 | $5,600,000 | 1980 | Embassy |
| 10 | Downhill | $4,300,000 | — | 2,301 | — | $1,869 | $4,300,000 | 1 | Fox Searchlight |
| 11 | The Gentlemen | $3,300,000 | -22% | 1,802 | -755 | $1,831 | $3,300,000 | 4 | STX Entertainment |
| 12 | Knives Out | $2,500,000 | 9% | 1,154 | -289 | $2,166 | $162,211,017 | 12 | Lionsgate |
| 13 | Gretel & Hansel | $1,800,000 | -50% | 1,645 | -1362 | $1,094 | $1,800,000 | 3 | United Artists Releasing |
| 14 | Little Women | $1,300,000 | -45% | 1,035 | -770 | $1,256 | $105,103,006 | 8 | Sony Pictures |
| # | TITLE | WEEKEND | LOCATIONS | AVG. | TOTAL | WKS. | DIST. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Star Wars: The Rise Of Skywalker | $1,400,000 | -39% | 992 | -754 | $1,411 | $512,886,363 | 9 | Disney |
| 2 | Jojo Rabbit | $1,000,000 | -34% | 484 | -612 | $2,066 | $31,855,308 | 18 | Fox Searchlight |
| 3 | Just Mercy | $950,000 | -37% | 846 | -469 | $1,123 | $34,930,166 | 8 | Warner Bros. |
| 4 | Frozen II | $775,000 | -44% | 716 | -415 | $1,082 | $475,462,703 | 13 | Disney |
| 5 | The Turning | $650,000 | -56% | 610 | -1238 | $1,066 | $15,176,565 | 4 | Universal Pictures |
| 6 | Spies in Disguise | $500,000 | -50% | 519 | -281 | $963 | $65,642,404 | 8 | 20th Century Fox |
| 7 | Ford v. Ferrari | $400,000 | -38% | 293 | -450 | $1,365 | $117,033,518 | 14 | 20th Century Fox |
| 8 | Bombshell | $110,000 | -50% | 128 | -144 | $859 | $31,486,054 | 10 | Lionsgate |
| 9 | Like a Boss | $90,000 | -57% | 122 | -173 | $738 | $22,143,142 | 6 | Paramount Pictures |
| # | TITLE | WEEKEND | LOCATIONS | AVG. | TOTAL | WKS. | DIST. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Underwater | $50,000 | -61% | 77 | -149 | $649 | $17,116,476 | 6 | 20th Century Fox |
Friday Update: Various sources report Paramount’s Sonic the Hedgehog earned an estimated $3 million from last night’s previews beginning at 5pm in approximately 3,150 locations, setting up the video game adaptation for what looks to be a much-needed strong debut over the long holiday frame.
Related Coverage: Weekend Box Office Forecast: Sonic the Hedgehog Tracking for Possible Breakout; Blumhouse’s Fantasy Island & The Photograph Aim to Leverage Double-Holiday Frame
Playing the usual comparison game, Sonic registered more than triple the start of Dolittle‘s $925K kick-off leading into MLK weekend last month. It also matched up with How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World‘s $3 million start one year ago, while topping the $2.2 million start by The LEGO Batman Movie in February 2017.
Those latter two films ended up with domestic three-day weekends north of $50 million, a good indicator that something similar could be in store for Sonic given the Valentine’s and Presidents Day boosts factoring in.
Meanwhile, Universal’s The Photograph posted $650K from 2,250 locations and shows starting at 7pm last night. That’s north of the $530K start from About Last Night back in 2014 when it also opened on the same calendar-aligned holiday weekend.
Sony did not screen Blumhouse’s Fantasy Island in previews last night.
As always, it’s worth noting that preview business has continued to evolve and means these comparisons may not be as direct as usual given the holiday involvement. We’ll have further updates throughout the weekend.
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